AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 27 August 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.
The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has conducted numerous drone strikes targeting Mekele, the capital, and other parts of Tigray Region. There was large-scale fighting in Western Tigray on 1 August between the ENDF and the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
Ethiopia Insight published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Eritrea Script Exposes Ethiopia's Unity Farce" by Asfaw Gedamu, independent writer.
This is a critique of the National Dialogue process now underway in Ethiopia, and especially the absence of Tigray from the Dialogue. The author discusses the increasing distance between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia and draws parallels with Eritrean independence. He concludes that the argument for Tigray remaining within the federation is becoming harder to sustain.
Ethiopia Insight published on 27 July 2026 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalism Faces Historic Choice in National Dialogue" by Henok Ambachew, a pseudonym for a former lecturer at Bahir Dar University.
Ethiopia's ruling Prosperity Party has replaced the EPRDF coalition model with a single national party, which the author says is based on a different organizing principle called "demographic majoritarianism."
The Prosperity Party increasingly reflects the numerical weight of Ethiopia's population. The 45-member executive committee consists of 10 Oromo members, 8 Amharas, 4 Somalis with the remaining distributed among other regional constituencies. This was not the outcome desired by many Amhara elites.
Ethiopia Insight published on 14 January 2026 a commentary titled "Getachew Blurs Blame for Tigray War to Excuse the Ethiopian State" by Mesfin Ayenew, a political analyst.
The author takes issue with the efforts of Getachew Reda, former interim president of Tigray Region, to explain the Tigray war in a way that selectively absolves Ethiopia's federal government. Getachew claims the war resulted primarily from the belligerence and rhetorical excess of Tigray's leadership. The author disagrees.
Ethiopia Insight published on 28 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's National Dialogue Seeks to Smooth the Path to Constitutional Reform" by Leul Estifanos.
The commentary discusses the status of Ethiopia's three-year-old National Dialogue Commission with a focus on the prospects for amending the constitution.
Ethiopia Insight published on 3 March 2025 a commentary titled "Breaking Ethiopia's Vicious Cycle" by Nagessa Dube, a lawyer in Seattle, Washington, and advocate for Oromo people's rights.
The author concluded that "Ethiopia's path to peace and stability lies in embracing dialogue, compromise, and institutional resilience. The cycle of conflict and power struggles must end, replaced by a political culture rooted in unity, democracy, and reconciliation."
The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Africa File published on 23 September 2024 an analysis titled "External Meddling for the Red Sea Exacerbates Conflicts in the Horn of Africa" by Liam Karr.
Russia, Iran, UAE, Turkey, and Egypt are taking advantage of conflicts in the Horn of Africa to advance their economic, military, and political objectives in the greater Red Sea area at the expense of the interests of the local populations and the United States.
The International Crisis Group posted on 25 January 2024 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia's Push for Sea Access" with Christopher Clapham, University of Cambridge, and Alan Boswell.
Clapham discusses the history of Ethiopia's effort to obtain an outlet to the Red Sea and the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland. Current conflict over access to the Red Sea could extend throughout the Horn of Africa, which is a region always subject to a catastrophic war. The situation in Ethiopia is very worrying.
Addis Ababa today looks like a relatively stable bubble surrounded by instability in the regions. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is not immediately threatened but is running an idiosyncratic administration with no obvious basis of support. He is making a series of tactical alliances but losing trust in the process. The concept of manifest destiny runs strong in both Ethiopia and Somalia. Clapton concluded that the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal will eventually fall apart.
Brookings published on 16 January 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's New Year's Ledger: A Controversial New Port and Domestic Challenges" by Jeffrey Feltman, Brookings and former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa.
The author assesses the plusses and minuses in Ethiopia as the new year begins. He concludes that the immediate risk to Ethiopia's stability is the bewildering array of nonstate armed actors.
Ethiopia Insight published on 8 January 2024 a commentary titled "Peace in Ethiopia's Oromia Will Only Come Through Genuine Self-rule" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter living in Burayu, Oromia.
This is a detailed, if complex, discussion of the politics of Oromia that offers suggestions for dealing with the current conflicts, which seem to be dominated by extreme ethnic nationalism among Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.
Joseph Pisenti, an American YouTuber in Dallas, Texas, who uses the name RealLifeLore recently posted a 50-minute video titled "Why Ethiopia Is Preparing to Invade Eritrea Next."
This is a summary of Ethiopian history, demography, religion, and ethnicity leading up to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's expression of the need for landlocked Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea.
The International Crisis Group posted on 16 November 2023 a 38 minute podcast titled "End of One War, Start of Another in Ethiopia" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.
Conflict has ended in Tigray Region but many Tigrayans remain under arms, borders among ethnic groups are not defined, some Eritrean forces remain in Tigray, and many humanitarian problems continue to fester. Subsequent rebellions in Amhara Region and Oromia threaten peace again in Ethiopia. Eritrea remains concerned about the continuing presence of the TPLF and slow pace of demobilization in Tigray. There has been a widening gap between Asmara and Addis Ababa, exacerbated by Abiy Ahmed's desire for access to the Red Sea.
The International Crisis Group published on 16 November 2023 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Ominous New War in Amhara."
Ethiopia is sliding into another conflict as many of Prime Minister Abiy's key Amhara allies during the war with Tigray region revolt against his rule. Tensions between Amhara and factions in neighboring Oromia, which faces its own rebellion, add to the challenge.
The Conversation published on 13 November 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Abiy Takes a Page from Russia, China in Asserting Right to Restore Historical Claim to Strategic Waters" by Mahad Darar, Colorado State University.
The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's posturing on landlocked Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea echos Russia's invasion of Crimea and China's military moves in the South China Sea.
The Associated Press published on 6 November 2023 an article titled "Ethiopia Says Disputed Western Tigray Will Be Settled in a Referendum and Displaced People Returned."
The Ethiopian federal government announced that persons displaced from Western Tigray during the war will be returned and then a referendum will be held to reach "a final determination on the fate of these areas." There was no date announced for the referendum.
African Arguments published on 31 October 2023 a commentary titled "Will the Rebellion in Amhara Unravel the Ethiopian State?" by Mohamed Kheir Omer, African-Norwegian researcher and former member of the Eritrea Liberation Front.
The author argues that the conflict in Amhara Region could have devastating consequences in unraveling the country. Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki allegedly backs the Amhara with training and arms.
The Financial Times published on 4 October 2023 a comprehensive article from Mekelle titled "Ethiopia's Plan to Rebuild in the Wake of a 'Brutal' War" by Andres Schipani.
The article notes that slowly Ethiopia is coming back from the cold, although peace is tenuous. Continuing violence in Amhara Region and the presence of Eritrean Defense Forces in parts of Tigray Region have resulted in 200,000 battle-hardened Tigrayan Defense Forces keeping their small arms.
World Politics Review published on 12 June 2023 a commentary titled "The Tigray War Is Over. Ethiopia's Conflict in Oromia Is Raging On" by Bereket Diriba, researcher in peace building.
Since the formal end of the war in Tigray Region in November 2022, Addis Ababa has determined to resolve the conflict in Oromia with military force. The conflict between the Oromo Liberation Army and the Ethiopian government is a dispute over power and both sides' competing claims of legitimacy to represent the Oromo people. Peace talks on Zanzibar failed to reach an understanding on key political matters, although they are expected to resume.
Ethiopia Insight published on 7 June 2023 a commentary titled "Amharas Turning on Abiy Are Short of Ethiopian Allies" by Abel Tesfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.
The author argues that Amhara factionalism and friction with fellow government opponents elsewhere in Ethiopia are likely to constrain opposition to the Abiy government.
Human Rights Watch published on 1 June 2023 a report titled "Ethiopia: Ethnic Cleansing Persists under Tigray Truce."
Human Rights Watch alleges that an ethnic cleansing campaign is continuing in Western Tigray Zone even after signature of the 2 November 2022 truce agreement.
