Radio France Internationale posted on 3 August 2026 an article titled "Hundreds Flee Ethiopia to War-torn Sudan Following New Fighting in Tigray."
Hundreds of Ethiopians fled to Sudan following the outbreak of conflict on 1 August between federal government troops and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in western Tigray region. They joined thousands of Ethiopian refugees inside Sudan from the 2020-2022 war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF.
The China Global South Project published on 31 July 2026 an analysis titled "Are Chinese and Turkish Drones Fueling Conflicts in Africa?" by Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu.
China and Türkiye are Africa's primary supplier of drones, which increasingly are used in conflict situations. Türkiye sells them directly to African militaries engaged in conflict, including in Libya, Sudan, DRC, and Rwanda. China sells them directly to both conflicting parties in the DRC and Rwanda but those used by Marshall Haftar's army in Libya and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan were transferred by the UAE.
The author concluded that while these drone sales do not start wars, both China and Türkiye insert themselves into pre-existing conflicts fueled by political rivalries, regional tensions, and economic interests.
The Conversation published on 16 July 2026 a discussion summary titled "Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease" by Daniel Maxwell, Alex de Waal, Luka Kuol, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Peter Hailey.
The impacts of a strengthening El Nino and effects of the war in Iran combined with existing prolonged crisis and conflict in the Horn of Africa are leading potentially to a major, multicountry polycrisis.
The Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker posted on 12 June 2026 an updated background piece titled "Instability in South Sudan."
Ten million South Sudanese--nearly 84 percent of the population--need humanitarian assistance, as reports of airstrikes on civilian areas, sexual violence, and forced recruitment have escalated since March 2025.
Facility for Talo and Leadership Somalia, a policy institute and training center, posted on 9 June 2026 an article titled "Turkish Delegation Works to Ease Somalia Election Standoff."
A Turkish delegation visited Mogadishu in an effort to facilitate direct negotiations between President Hassan Sheikh and his political opponents concerning a postponed election. Turkey has frequently intervened to mediate disputes in Somalia.
The New York Times published on 4 June 2026 an article titled "What to Know About the Fighting in Somalia's Capital, Mogadishu" by Hussein Mohamed and Matthew Mpoke Bigg.
On 4 June, government forces began fighting militia groups loyal to two of the president's rivals in Mogadishu, resulting in the worst violence there in years. The clashes stemmed from Parliament's contentious decision to extend President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term of office for another year beyond its expiration date.
China-Africa Security Radar published on 21 April 2026 an article titled "Recent Study Maps How Conflict in Africa Shapes Chinese Investment."
A recent study by scholars affiliated with the People's Public Security University of China maps how China's expanding presence in Africa intersects with regions already characterized by persistent and, in many cases, escalating conflict. The study tracks how armed conflict across Africa has evolved between 1997 and 2024 and what this shift means for China's economic and strategic exposure, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative.
The authors identify a consistent pattern, which is that in certain contexts, weaknesses in labor relations, environmental management, and community engagement can contribute to local dissatisfaction. In some cases, this dissatisfaction escalates into protests or localized unrest around Chinese projects. As China's economic presence expands across conflict affected regions, the question of protecting overseas assets and personnel has become more central.
The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 15 April 2026 a paper titled "Instability in the Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia Borderlands" by Christopher Hockey, Timothy Kimaiyo, and Martine Zeuthen.
The paper provides critical insights into the complex dynamics of instability in the Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia borderlands. It highlights the interconnected challenges of violent extremism, gender-based violence, ethnic tensions, political instability and resource pressures, offering practical recommendations for future interventions.
Ethiopia Insight published on 28 March 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Heads to Elections Amid War and Instability" by Eyob Tilahun Abera, Mekelle University.
Ethiopia is scheduled to have national elections in June. Scattered conflict in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions poses serious challenges to organizing and campaigning. The author argues that elections held under such conditions could deepen divisions within the country.
The Washington Post published on 18 March 2026 an editorial titled "Ethiopia Starts to Bury Its Marxist Past."
The editorial comments favorably on floating Ethiopia's currency in mid-2024, allowing foreign banks to operate in the country for the first time, launching the first stock exchange of the modern era, and, especially, an ambitious privatization effort.
While it also notes some serious challenges facing Ethiopia, it concludes that opening the economy can help make everything else easier for a country that has failed to live up to its potential for too long.
The International Crisis Group posted on 19 March 2026 a 36-minute podcast titled "What Is Really Going on in the Horn?" with Alan Boswell and Moses Chrispus Okello, Institute of Security Studies.
The drivers of conflict and instability in the Horn of Africa are no longer confined to the Horn, which is being absorbed into the geopolitical arena of the Red Sea and Gulf States. External actors are contributing to fragmentation in the Horn that is rooted in domestic politics.
Landlocked Ethiopia is key to stability in the region because it borders all other countries in the Horn, is the most populous, and is now trying to obtain access to the Red Sea.
African Arguments posted on 4 March 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Smaller Wars: Destitution, Conflict Escalation, and Military Abuses in Lower Omo" by Lucie Buffavand.
Me'en and Mun people (also known as Bodi and Mursi) are agro-pastoralists who live in the lower Omo Valley in southern Ethiopia. These two small ethnic groups have been engaged in conflict since 2023. Cattle rustling and competition for food is behind much of the conflict.
Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.
Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas. Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.
Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.
The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.
A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online. Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world. Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in 2025 a study titled "From Risk to Response: Addressing the Climate-Conflict-Displacement Nexus."
Somalia consistently ranks among the world's most climate-vulnerable countries. Climate change is the primary driver of internally displaced people (IDPs) in the country. One in every 25 displaced individuals globally resides in Somalia. Climate-vulnerable states are also more likely to experience civil unrest and political instability.
World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.
The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.
The Associated Press published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's National Carrier Cancels Flights to Tigray Region as Fears Grow of Renewed Fighting" by Samuel Getachew.
Beginning on 29 January, Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights to and from Tigray region as fears increased of renewed fighting between federal government and regional Tigray forces, possibly supported by neighboring Eritrea.
CBS News posted on 5 November 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration Ending Protected Status for South Sudanese Nationals" by Nicole Sganga.
The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that the protected status of some 5,000 South Sudanese nationals living in the United States lapsed on 3 November, triggering a 60-day grace period to depart the United States or face deportation. DHS is urging them to depart voluntarily in spite of difficult conditions in South Sudan. This marks a significant shift in U.S. policy towards South Sudan.
The East African published on 31 October 2025 an article titled "Fluid Relations as Addis Seeks Sea Route Via Eritrea" by Aggrey Mutambo.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said he may turn to international mediation as Addis Abba seeks access to the Red Sea through Eritrea. Ethiopian military leaders pursued a more strident position. An Eritrean spokesperson dismissed the idea.
The New York Times published on 27 October 2025 an article titled "Diphtheria, a Once Vanquished Killer of Children, Is Resurgent" by Stephanie Nolen.
Diphtheria returned to Somalia in 2023 and subsequently more than 2,000 cases have been reported. Outbreaks have also occurred in Nigeria, Sudan, and Chad as countries in conflict experience low levels of vaccination.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 October 2025 an entry titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Hannah Ochs.
Amhara Fano militias carried out more attacks in Amhara Region from August to September than during any previous two-month period since the beginning of the Fano insurgency. The recent attacks have been concentrated in North and South Wollo zones of eastern Amhara Region. Fano continues, however, to be constrained by internal disagreements.
