The Conversation published on 16 July 2026 a discussion summary titled "Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease" by Daniel Maxwell, Alex de Waal, Luka Kuol, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Peter Hailey.
The impacts of a strengthening El Nino and effects of the war in Iran combined with existing prolonged crisis and conflict in the Horn of Africa are leading potentially to a major, multicountry polycrisis.
The Hudson Institute published on 4 July 2026 an analysis titled "The Kremlin's Long Game in Africa" by Joshua Meservey.
The analysis concludes that the Kremlin seeks to extract outsized benefits from Africa with the limited means it can deploy. The nature of this engagement will change only when there is meaningful political transformation in Russia.
The International Crisis Group posted on 2 April 2026 a 36-minute podcast titled "How the Iran War Is Reshaping the Region" with Alan Boswell and Hafsa Halawa, independent political analyst.
The war in Iran is already resulting in shortages of fuel, energy, and electricity in the Red Sea region. Over the longer term, it will likely cause higher inflation and food shortages due to diminished access to imported food and fertilizer, 40 percent of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The fertilizer issue is exacerbated because it does not have a long shelf life.
Large diasporas in the Gulf states from countries like Ethiopia may start returning home as jobs shut down. Gulf state investment in the Horn of Africa, which had been growing rapidly, is likely to fall significantly.
The war may force Gulf states to refocus their national security strategies as they assess freedom of navigation and support for factions or governments in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. Saudi support for the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) may decline because of Iran's ties with the SAF. The UAE is likely to continue its support for Ethiopia.
The war is likely to exacerbate existing tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Egypt and Turkey will need to reassess their strategies in the region. The war comes on top of Israel's recognition of Somaliland, which already exacerbated Gulf state security relationships.
Saudi Arabia has shifted oil exports to the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea. If the Houthis decide to attack international shipping in the Red Sea, this could end the shipment of oil to Asia by closing the Bab el-Mandeb choke point. It would still be possible to ship oil from Yanbu north through the Suez Canal to Europe.
The Iran war makes clear that the regional security situation is now completely interconnected.
Nanyang Technological University in Singapore published on 27 January 2025 an article titled "Chinese Mining and Fertilizer Firm to Invest US10bn in Egypt."
Shanghai-based Asia-Potash plans to develop a massive extractive industrial complex in Egypt to mine phosphate and produce fertilizer mostly for export. The first phase of the project involves an investment of $1.6 billion while the total investment is projected to range between $7 billion and $10 billion.
The Council on Foreign Relations published on 19 July 2023 an analysis titled "Russia Killed the Black Sea Grain Deal. These Countries Could Suffer Most" by Kali Robinson.
Ukraine produces about 10 percent of the world's wheat and 15 percent of its corn. Russia's cancellation of the deal to allow Ukraine to export grain from Black Sea ports will negatively impact a number of African countries. The percentage of wheat imported from Ukraine as a share of total wheat imports follows: Libya (49 %), Ethiopia (45 %), Tunisia (31 %), Mauritania (23 %), Madagascar (20 %), Nigeria (18 %), Kenya (14 %), Zambia (13 %), and Uganda (12 %).
The South African Institute of International Affairs published in March 2023 a study titled "Moscow's Continent: The Principles of Russia's Africa Policy Engagement" by Vuk Vuksanovic, Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.
The paper reflects on the increased importance of Africa to Russia's global interests. It explores the critical drivers of Africa's role within Russian foreign policy and argues that Russian policy in Africa revolves around three themes: pursuing alternative economic partnerships, seeking geopolitical leverage, and promoting multipolarity.
The Standard (Kenya) published on 18 November 2022 an article titled "War in Ukraine Has Big Impact on Kenya, Africa" by Protus Onyango.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has driven up prices of energy, fertilizer, and grain and disrupted supply chains across Africa. Kenyans, for example, have shifted to charcoal from the DRC, South Sudan, and Uganda, which threatens the future of the rainforest.
UN News published on 24 August 2022 a press release titled "Drought, Hunger and Fighting Leave Ethiopia in 'Very Difficult Humanitarian Situation'."
Amid the worst drought in 40 years and the outbreak of new conflict in northern Ethiopia, the United Nations has targeted 17 million people for humanitarian assistance. The UN also condemned Tigrayan forces for entering the World Food Program warehouse in Mekelle, taking 12 fuel tankers with 570,000 liters of fuel.
USAID published on 22 August 2022 an updated report on the humanitarian situation in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. The major concern is the drought in parts of the Horn of Africa. USAID anticipates that 20 million Ethiopians will need emergency assistance in 2022.
The South African Institute for International Affairs reprinted on 22 July 2022 an article from Nikkei Asia titled "A Chinese Port in Nigeria Will Change the World Economy" by Lauren Johnston.
Nigeria's deep water port of Lekki, financed and built by China, received its first ship this month. It will significantly increase container capacity for Africa's largest country and economy. It will also expand Nigeria's oil refining and fertilizer production.
The Guardian (Nigeria) published on 14 July 2022 an article titled "Russia-Ukraine Conflict: What It Means for Africa" by Oluwafemi S. Agbelusi.
The author identifies the following reasons why many African countries have failed to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine: skepticism of NATO's motives, growing reliance on Moscow for arms purchases, increasing dependence on Russia for wheat and fertilizer, and a belief that this marks a return to the Cold War.
The Washington Post posted on 30 June 2022 an extensive article titled "Africa's Desperate Hunger: Ukraine War Pushes Somalia toward Famine" by Sudarsan Raghavan.
The article, which includes dramatic photography, reports that 18.4 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya now face acute food insecurity, about 7.1 million of them are Somalis--nearly half the nation's population. Interruption of grain supplies from Ukraine due to the invasion by Russia is contributing to the crisis.
In a companion piece published by The Washington Post on 6 July 2022 titled "I Covered Somalia's Last Famine a Decade Ago. It's about to Happen Again," Sudarsan Raghavan looks back on Somalia's famine in 2011.
South Africa's Institute for Security Studies published on 10 June 2022 a commentary titled "Africa Must Separate the Wheat from Russia's Geopolitical Chaff" by Peter Fabricius.
Vladimir Putin's meeting with the chairperson of the African Union and the head of the African Union Commission on the Africa food crisis ended without clarity on the next steps Russia will take to free up the export of Ukrainian and Russian grain.
The New Internationalist published on 7 June 2022 an article titled "The War in Ukraine Has Hit Africa's Food Security" by Ugochi Anyaka Oluigbo.
The author argues that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports threatens to cause serious damage to food supplies in Africa, which is heavily dependent on Russian and Ukrainian grain.
Pass Blue published on 6 June 2022 an article titled "9,000 Miles Away, South Africa's Economy Feels the Pain of Russia's War in Ukraine" by Nyasha Bhobo.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and blockade of its Black Sea ports has driven up food and fertilizer prices in South Africa, resulting in concerns about possible food riots. South Africa's "neutral" position on the war has resulted in a sharp policy difference between the ruling African National Congress and the opposition Democratic Alliance.
The Associated Press published on 30 May 2022 an article titled "War in Ukraine Adds to Food Price Hikes, Hunger in Africa."
Persistent drought in the Horn of Africa, COVID-19, internal conflict, climate change, and Russia's blockade of Black Sea ports that disrupts grain exports are causing 13 million people in the Horn of Africa to face severe hunger. Another 18 million people in the Sahel region face a similar challenge.
Aljazeera published on 25 May 2022 an article titled "AU Chairperson Says Africa a 'Collateral Victim' of Ukraine War."
The chairperson of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, said Africa has become the "collateral victim" of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine because of its impact on soaring food, energy, and fertilizer prices.
The Voice of America published on 6 May 2022 an article titled "UN - Destabilizing Impact of Russia-Ukraine War Feared in Africa" by Lisa Schlein.
UN officials warn that soaring prices of food, fuel, fertilizers, and other commodities due to the Russia-Ukraine war could have a profound destabilizing impact on Africa.
Vanguard published on 2 April 2022 an article titled "Russia, Ukraine War: My Fears for Nigeria, Other African Countries--Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala" by Luminous Jannamike.
The Director General of the World Trade Organization said she fears there will be a food crisis in some African countries since Russia's attack on Ukraine. In many African countries, food prices have already risen by 20 percent and fertilizer prices globally have increased by 300 percent.
The Conversation published on 30 March 2022 a commentary titled "Five Reasons Why Many African Countries Choose to Be 'Neutral'" by Olayinka Ajala, Leeds Beckett University.
The author suggests the following 5 reasons why many African countries have taken a "neutral" position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine: (1) skepticism about the motives of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; (2) growing reliance by some African countries on Russian arms; (3) growing dependence on Russia for wheat and fertilizer; (4) a sense that this is a return of the Cold War; and (5) the perception of some African countries that traditional Western allies are only focused on self interest.
Comment: Unfortunately, this analysis seems to omit any reference to the aggrieved party, Ukraine, or the depredations brought to it by Russia.
