The Atlantic Council published in August 2025 a paper titled "Addressing China's Military Expansion in West Africa and Beyond" by Tressa Guenov.
The United States needs to develop a strategic approach to Africa that addresses all Chinese security-related initiatives on the continent. This is not the time for Washington to be pushing back from a region as important as Africa.
The China Global South Project posted on 23 July 2025 a Q & A titled "China's 'Feeling the Stones' Approach to African Security Takes Shape" with Lungani Hlongwa, China-Africa Security Radar, and Paul Nantulya, Africa Center for Security Studies in Washington.
China sees Africa as central to the future of the international order. Because of increasing threats to Chinese nationals and interests in Africa, the security element of China's engagement has become more important. But China is not following a single strategy for dealing with the security challenges that it faces. Chinese policy is usually aligned at the strategic level but often encounters fragmentation at the level of execution.
Semafor posted on 21 May 2025 a commentary titled "Analysis: The Challenge with Trump's 'Trade Not Aid' African Strategy" by W. Gyude Moore.
The author suggests that while there may be merit in the Trump administration's Africa strategy, it is almost impossible to implement it when you dismantle the institutions designed to do so.
The Atlantic Council published on 5 May 2025 an analysis titled "How China Turned the Red Sea into a Strategic Trap for the US" by Fatima Abo Alasrar, Washington Center for Yemen Studies.
From the beginning, China made a deal with the Houthis to exempt Chinese-flagged and owned vessels from attack. Chinese companies subsequently strengthened Houthi capabilities by providing satellite targeting data. Beijing now portrays the crisis as revealing "United States' impotence" against "non-traditional opponents like the Houthis" while claiming US military intervention has "only triggered more resistance."
The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 21 April 2025 an analysis titled "How the UK-Mauritius Deal on Chagos Could Reshape US Military Strategy in the Indian Ocean" by Raghvendra Kumar.
Diego Garcia hosts a joint Anglo-American military base with a deepwater port capable of berthing aircraft carriers, a long runway that enables deep-strike operations and accommodates heavy bombers and refueling aircraft, advanced satellite communication facilities, and strategically pre-positioned military support and supplies.
The Diego Garcia base, which most recently has been used to launch airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, remains critical to US military strategy in the Indian Ocean. It provides the strategic depth necessary to deter aggression, defend US interests, restore freedom of navigation, and secure vital sea lines of communication. It takes on added importance as China expands its military footprint in the Indian Ocean region.
The China Global South Project published on 17 April 2025 an article titled "China Eyes Strategic Role in Kenya's Port Privatization Plans" by Christain Geraud Neema Byamungu.
China is positioning itself for a larger role in Kenya's port infrastructure. The China Communication Construction Company (CCCC) has recently been awarded the contract to construct Berth 198 at the Port of Mombasa. CCCC previously provided maritime infrastructure at the port of Lamu.
The Journal of Contemporary China posted on 8 April 2025 an article titled "Testbed or Thoroughfare? Africa's Place in China's Evolving Grand Strategy" by Benjamin Barton and Padraig Carmody.
The article looks at Africa's place in China's global geo-strategy. It evaluates China's strategic-relational approach to foreign policy in the context of Africa's evolving position in China's global geostrategic engagements.
Foreign Affairs published on 7 April 2025 a commentary titled "America Needs a Real Indian Ocean Strategy" by Arzan Tarapore, Stanford University.
Chinese submarine activity will soon surpass India's ability to counter it in the Indian Ocean and India is ill equipped to offset China's growing naval presence. India's contributions to regional security are significant, but they will be dwarfed by what it will take to counter China's increasing naval capacity.
The author calls on the United States to craft a comprehensive strategy for the Indian Ocean because within a decade an expanding Chinese naval presence will be able to imperil global shipping lanes, extract more resources from countries in the region, and project force far beyond its current ability. The focus of this US strategy should be building collective military power.
The March 2024 issue of The Journal of Modern African Studies published a review by Padraig Carmody of our book, China's Relations with Africa: A New Era of Strategic Engagement.
The South African Institute of International Affairs published on 19 September 2024 a commentary titled "Can Old Alliances Survive New Realities in Russia-South Africa Relations?" by Gustavo de Carvalho and Xiang Chen.
Historically close ties between the Soviet Union and the anti-apartheid movement (now the government) in South Africa is encountering a younger generation of leaders who are less concerned with this legacy. As a result, there is strategic ambiguity in South Africa's policy today vis-a-vis Russia.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in September 2024 a report titled "The Middle East's View of the 'China Model'" by Jon B. Alterman.
The CSIS Middle East Program researched Arab populations' desire for an alternative development model to the one proffered by Western states. The project focused on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.
The study concluded that China's Middle East strategy is focused on the United States, but China is not engaged in straightforward competition. China's strategy does not seek to replace the United States in the Middle East, push it out, or outcompete it. Instead, China is working to untie the Middle East from the United States and to make the region and world more receptive to China.
China will continue to seek to increase its role in the Middle East. The United States should not fear China's presence. Rather, Washington needs to sharpen regional understandings of the value of U.S. partnerships, lower the costs of maintaining them, and clarify the consequences of undermining them.
The Conversation published on 2 September 2024 a commentary titled "China Reaps Most of the Benefits of Its Relationship with Africa: What's Behind the Imbalance" by Bhaso Ndzendze, University of Johannesburg.
At the 8 previous meetings of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, China has reaped most of the benefits. The fault lies with Africa's lack of a strategy for engagement with China. The forum is a platform for China to dole out aid and loans to African countries, and to articulate priorities that serve its own broader ambitions. Africa's voice is minimal in the agenda setting.
Africa needs a concerted approach towards China and all of its so-called strategic partnerships. The African Union Commission should negotiate and set the overall direction in these forums. China has had a long-standing Africa strategy; Africa has none for China. The result is the imbalanced terms of trade between China and African countries.
The Conversation published on 2 September 2024 a commentary titled "African Nations Can Do More to Benefit from Ties with China, the World's Second-strongest Economy" by Theo Neethling, University of the Free State.
Unlike China, African states have yet to produce a comprehensive, unified policy document outlining the continent's strategic interests, and how they align with the China-Africa Vision for Cooperation 2035. The author argues that African states must unite and adopt a more coordinated approach.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 20 August 2024 a commentary titled "FOCAC 2024: Elevating African Interests Beyond the Africa-China Summit" by Paul Nantulya.
The Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is still shaped largely by a donor-recipient dynamic, where African countries mostly take a back seat while China initiates much of the agenda. African countries have little coherent strategy for China while Beijing is clear about its objectives. FOCAC is viewed as serving primarily Chinese interests. African engagement needs to be more proactive.
The most recent edition of the China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, published by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, contains an article titled "The Chinese and American Military Installations in Djibouti: National and Regional Security Implications" by Abebe Alemu Melese, a PhD candidate at Addis Ababa University.
This analysis by an Ethiopian published in an official Chinese journal offers useful insights on how both Ethiopia and China see great power competition in the Horn of Africa. The author concludes that great power rivalry in the Horn of Africa has undermined the regional integration process. It has changed the regional balance of power in favor of Red Sea littoral states. Income from military base rents and port investments has empowered littoral states vis-a-vis Ethiopia.
China's Relations with Africa: A New Era of Strategic Engagement has been published by Columbia University Press (CUP) and will be widely available online and in bookstores as of 1 August. CUP kindly made an initial paperback and eBook edition available so that it is affordable. Preorder guidelines are explained in the link above.
Publication brings to an end a five-year project that resulted in considerable research in Africa and China. Due to the fast changing nature of the China-Africa relationship, the project resulted in numerous rewrites and constant updating. It covers all countries in Africa, including North Africa. The book focuses on the political, security, and strategic relationship.
Thierry Pairault has translated a Chinese document to French titled "As 'Decoupling' Intensifies, Africa Is the Key to China's Breakthrough: Reflections from a Closed-Door Meeting" and subtitled "La Russie, l'Ukraine et le 'repositionnement' strategique de la Chine vers l'Afrique."
The Chinese document is the report of a symposium held on 27 May 2022 held under the aegis of the journal Culture and the Association for Research in Eurasian Systems Science. In their reflections, references to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are an opportunity to urge a revision of China's international strategy that more effectively counters the West led by the United States. Africa plays a key role.
The Daily Maverick published on 7 March 2022 a commentary titled "The African Union Cannot Go to Beijing without an Action Plan" by Hellen Adogo, University of Johannesburg.
The African Union is opening a permanent mission in Beijing. Africa does not have a strategy for its engagement with China. The author argues that it is overdue for the African Union to develop a strategy that will leverage Chinese expertise to effectively support Africa's implementation of Agenda 2063.
War on the Rocks posted on 4 March 2022 an analysis titled "China's Strategic Assessment of Russia: More Complicated Than you Think" by Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center.
This is an excellent analysis of how China views its current relationship with Russia. The author argues that two factors bring Russia and China together. The first and most important is the shared threat posed by the United States. The second is President Xi Jinping's respect for Vladimir Putin's leadership skills and nostalgia for the Sino-Soviet partnership.
On the other hand, the prospects for long-term Sino-Russian cooperation are limited by four important factors. First, China and Russia have different visions of the international order. Second, China believes that Russia's ambitions outpace its capabilities. Third, China fears a Russian betrayal of China. Fourth, the Chinese and Russian economies are not complementary in the long run.
Russia's military and diplomatic power, and hybrid warfare approach, resides in its strategy of chaos to maximize Russian leverage and bargaining power. Russia benefits from instability, while China prefers stability. Both China and Russia seek to revise the international order, but differ in the process by which they want to change it and the magnitude of changes they prefer.
The author concludes that it is hard to predict the longevity and stability of the current Sino-Russian alignment. It begins and ends with China's anti-U.S. agenda and is strengthened by Xi's personal preferences.
Comment: There is no mention of Africa in Yun Sun's analysis, although it has implications for the China-Russia relationship in Africa. Almost half of the countries in Africa joined China in abstaining or failed to vote on the UN General Assembly resolution that condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (Eritrea was the only African country to side with Russia; a majority of African countries condemned Russia.) China and Russia routinely oppose sanctions proposed in the UN Security Council against African countries. There has been limited security sector cooperation such as the trilateral naval exercise off South Africa in 2019. All three countries are members of BRICS. China and Russia are committed to diminishing Western, and especially American, influence in Africa.
But the differences in how China and Russia see the world may be more important for Africa than where their interests overlap. Beijing's preference for development and political stability in Africa, which actually coincides with Washinton's interest, does not align with Moscow's preference for instability and even chaos in some situations. Russian examples of this are use of Wagner Group mercenaries in countries such as Libya and the Central African Republic. Russia has minimal ability to contribute to development in Africa while China has substantial resources for this purpose. In those areas where Russia can make an important contribution such as nuclear power development, space cooperation, and investment in mining, it is in direct competition with China.
The National Bureau of Asian Research published in June 2012 a report titled "A New Great Game? Situating Africa in China's Strategic Thinking" by Nadege Rolland.
The author concludes that Chinese strategists seem to envisage Africa as an essential piece in an escalating geostrategic contest for global influence between China and the U.S.-led West. Beijing's emerging strategy aims at making the continent fit into a new subsystem comprising much of the global South that China aspires to dominate. China aims to persuade African countries to adopt aspects of its political and economic system and is preparing to export its model to Africa and perhaps to other parts of the developing world as well.
