Ukraine Competes with Russia and China in Africa

 Euromaidan Press, an on-line independent newspaper run by Ukrainian volunteers, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Ukraine Keeps Losing African Allies--And What Russia and China Built While No One Watched" by Peeter Helme.

Africa is the location of competition between Ukraine, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other.  Ukraine is losing.  Eight African countries now vote against Ukraine in the UN General Assembly (UNGA), up from one at the outbreak of Russia's attack against Ukraine in early 2022.  Support for Ukraine collapsed from 28 African countries in 2022 to 10 during a UNGA vote in February 2025.  Most are now non-committal.    

The article attributes this loss of African support for Ukraine to a Russian disinformation campaign in Africa, an expanded scholarship program, Russian Orthodox Church outreach, and mercenary support in several countries.  Russia's efforts in Africa are assisted by its ally, China, which has a massive economic engagement with the continent.  China also has 53 embassies in Africa, Russia 40, and Ukraine only 18.  The asymmetry in all categories of engagement is vast.

The article concludes that the ground shifted not because African countries support Russia's war, but because Moscow and Beijing built systems that reward distance from Kyiv.  

Russia's Strategy in Africa

 The Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (Free Network) published in December 2025 a paper titled "Russia's New Strategy in Africa: Big Ambitions, Limited Gains" by Maria Perrotta Berlin, Stockholm Institute for Transition Economics, and Lev Lvovskiy, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center.  

While Russia has intensified relations with a handful of African states, the overall involvement remains limited in scope and depth.  There has been a modest expansion of trade since 2022 and Russia's military cooperation agreements with African states have increased markedly in recent years.  

Voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly suggest declining rather than increasing support for Russian positions.  Russia's new strategy may yield short-term geopolitical leverage but shows little sign of delivering durable economic or political gains.

What Africa Wants from China in 2026

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "What to Expect from Africa-China Relations in 2026."

The focus of the analysis is what Africa hopes to get from China in 2026.  In summary, Africa seeks to rebalance its ties with China concerning debt sustainability, value addition, and industrialization and to move toward a more equal and transparent partnership that prioritizes long-term African development.  Africa wants a strategic partnership aligned with Agenda 2063.

Ukraine's Efforts to Counter Russia in Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 20 November 2025 an analysis titled "A Shadow War in the Global South: Are Kyiv's Operations in Africa Paying Off?" by Sam Bowden.  

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has conducted intelligence operations against the Kremlin across Africa and the Middle East.  Kyiv opened 8 new embassies in Africa after the Russian invasion in 2022, raising its total to 19.  But Ukraine's efforts continue to lag well behind Russia's engagement in Africa, and its outreach to the continent has been limited at best.  

Podcast on Current Situation in Sudan

 Aljazeera posted on 21 September 2025 a 30-minute Inside Story podcast titled "What's Driving the Violence in Sudan--and What Could Bring Peace?"

Sudan is the world's largest humanitarian, protection, and displacement crisis today.  A recent appeal by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE to accept a cease fire is not seen as a serious proposal by the warring Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Nor was there any expectation there would be a serious effort at the current session of the UN General Assembly in New York to deal with the conflict in Sudan.  

Turkey-Africa Relations

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 10 March 2025 an analysis titled "Turkey's Return to Africa" by Raphael Parens and Marcel Plichta.  

Turkey sees Africa as a core part of its global political and economic engagement and a source of support in international organizations.  Africa also provides critical raw materials and minerals for Turkish companies and markets for contractors, including Turkey's version of Russia's Wagner Group known as SADAT.  

Authoritarian African Governments Join US and Russia on Ukraine Vote

 The Hill published on 24 February 2025 an article titled "These 17 Countries Voted with US Against Ukraine UN Resolution" by Elizabeth Crisp.

Seventeen countries joined the US at the UN General Assembly in voting against a resolution condemning Russia as the aggressor in the war against Ukraine.  Eight of these countries--almost half the total--are among the most authoritarian in Africa: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic (CAR), Equatorial Guinea, Niger, Sudan, Eritrea, and Mali.

Comment:  Burkina Faso, CAR, Niger, Mali, and Sudan receive military support from Russia's Wagner Group or its Africa Corps. Is the US trying to build a new group of "friends" in Africa?  

The Nuanced Reality of China-Africa Relations

 American Diplomacy published in November 2024 a commentary titled "China in Africa: The Nuanced Reality of Belt and Road" by Hank Cohen, former US assistant secretary of state for African affairs.  

The author points out that China has shifted from doing infrastructure projects based on loans to working on a grant basis.  China is now providing much needed infrastructure for African countries without the harm of tying them up in debt.  He concludes that the reality of China's Africa policy contains more shades of grey than popularly understood.  The positives for Africans are real, but so are the potential pitfalls.

Why Does the China-Africa Summit Matter?

 Radio Free Asia published on 3 September 2024 an article titled "EXPLAINED: What Is the China-Africa Summit and Why Does It Matter?" by Luisetta Mudie.  

The article discusses the issues that are likely to come up at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit in Beijing that begins on 4 September, China's changing approach to infrastructure financing, and its goal of exporting Chinese-sponsored international norms to African countries.  

Russia-Eritrea Strategic Alliance

 PIME Asia News published on 11 March 2024 an article titled "The Strategic Alliance between Russia and Eritrea" by Vladimir Rozanskij.

This article describes the increasingly important relationship between Russia and Eritrea in recent years.

Russia's Diplomatic, Economic and Military Engagement in Africa

 The European Parliament published in February 2024 a briefing titled "Russia in Africa: An Atlas" by Anna Caprile and Eric Pichon.  

Russia's engagement in Africa seeks to break the diplomatic and economic isolation imposed by the West, to reassert its own relevance on the international stage as the champion of the new polycentric world, and to advance its geostrategic ambitions in mining, energy, and military presence in key areas such as the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.  Russia has concluded military cooperation agreements with 43 African countries, and is a major, though declining, arms supplier to Africa.

Chinese and Russian Relations with Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published in November 2023 a paper titled "The Dragon and the Bear in Africa: Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations" by Robert E. Hamilton, U.S. Army War College.  

This report analyzes Chinese and Russian diplomatic, military, and economic activity in Africa, the interests each activity is designed to advance, and how Beijing and Moscow interact in each of these areas.  The report is based on a chapter in an upcoming book.

The report concludes that diplomatically and economically, China dwarfs Russia in Africa.  Militarily Russia still retains a significant, if unconventional and unacknowledged, presence.  While they share the goal of undermining Western influence, for Russia this goal overrides all others.  Where China seeks to promote its model of governance, Russia seeks to undermine that of Western countries.  

Chinese-Russian interaction in Africa is a mixture of cooperative, complementary, compartmented, and competitive behavior.  Rather than coordinate their activities so that they are independent but mutually supporting, the two often simply stay out each other's way, both functionally and geographically.  While China and Russia do not overtly compete in Africa, some of their objectives are misaligned which could cause problems moving forward.  

China Restructures Its Global Infrastructure Initiative

 AIDDATA, a research lab at William & Mary, published in November 2023 a massive 393-page study titled "Belt and Road Reboot: Beijing's Bid to De-Risk Its Global Infrastructure Initiative" by Bradley C. Parks, Ammar A. Malik, Brooke Escobar, Sheng Zhang, Rory Fedorochko, Kyra Solomon, Fei Wang, Lydia Vlasto, Katherine Walsh, and Seth Goodman.  

The study concludes that Beijing's annual international development finance commitments--mostly other official flows (OOF) and much less overseas development assistance (ODA)--have not plummeted to nearly zero as some reporting has suggested. In spite of recent declines in lending, China remains the world's single largest source of international development finance.  China's ODA and OOF commitments to low- and middle-income countries are now hovering around $80 billion a year.  

Comment: the study is not, however, organized on a geographical basis and Chinese loans only to Africa have fallen to about $1 billion annually in recent years, down from a high of $28 billion in 2016.  The drop in Chinese loans has had a much greater impact on Africa than on the rest of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.  End Comment

By comparison, due in large part to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation's financing of private sector projects, Washington now provides about $60 billion of development finance each year to low- and middle-income countries.  

In an effort to de-risk financing, China is ratcheting down its use of the policy banks--China Export Import Bank and China Development Bank--while ratcheting up its use of state-owned commercial banks, such as ICBC and Bank of China.  Beijing is putting in place increasingly stringent safeguards to shield itself from the risk of not being repaid.  Comment:  This accounts for much of the sharp drop in recent lending to countries in Africa.  

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Winning Public Relations Battle

 World Politics Review published on 2 November 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan's Army Is Losing the Public Relations War--and the Real One" by Elfadil Ibrahim.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) recently took control of Nyala, Sudan's second largest city, but is also winning the public relations battle against the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) in spite of the RSF's engaging in genocide in Darfur as well as using civilians for human shields in Khartoum. 

Despite its evident military superiority over the SAF, it remains unlikely that the RSF will be able to take control of the entire country, let alone rule it.  No amount of effective public relations can hide the fact that the RSF poses a grave threat to Sudan's civilian population and the region's security. 

China: Combining Soft Power and Hard Power in Africa

 MES Insights, which partners with the Marine Corps University Press, published in June 2023 an analysis titled "China's Engagement in Africa: Security Initiatives and United Nations Voting" by Daniel Rice.   

The author concludes that China's ultimate goal in Africa is to increase its global influence by shaping the international conditions necessary for its rise on the global stage.  China's influence in Africa is demonstrating tangible results for Communist Party of China in the form of voting patterns in the United Nations.  

Africa-China: Natural Resources, Markets and Votes (in French)

 Geostrategiques published in March 2023 an article titled "Afrique-Chine: Des Ressources Naturelles, des Marches et des Votes" by Thierry Pairault. 

Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa is modest, which limits its role in manufacturing and industrialization.  China is a major, but diminishing, source of loans for infrastructure projects and Africa's largest trading partner.   

How Will Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Change Its Relations with Africa?

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in April 2023 a study titled "Will the Invasion of Ukraine Change Russia-Africa Relations?" by Ronak Gopaldas, director at Signal Risk.

The author concluded that the likeliest outcome for Africa from any eventuality of the war in Ukraine is that Russia's capabilities, influence, and presence on the continent will be blunted by its financial, military, and personnel-related overstretch in Ukraine.  Russia may leave a vacuum that could be more destabilizing than its presence.

An Indian View of Russia-Africa Ties in 2023

 India's Observer Research Foundation published on 26 February 2023 a commentary titled "How Will Russia-Africa Ties Look in 2023?" by Abhishek Mishra.

Africa is not a political monolith; on matters of peace and security there are divergent views.  There are practical reasons such as arms sales why Russia attracts more support from Africans than does Ukraine.  The war in Ukraine is a sensitive issue, which Africans prefer to distance themselves from.  

Analysis of South Africa/Russia/China Joint Naval Exercise

 European Security & Defence published on 3 March 2023 an article titled "'Mosi II' Naval Exercise Concluded, But Ramifications Continue" by Hans Uwe Mergener.

South African, Russian, and Chinese navies held a joint exercise off Cape Town that ended on 27 February.  South Africa deployed only a single frigate, giving some indication of the South African Navy's current operational capability.  The exercise demonstrated that Western efforts to isolate Russia are not resonating in the Global South.  It was also an indication of China's growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean that may impact the strategic balance in Africa.

Most African Countries Demand that Russia Leave Ukraine

 Members of the UN General Assembly voted by a wide margin on 23 February demanding that Russia end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces.  The vote was 141 in favor, 32 abstentions, and 7 against.  A majority of African countries supported the demand that Russian forces depart Ukraine.   

Fifteen (Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Sudan, Togo, Uganda, and Zimbabwe) abstained on the resolution and seven (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Guinea Bissau, Senegal, and Tanzania) did not vote.  Two African countries--Eritrea and Mali--joined Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua, and Syria in opposing the resolution.  

In all, only 24 of Africa's 54 countries abstained, did not vote, or sided with Russia in opposing the resolution.