Misfired Turkish Drones Take Civilian Toll in Ethiopia and Sahel

 HumAngle, an African media platform with funding from the MacArthur Foundation and committed to identifying security and humanitarian crises in Africa, published on 21 August 2026 an article titled "The Human Price of Turkish AI-Powered Drone Rush Across Africa" by Ibrahim Adeyemi.  

Ethiopia was one of the first countries in Africa to deploy Turkey's Baykar manufactured TB2 drones in combat.  Military misfires of the drones in Amhara Region of Ethiopia and in the Sahel region of Africa have taken a toll on the civilian population.  Inadequate training in use of the drones probably accounts for most of the mistakes.  

Five Imprisoned Ethiopian Journalists Refuse to Apologize

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 13 August 2026 a press release titled "In Ethiopia, 5 Journalists Pressured to Apologize for Terrorism to Win Release."

Five Ethiopian journalists have been detained on terrorism charges for three years awaiting trial.  They have refused to write letters of apology and admit guilt in exchange for their freedom.  

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Parliamentary Elections

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."

The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.

Ethiopian Politics after the 2026 National Elections

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans in the Washington area, posted on 18 June 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Road Ahead: Politics After the 2026 Election."

This commentary provides an overview of the national elections that took place in Ethiopia earlier this month.  It assumes a landslide victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party but highlights several problems that occurred during the elections.  Abren predicts the acceleration of market liberalization and a continuing effort by the government to obtain access to the sea.  

Censorship in Runup to Ethiopia's Elections

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 29 May 2026 an article titled "'Under the Shadow of Fear': Censorship Is Ethiopia's Real Election Story, Journalists Say."

Intimidation of the press is becoming the norm in the runup to Ethiopia's national elections.  Numerous reporters have experienced a variety of challenges as they attempt to cover the elections. 

Local Militia in Amhara Region Disrupts Ethiopian Elections

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 28 May 2026 an article titled "Fano Disrupts Ethiopian Elections" by Michael DeAngelo.

Fano militia has stepped up its attacks in Amhara Region as Ethiopia approaches national elections on June 1.  The federal government announced it will not hold elections in at least 8 of Amhara's 138 constituencies due to insecurity.

Are June Elections Viable in Ethiopia?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 28 March 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Heads to Elections Amid War and Instability" by Eyob Tilahun Abera, Mekelle University.

Ethiopia is scheduled to have national elections in June.  Scattered conflict in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions poses serious challenges to organizing and campaigning.  The author argues that elections held under such conditions could deepen divisions within the country.

Interview with Tigray Press: Part 2

 This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.  

This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.   

A Different Point of View on Ethiopia's Welkait Region

 The Habesha published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "Legitimacy and the Limits of Political Experimentation in Welkait" by Sisay Mulu.  

The author disagrees at both the analytical and policy level with the conclusions of Zola Moges's "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Ballots nor Bullets Can Resolve" reposted below on 2 March.  

Sisay Mulu argues that Zola Moges downplayed the importance of historical administrative continuity, discussed legal and constitutional issues in abstract terms, and failed to fairly consider the practical challenges of governing a contested post-conflict area.  

Ethiopia's Welkait: Amharan, Tigrayan, or Something Else?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 March 2026 a commentary titled "The Welkait Quagmire Neither Bullets nor Ballets Can Resolve" by Zola Moges, PhD in international law.

Welkait is a district that has been part of Western Tigray since the Tigray People's Liberation Front annexed it following the demise in 1991 of the Derg regime.  Prior to that, Welkait was part of Amhara Region.  

Welkait's strategic location at the intersection of Ethiopia's borders with Sudan and Eritrea complicates the ability to find a solution that manages to overcome long-standing ethnic, language, and cultural differences.  

The author suggests as a solution creation of a self-administered territory that might take the form of a special autonomous zone or even an additional regional state with bilingual Amharic and Tigrinya administration.  

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray Poised to Fight

 The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."

A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable.  It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other.  Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.  

Ethiopia's Conflict in Amhara Region

 World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.

The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.

Conflict in Ethiopia

The International Crisis Group posted on 3 February 2026 a commentary titled "Flare-up in Tigray Highlights Risk of More War in Northern Ethiopia" by Magnus Taylor. 

A new outbreak of conflict between Tigray Defense Forces, on one side, and Amhara militias and federal troops, on the other, underscores an escalating standoff between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).  The federal government accuses the TPLF of forming a secret pact with Eritrea amid growing tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara.    

Growing Tension in Ethiopia-Eritrea Relationship

 Agence France Presse published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea of 'Actively' Preparing for War."  

Ethiopia's foreign minister sent a letter last week to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stating that the hardliner faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front "and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia."

The Reporter published on 11 October 2025 a commentary titled "Defusing the Mounting Ethio-Eritrea Tensions."

It suggests there is still a narrow window for preventive action and calls for the reopening of diplomatic channels between Ethiopia and Eritrea and a mediated dialogue by a neutral third party such as the Africa Union or the United Nations.  

Ethiopia's Fano Militias Step Up Attacks

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 October 2025 an entry titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Hannah Ochs.

Amhara Fano militias carried out more attacks in Amhara Region from August to September than during any previous two-month period since the beginning of the Fano insurgency.  The recent attacks have been concentrated in North and South Wollo zones of eastern Amhara Region.  Fano continues, however, to be constrained by internal disagreements.  

Challenges to Higher Education in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 30 August 2025 a commentary titled "Education Under Siege in Ethiopia" by Aemro Worku, former lecturer at Injibara University.

COVID-19, periodic conflict and insecurity, and regional educational differences have done serious damage to higher education in Ethiopia.  

Ethiopia's National Dialogue Commission

 Ethiopia Insight published on 28 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's National Dialogue Seeks to Smooth the Path to Constitutional Reform" by Leul Estifanos.

The commentary discusses the status of Ethiopia's three-year-old National Dialogue Commission with a focus on the prospects for amending the constitution.  

Is War Returning to Ethiopia's Tigray Region?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 July 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy's War Script: Deja Vu for Tigray, Ominous for Ethiopia" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.

The author fears that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is laying the ground for renewed conflict in Tigray Region.  He calls for the restoration of the Tigray People's Liberation Movement's legal status as a political party and the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement to avoid new conflict.

Ethiopia: Unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 July 2025 a commentary titled "Red Sea Reckonings: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Unraveling of Pretoria" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.

The Pretoria Agreement, signed in 2022, has not resulted in stability in Ethiopia.  Instead, alliances are fraying, old rivalries are reigniting, and fragile new fault lines are emerging.  A deterioration in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea follows an effort by Addis Ababa to develop an outlet to the Red Sea.

Conflict between Ethiopian Nationalism and Regionalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 25 June 2025 a commentary titled "Othering in Disguise: Nationalism, Regionalism, and the Search for Civic Belonging in Ethiopia" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's political landscape is shaped by two powerful, often contradictory forces: nationalism, which unites people under a shared identity, and regionalism or federalism, which seeks to empower marginalized groups through autonomy.  But within both "isms" is a tendency to define oneself by negating the other.  To build enduring unity, Ethiopia must cultivate a culture where identity is not weaponized.