Can Ethiopia Use BRICS to Advance Its Maritime Access Goal?

 Firstpost posted on 10 September 2026 a 15-minute podcast titled "'Abiy Ahmed Unlocks the Sea': How BRICS Is Ending Ethiopia's Landlocked Curse" with Alyson Le Grange.

A BRICS' summit will take place in New Delhi 12-13 September.  As a recent member, Ethiopia hopes to use the occasion to advance its arguments for obtaining access to the Red Sea.  This may not, however, be an ideal time or place to move this goal forward.  Most BRICS' members will be reluctant to get in the middle of this controversial issue and Egypt, a member of BRICS, will oppose it.   

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

Ethiopia Moves Troops Closer to Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign.  Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region.  In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces, 

Ethiopia-Eritrea and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 January 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Alan Boswell.  

Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to grow.  Both countries are increasing their purchase of weapons and extending their competition into the conflict in Sudan.  International pressure may be restraining direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The political space in Tigray Region continues to fragment, although the faction aligned with Eritrea now has the upper hand.

Landlocked Ethiopia is pressing its effort to gain access to the Red Sea, now focusing on Eritrea's port of Assab, which is driving the tension with Asmara.  Eritrea takes the position that it cannot negotiate its sovereign territory.  Both countries also compete to be seen as leaders in the region.  

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging in open conflict in Yemen and in the Horn of Africa.  Eritrea wants Saudi Arabia to counter UAE influence in the region.  Addis Ababa probably viewed Israel's recognition of Somaliland favorably while Asmara opposed it.  

One development that would improve relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is an end to the conflict in Sudan.  This would remove a point of contention and open the door to a rapprochement.  

Egypt Strengthens Ties with Djibouti and Eritrea to Gain Leverage on Nile Water Issues with Ethiopia

The National published on 30 December 2025 an article titled "Egypt Finalises Deal to Develop Djibouti's Port in Bid to Pressure Ethiopia over Nile Dam" by Hamza Hendawi. 

Egypt will upgrade Djibouti's Doraleh port and Eritrea's strategic Red Sea port of Assab to increase their capacity and create berths for warships and small military contingents.  This is part of Egypt's strategy to build alliances with Ethiopia's neighbors and develop support for its position on Nile water disagreements.

Ethiopia Edges Towards Another War

 The Economist posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Is Perilously Close to Another War."

Political divisions within Tigray Region and worsening relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Ethiopia's goal of achieving access to the sea are raising the prospect of yet another war in the region.  

Ethiopia: Playing with Numbers to Support Red Sea Access

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 November 2025 a commentary titled "From Tigray's Cleansing to the Red Sea: The Tyranny of False Numbers" by an anonymous author.

Ethiopia's military chief recently said that the "fate of 200 million" Ethiopians cannot be decided by "2 million" Eritreans over Red Sea access.  The numbers used by the general significantly increase Ethiopia's population and reduce by half Eritrea's.  The author suggests this is a demographic narrative intended to help justify taking Eritrea's port of Assab by force in order to gain access to the Red Sea. 

Former Tigrayan Insider Predicts Ethiopia-Eritrea War

 Ethiopia Insight published on 19 September 2025 a commentary titled "New Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict Is 'Inevitable'" by an anonymous author.

A former senior Tigray People's Liberation Front official says another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea "appears inevitable."  Ethiopian access to the Eritrean port of Assab on the Red Sea is the reason for the presumed upcoming conflict. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed envisages an Ethiopian port on the Red Sea as his signature achievement.  

Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Toward War?

 The International Crisis Group published on 27 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Closer to War amid Tigray Upheaval."

Political turmoil in Tigray Region and growing tension between Addis Ababa and Asmara over landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the Red Sea are driving the current crisis in the Horn of Africa. 

Edging Towards Another Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict?

 World Politics Review published on 27 March 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Are Back on a War Footing" by Fred Harter, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

A power struggle in Tigray Region between Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda is the proximate cause of the current crisis in Ethiopia, but a more explosive dynamic is the escalating rivalry between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara.  In February, Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization, and Ethiopia has been moving military equipment and troops to its border with Eritrea.

Ethiopia: The Plot Thickens in Tigray Region

 The Economist published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "A Coup Attempt in Tigray Raises Tensions in the Horn."

A coup attempt by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Tigray Defense Forces in early March triggered a political crisis in Tigray Region.  Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki is reportedly arming the Ethiopian opposition and aligning with the Tigray coup plotters.  

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray in the Middle

 Ethiopia Insight published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy and Isaias Fight over Tigray" by Ermias Gebregziabher, who now resides in the United States.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hoped the war in Tigray would weaken the Tigray People's Liberation Front and neutralize the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.  The end of the conflict in Tigray has divided the previous unity of Tigrayans and reportedly resulted in both Eritrea and the government in Addis Ababa aligning with one of the Tigrayan factions.  It also raises the possibility of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

Podcast on Rising Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 14 March 2025 a 37-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On a Collision Course" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.

They discuss the rising tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the political crisis in Tigray Region, and whether another war can be averted.  A split in the once united Tigray People's Liberation Front with one faction potentially willing to side with Eritrea and the other with Abiy Ahmed's central government is the proximate cause of the current crisis.

What happens in Tigray Region, which has a long border with Eritrea, will likely determine whether conflict breaks out between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The best way to deescalate the crisis is to encourage Tigrayan reconciliation.  

Ethiopia: Podcast with Christopher Clapham

 The International Crisis Group posted on 25 January 2024 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia's Push for Sea Access" with Christopher Clapham, University of Cambridge, and Alan Boswell.  

Clapham discusses the history of Ethiopia's effort to obtain an outlet to the Red Sea and the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.  Current conflict over access to the Red Sea could extend throughout the Horn of Africa, which is a region always subject to a catastrophic war.  The situation in Ethiopia is very worrying.  

Addis Ababa today looks like a relatively stable bubble surrounded by instability in the regions.  Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is not immediately threatened but is running an idiosyncratic administration with no obvious basis of support.  He is making a series of tactical alliances but losing trust in the process.  The concept of manifest destiny runs strong in both Ethiopia and Somalia.  Clapton concluded that the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal will eventually fall apart.  

Video on Ethiopia's Goal to Access the Sea

 Joseph Pisenti, an American YouTuber in Dallas, Texas, who uses the name RealLifeLore recently posted a 50-minute video titled "Why Ethiopia Is Preparing to Invade Eritrea Next."  

This is a summary of Ethiopian history, demography, religion, and ethnicity leading up to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's expression of the need for landlocked Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea.  

Are Ethiopia and Eritrea Edging Toward War?

 Foreign Policy posted on 7 November 2023 a commentary titled "Are Ethiopia and Eritrea on the Path to War?" by Mohamed Kheir Omer, former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front.  

The author says Eritrean military sources suggest the country is now bracing for a potential war as Ethiopia amasses troops near the Eritrean border in Zalembessa, which is 45 miles from the Eritrean port of Assab.  Eritrea has reportedly located 40,000 troops along the Tigray-Eritrea border.  The author concludes that "the current trajectory suggests a probable collision course that could have devastating regional implications."

Resolving the Ethiopia-Eritrea Dispute

African Arguments posted on 13 June 2018 a commentary titled "How Ethiopia and Eritrea Can Forge a New Relationship" by Herman J. Cohen, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.

Cohen suggests the following four point plan:

--A mutual security guarantee,
--Re-open the border for trade,
--Restore access to Eritrean ports, and
--Remove sanctions against Eritrea.

Eritrea and Ethiopia: Beyond the Impasse

London's Chatham House published in April 2014 an analysis titled "Eritrea and Ethiopia: Beyond the Impasse" by Jason Mosley.  The analysis argues that opportunities exist for external efforts to foster improved relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.  A fresh approach should involve engagement with each country individually, rather than immediate attempts to promote dialogue between them.

While any movement that helps normalize relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea would be a positive development, my own reading is that neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea is interested in taking those steps which might result in improved relations.