The International Crisis Group posted on 15 January 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Alan Boswell.
Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to grow. Both countries are increasing their purchase of weapons and extending their competition into the conflict in Sudan. International pressure may be restraining direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The political space in Tigray Region continues to fragment, although the faction aligned with Eritrea now has the upper hand.
Landlocked Ethiopia is pressing its effort to gain access to the Red Sea, now focusing on Eritrea's port of Assab, which is driving the tension with Asmara. Eritrea takes the position that it cannot negotiate its sovereign territory. Both countries also compete to be seen as leaders in the region.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging in open conflict in Yemen and in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea wants Saudi Arabia to counter UAE influence in the region. Addis Ababa probably viewed Israel's recognition of Somaliland favorably while Asmara opposed it.
One development that would improve relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is an end to the conflict in Sudan. This would remove a point of contention and open the door to a rapprochement.
