AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The article describes Tigray Defense Force efforts to take territory held by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Amhara militias. The heightened tensions could spark a broader conflict with Eritrea. Should war break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Egypt and the UAE would likely get pulled into it.
The International Crisis Group posted on 15 January 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Alan Boswell.
Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to grow. Both countries are increasing their purchase of weapons and extending their competition into the conflict in Sudan. International pressure may be restraining direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The political space in Tigray Region continues to fragment, although the faction aligned with Eritrea now has the upper hand.
Landlocked Ethiopia is pressing its effort to gain access to the Red Sea, now focusing on Eritrea's port of Assab, which is driving the tension with Asmara. Eritrea takes the position that it cannot negotiate its sovereign territory. Both countries also compete to be seen as leaders in the region.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging in open conflict in Yemen and in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea wants Saudi Arabia to counter UAE influence in the region. Addis Ababa probably viewed Israel's recognition of Somaliland favorably while Asmara opposed it.
One development that would improve relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is an end to the conflict in Sudan. This would remove a point of contention and open the door to a rapprochement.
The Economist posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Is Perilously Close to Another War."
Political divisions within Tigray Region and worsening relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Ethiopia's goal of achieving access to the sea are raising the prospect of yet another war in the region.
Tigrai Press aired a 40-minute video interview with me on 19 November 2025. Bisrat Bahta asked the questions, all of which dealt with current issues in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia Insight published on 19 November 2025 a commentary titled "Waging Peace in Tigray, a Land Haunted by War" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.
As the Pretoria Agreement unravels, the path forward in Tigray Region is threatened not just by the tension but by a political culture still in the grip of a stifling party-state and collective trauma. The author calls for internal Tigrayan reconciliation as the only route to a peaceful future.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.
Growing political tension in Tigray Region is expanding into neighboring Afar Region. Tigray Defense Forces linked to the Tigray People's Liberation Front are trying to degrade the opposition Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), based in Afar Region near the border with Tigray.
Ethiopia Insight published on 29 July 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy's War Script: Deja Vu for Tigray, Ominous for Ethiopia" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.
The author fears that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is laying the ground for renewed conflict in Tigray Region. He calls for the restoration of the Tigray People's Liberation Movement's legal status as a political party and the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement to avoid new conflict.
The Rift Valley Institute published in 2024 a paper titled "Prosperity to the Periphery? The Politics of Resource Extraction in Ethiopia, Post-2018" by Jonah Wedekind.
The Abiy Ahmed government sought to reform the governance of resource extraction and revenue distribution by sharing them more fairly with politically marginalized regions. The author concludes that despite the ruling Prosperity Party's pledge to redress Ethiopia's center-periphery model of politics, the balance of power vis-a-vis peripheral regions and the political center has not shifted fundamentally.
Ethiopia Insight published on 25 January 2024 a commentary titled "Global Action Is Needed to Stop the Unfolding Famine in Tigray" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina, Patrick Wight, Ethiopia Insight, and Lyla Mehta, Norwegian University of Life Sciences.
A combination of conflict and crop failure due to drought, locusts, and unseasonal rain is causing famine in Tigray Region and parts of Afar and Amhara regions. The authors, quoting local officials, say the situation is reminiscent of the 1984 Ethiopian famine.
The South China Morning Post published on 17 December 2023 an article titled "China Tests Diplomatic Prowess in Ethiopia as It Rebuilds after Tigray War" by Jevans Nyabiage.
The war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region, where Chinese companies were involved in several large construction and manufacturing projects, was a setback for Chinese engagement in the country. Now that the war is over, China hopes to resume its projects in Tigray and expand its influence throughout the country.
The APO Group, a Pan-African press release distribution service, posted on behalf of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 15 December 2023 an article titled "Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Affairs of the Foreign Ministry Xue Bing Visits Tigray Region of Ethiopia."
While visiting Tigray Region, Xue Bing said China is willing to actively participate in the post-conflict reconstruction of the region and expects Chinese companies to restart projects in the region interrupted by the outbreak of conflict.
The APO Group also distributed on 15 December 2023 on behalf of China's Foreign Ministry a press release titled "Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Affairs of the Foreign Ministry Xue Bing Visits Afar Region of Ethiopia."
During this part of the visit, Xue Bing said China is prepared to engage in post-conflict reconstruction but provided no specifics.
Comment: Chinese companies were engaged in several large construction and manufacturing projects in Tigray Region before the outbreak of conflict in November 2020. Xue Bing's visit signals a willingness to resume those projects in Tigray Region. So far, China has not played a significant role in the peace process and there is no indication it plans to do so as a result of this visit.
Foreign Affairs published on 15 November 2023 an article titled "Can Justice Bring Peace to Ethiopia: How to Heal Divisions After Decades of War" by Patrick Vinck, Tadesse Simie Metekia, Geoff Dancy, Kathryn Sikkink, and Phuong N. Pham.
The authors conducted a nationwide survey of more than 6,600 randomly selected Ethiopian adults in June and July 2023. They found that more than 90 percent of Ethiopians said it would be unacceptable to move forward without truth seeking, trials, or reparations. They differed sharply, however, on what timeframe to focus on and who should lead the effort. There were marked regional differences in Ethiopians' preferences for types of trials.
Reuters published on 26 October 2023 an article titled "Ethiopia PM Abiy Seeks to Quell Neighbors' Concerns over Invasion" by Dawit Endeshaw and Giulia Paravicini.
Earlier this month Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed suggested that his landlocked country might have to use force to secure access to the Red Sea. Today, Abiy stated Ethiopia would not pursue access to the Red Sea "through force."
The United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, warned in a UN press release dated 10 October 2023 of the heightened risk of genocide and related atrocity crimes in Ethiopia, following continued fighting between government troops and local militias in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, and Oromia regions.
The press release noted that violent confrontations are continuing with mounting allegations of atrocities, war crimes, and crimes against humanity taking place in Ethiopia.
The United Nations posted on 21 September 2023 the one hour and 25 minute video account of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia.
The video opens with remarks by the chairman of the international commission, who cites atrocities in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Afar regions. He notes the lack of cooperation by the government of Ethiopia in the investigation. A representative of the government of Ethiopia responds by rejecting the conclusions of the commission.
Brief statements follow by member national representatives and those from non-governmental and human rights organizations. The video concludes with a response by commission representatives to some of the questions raised by previous speakers.
Reliefweb posted on 18 September 2023 the "Report of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia."
The report identifies grave and systematic violations of international law and crimes committed in Tigray, as well as Amhara, Afar, and Oromia. The conflict in Tigray has not ended with Eritrean troops and Amhara militia engaging in violations. The government of Ethiopia has failed to effectively investigate violations.
The Associated Press published on 21 June 2023 an article titled "Once Starved by War Millions of Ethiopians Go Hungary as U.S., U.N. Pause Aid after Massive Theft."
Following the massive diversion of food aid to military units and markets, the US and UN suspended their programs. This may be the largest ever diversion of US food aid. Some of the food was looted by forces from neighboring Eritrea. US and UN officials are trying to limit or end the Ethiopian government's role in the distribution system.
Ethiopia Insight published on 4 April 2023 a commentary titled "Federal Action Needed to End Ethiopia's Somali-Afar Conflict" by Abel Tesfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.
The author calls for Ethiopian federal government mediation to end recurring conflict between Somali Region and Afar Region.
The Voice of America published on 22 March 2023 an article titled "Rights Experts: Violations in Ethiopia Must Be Investigated to Ensure Durable Peace" by Lisa Schlein.
The three-member UN International Committee of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia warned that peace in Tigray Region will not last unless violations committed during the civil war are investigated and perpetrators held to account.
Harper's Magazine published in February 2023 an account titled "Falling Like Leaves: The War in Ethiopia and Its Crimes against Civilians" by Ann Neumann.
The author describes the atrocities by both sides of the Tigray conflict but seen primarily from Amhara Region as she was not able to visit Tigray Region. The lengthy account provides considerable context leading up to the conflict.
