The Role of Masculinity and the Al-Shabaab Challenge

 The Royal United Services Institute published on 18 June 2026 a study titled "Masculinities and Violence in the Horn of Africa Borderlands" by Christopher Hockey and Claudia Wallner.

This paper reveals how masculinity norms fuel conflict, violent extremism, and gender-based violence in the Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia borderlands, shaping al-Shabaab's recruitment and deepening insecurity.  It is based on interviews with experts and community members in two communities: one at the tripoint where Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia meet and the other at the Kenya-Somalia border on the Indian Ocean coastline.

It offers actionable recommendations for defense and security practitioners to address these interconnected challenges.  

Fighting Erupts in Somalia's Capital

 The New York Times published on 4 June 2026 an article titled "What to Know About the Fighting in Somalia's Capital, Mogadishu" by Hussein Mohamed and Matthew Mpoke Bigg.

On 4 June, government forces began fighting militia groups loyal to two of the president's rivals in Mogadishu, resulting in the worst violence there in years.  The clashes stemmed from Parliament's contentious decision to extend President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term of office for another year beyond its expiration date.

Podcast on Situation in Somalia and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 30 April 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Election Standoff and New Inflection Point" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.  

Issues discussed include Somalia's latest electoral crisis, tensions with federal member states, the future of the African Union mission in Somalia, the fight against al-Shabaab, and the growing role of external powers, especially Türkiye in Somali politics, and Israel in Somaliland.  

Omar Mahmood offers an especially clear explanation of the current electoral situation in Somalia.  Technically, 15 May is the end of the current government's term, but the situation is actually more complicated.  The current government argues it has one more year in power; the opposition says it ends on 15 May.  In any event, there will not be elections on 15 May.  

Somaliland Just Became More Complicated

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 January 2026 an analysis titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.   

The federal government of Somalia in Mogadishu inaugurated North East state as a federal member state amid political disputes with Somaliland, which has claimed the territory since it declared independence from Somalia in 1991, and the autonomous neighboring state of Puntland, which has claims on parts of North East state.  North East state, which is home to a different clan than the rest of Somaliland, has been a location of periodic conflict for many years.  This situation significantly complicates the situation in Somalia, Somaliland, and Puntland.

Somalia: The Formation of Hirshabelle State

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a study titled "The Formation of Hirshabelle State: Challenges and Opportunities."  

Established in 2016 as the fifth federal member of Somalia, Hirshabelle State represented a pivotal yet contentious milestone in the country's governance process, which was widely criticized for its rushed and exclusionary decision-making.  The process exacerbated unresolved grievances among key stakeholders.  

Avoiding Turmoil in Somalia's Electoral Reform Process

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 24 September 2025 an analysis titled "Electoral Showdown in Somalia: Avoiding Another Round of Turmoil."

Somalia's political opposition sees the government's electoral reform package as an effort to tilt the scales in the incumbent president's favor.  The ICG calls on the government and its opponents to accept a compromise.  

Ethiopia's Gedo Region Is New Flashpoint

 Ethiopia Insight published on 19 August 2025 a commentary titled "The Gedo Stratagem: Ethiopia's High-Stakes Proxy Politics" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.

Straddling the tri-border area of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, the Gedo region has become the epicenter of proxy wars, clan rivalries, and al-Shabaab resurgence, threatening to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. 

Somalia's Forum on Political Reconciliation

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 August 2025 an article titled "The National Consultative Forum and the Future of Somalia's Political Landscape."

In mid-June, the Somali government hosted the National Consultative Forum in an effort to build national consensus and resolve the current political stalemate.  The Forum failed to receive the level of regional or international endorsement the Somali government had anticipated.  Puntland and Jubaland states boycotted the Forum. 

Somalia Loses Ground to Al-Shabaab

 South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 28 July 2025 an article titled "Fragmented Governance in Somalia a Breeding Ground for Al-Shabaab's Growing Influence and Power" by Selam Tadesse Demissie.

Rivalries among the federal government, states, and political opposition are undermining the country's earlier counterterrorism successes.  Al-Shabaab is regaining areas in central Somalia and threatens the capital as the government struggles to implement its counterterrorism strategy.  

Peaceful Somaliland Elections but Serious Neighborhood Strains

 The International Crisis Group published on 11 December 2024 an analysis titled "Somaliland's Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains" by Omar Mahmood.  

Somaliland held presidential elections in mid-November, ending in victory for the opposition and a swift concession by the incumbent.  While the peaceful transfer of power marked a welcome outcome, the run-up to the vote was far from smooth.  Serious issues also remain involving neighboring Somalia, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.  

Climate Change and Conflict in South-central Somalia

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in May 2024 a report titled "Burning Ground: Tackling Climate Change and Conflict in South-central Somalia" by Kheira Tarif.  

The report explains how climate action can be used as a platform for reducing violent conflict over natural resources, fostering cross-clan collaboration on climate-smart infrastructure and nature-based solutions; and forging or strengthening relationships between formal authorities and rural communities.

The Somali National Security Architecture

 The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2024 a paper titled "The Shaping of the Somali National Security Architecture."

This policy paper assesses the revised National Security Architecture in Somalia, pinpointing critical deficiencies and offering policy recommendations to strengthen the national security framework.  

State Building in a Somali Region: Galmudug

 The Heritage Institute published in March 2024 a study titled "Galmudug: Governance, State Formation, Conflict Dynamics, and Reconciliation" by Yusuf Sheikh Omar and Ahmed Barre.

The study investigates factors shaping the processes of state formation in Galmudug such as clan politics, economic considerations, conflict dynamics, governance, elections, the condition of internally displaced persons, peace, and reconciliation processes.  

Somalia's Stalled Offensive Against Al-Shabaab

 CTC Sentinel published in February 2024 an article titled "Somalia's Stalled Offensive Against al-Shabaab: Taking Stock of Obstacles" by Daisy Muibu, Africa Center for Strategic Studies.  

The Somali government launched an offensive against al-Shabaab almost a year and a half ago.  It had some early success but has now stalled out.  The goal was to defeat al-Shabaab by the end of 2024 when the African Union forces are scheduled to leave Somalia.  The author identified obstacles to success as overly ambitious timelines, donor fatigue, lukewarm regional support, strategic mistakes, clan divisions, and the ability of al-Shabaab to regroup quickly after military setbacks.  

The Way Forward in Somalia

 The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune published in February 2024 a commentary titled "Making Somalia Safe Again" by Staffan Tillander, former Swedish ambassador to Somalia.  

The defeat of al-Shabaab alone will not end Somalia's problems.  Strong leadership must also reconcile and resolve conflicts through dialogue in an effort to find a common way forward.  

Somalia to Wage New Offensive Against Al-Shabaab

 Critical Threats published on 1 February 2024 an analysis titled "Somalia Aims to Expand Stop-Start Offensive Against Al-Shabaab" by Liam Karr.  

The Somali government says it is preparing to begin an all-out offensive against al-Shabaab in southern Somalia.  The goal is to eliminate al-Shabaab by the time the African Union peacekeeping force completes its scheduled withdrawal at the end of 2024.  The Somali government's inability to consolidate its control over central Somalia could undermine its efforts to take control of al-Shabaab-held areas in the south.

Impact on Somalia and Somaliland of Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 War on the Rocks published on 24 January 2024 an analysis titled "A Port Deal Puts the Horn of Africa on the Brink" by Caleb Weiss, Bridgeway Foundation, and James Barnett, Hudson Institute.

This analysis focuses on the implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the internal situation in Somalia and Somaliland.  It acknowledges that neither Somalia nor Somaliland has the ability to wage a conventional war against any potential opponent.  The al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab terrorist movement in Somalia and the Somali government oppose the MOU.  Al-Shabaab sees the MOU as a way to mobilize additional support for its goals from the wider Somali population.  The MOU has also upended politics in Somaliland.  

Transitional Justice in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in January 2024 a study titled "Transitional Justice in Clan-based Societies: Case Study Somalia" by Yusuf Hassan.

After decades of civil war, Somalia stands on the precipice of recovery.  Yet, Somalia's path to recovery remains precariously balanced.  Tribal violence and extremist ideologies continue to ripple through the country, and political factions, intractably entangled in ceaseless power struggles threaten the fragile momentum.  A fundamental shift in approach is needed to solidify Somalia's path towards recovery and stability.  

Land At the Center of Somali Conflict

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2023 a report titled "Somalia: Land Governance Review" by Surer Qassim Mohamed, Cambridge University.  

Land is a central point of contention in Somalia's fragmented political landscape and remains a significant driver of contemporary conflict.  Somalia's land governance architecture is a patchwork of unclear and overlapping authorities, overlapping claims to land use, large-scale land grabbing, and unclear land tenure.

This report aims to provide an overview of the current state of land governance in Somalia, examining the historical context, hybrid legal framework, and current practices around land ownership, access, and control.  

Combatting Terrorism in Somalia

 The Wall Street Journal published on 27 September 2023 an article titled "A Rare Success Emerges in the War on Terror" by Michael M. Phillips.

Somalia has become a surprising bright spot in the battle against terrorism.  The American-trained 2,000 member Somali special forces brigade known as Danab and clan militias are on the offensive against terrorism in the country.