US Africa Assistant Secretary's Visit to Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya

 Firstpost posted on 1 September 2026 a 15-minute podcast titled "Trump Targets Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya" with Alyson Le Grange.

The podcast reviews US ties with Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya as US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Frank Garcia, makes his inaugural visit to those countries.  Le Grange discusses critical minerals in Zambia, Red Sea security with Ethiopia, and Kenya's status as the only US non-NATO ally in sub-Saharan Africa.  She asks about Washington's "trade not aid" policy and wonders what Africa wants out of its relationship with the United States.

US and Chinese Companies Compete for Ethiopia's New Airport

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 August 2026 an article titled "US-China Rivalry Takes Flight Over Scramble for Contracts at Ethiopia's Bishoftu Airport" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

American private sector companies and Chinese state-owned companies are competing for contracts concerning the construction of Africa's largest new airport outside Addis Ababa and the supply of equipment to Ethiopian Airlines, Africa's largest.

US-China Competition for Ethiopia's New International Airport

 Business Insider Africa published on 30 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's $12.5 Billion Airport Has Become the Latest Investment Battleground between the U.S. and China in Africa" by Solomon Ekanem.

The United States is seeking a role for its private sector companies in the development of Ethiopia's new $12.5 billion Bishoftu Airport as it challenges China's commanding position of building infrastructure projects in Africa by its state-owned companies.

The United States sees this as an opening for its construction and engineering companies and an opportunity to sell more Boeing aircraft to Ethiopian Airlines.  In addition, the Bishoftu Airport is a gateway to influence Africa's fast-growing aviation, logistics, and technology sectors.

Chinese Private Sector Investment in Angolan Port Terminal

 Business Insider Africa published on 21 July 2026 an article titled "Another African Country Gets $900 Million Chinese-backed Port Investment Amid Beijing's Billion-dollar Race Across the Continent" by Olamilekan Okebiorun.

China's Huatong Angola Industry has signed a $900 million deal with Angola's state-owned Barra do Dande Development Company covering a 25-year sub-concession for the construction and operation of a port terminal and supporting infrastructure.  This is entirely a private sector investment.

This deal is part of a new Chinese investment strategy in Africa that is moving away from large government-backed loans and towards foreign direct investment, private financing, and commercially viable projects.  

Ethiopia Says It Attracted $13 Billion in Mostly Chinese Investment

Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs posted on 30 March 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Investment Surge and the Strategic Repositioning of Addis Ababa as Africa's Diplomatic-Economic Nexus" by Kena Seyife.  

The "Invest in Ethiopia 2026 Forum" attracted over 800 investors from more than 50 countries and secured over $13 billion in investment commitments.  China's Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Ltd. committed to invest $10 billion in green ammonia and electrical equipment.  The article cautions that Ethiopia's success will depend on its ability to translate investments into tangible economic transformation. 

Comment: Ethiopia is facing several internal security challenges that must be addressed before this kind of investment actually materializes.  It will be important to monitor how many of these commitments valued at $13 billion result in completed projects.    

China-US Competition for Artificial Intelligence in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Africa Emerges as New Arena in US-China Competition over Artificial Intelligence" by Lucy Quaggin.

Africa is increasingly seen as a critical region for artificial intelligence development because of its population and economic growth.  By 2050, one quarter of the world's population will be in Africa.  American and Chinese companies are competing for the African market and support to set standards.  

Guinea: China and the US Compete

 The Atlantic Council published on 24 February 2026 a commentary titled "In Guinea, the US Has a Rare Opportunity to Gain an Edge Over China" by Rose Keravouri and Maureen Farrell.

Recognizing the risks of overreliance on a single external partner and frustrated with Chinese firms' opacity and non-compliance with local requirements, its leadership has signaled a willingness to push back against China's mining domination.

The Trump administration invited President Mamady Doumbouya to Washington in early February and is encouraging the American private sector to invest in mining opportunities in Guinea.  The US is also exploring security cooperation with Guinea, which now offers a good opportunity for increased engagement with the United States.

US, China, and AI Competition in Africa

 The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published on 7 February 2026 an article titled "The United States, China, and AI Competition in Africa: Lessons for the Global South" by Alice Chen, Kobre & Kim LLP, and Neel U. Sukhatme, University of Michigan Law School.  

The article compares US and Chinese approaches to artificial intelligence (AI) exports in Africa and examines how these disparate approaches have produced both downstream benefits and challenges for the region.  Overall, the United States focus on domestic policy and corporate activity and China's focus on state strategy and infrastructure have presented unique opportunities and risks for African countries.  It concludes with policy recommendations for countries in the Global South to maximize benefits and mitigate risks associated with US-China AI competition.

The Flaws of "Trade Not Aid" in Africa and Beyond

 Semafor published on 19 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Flaws of 'Trade Not Aid'" by Daniele Nyirandutiye, Desmos Capital Partners.

The State Department unveiled early last year a "Commercial Diplomacy Strategy for Africa" that focused on trade and investment as the centerpiece of engagement.  The author of the commentary in Semafor argues that trade and aid were never meant to compete.  When strategically aligned, they unlock Africa's growth.  But commercial diplomacy without development capacity is not viable.  US private direct investment can play a more useful role, but only if there are adequate incentives in Washington and technical capacity at embassies to assist the private sector. 

Comment:  The author makes a particularly good point when it comes to trade.  US goods trade with sub-Saharan Africa peaked in 2008 and has generally declined since, due primarily to the sharp reduction by the United States in the importation of African oil.  But US goods exports to sub-Saharan Africa have never been impressive, peaking at $25 billion in 2014 and remaining at less than $20 billion in subsequent years.  While increased US-Africa trade is an important goal for both parties and should be encouraged, it is utter fantasy to conclude that trade will replace aid. 

Africa's Critical Minerals: Is China or the United States the Better Partner?

 The Diplomat published on 5 February 2026 an analysis titled "China and the US Want Africa's Critical Minerals, Will African Countries Actually Benefit?" by Juliet Onyino and Weilu Jiang, both at Development Reimagined.

The authors concluded that neither the American nor the Chinese critical mineral strategies fully advance Agenda 2063's vision of African-led structural transformation.  In both cases, Africa's development objectives remain secondary unless effectively enforced through negotiation and policy coordination. 

Revival of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa

 Australia's Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Shanghai published on 18 January 2026 "China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025" by Christoph Nedopil Wang.

Since the beginning of BRI in 2013, the report says Chinese construction projects (profit making opportunities by Chinese construction companies) totaled $837 billion globally while investment projects totaled $561 billion globally.  The figures are based on having an active memorandum of understanding with China at the time of the report.  Energy, mining, and transportation projects top the list.

In 2025, Africa accounted for a significant increase ($61.2 billion) in BRI engagement (construction projects and investment), but most of it was in construction projects (47 percent of global total) and not investment (22 percent of global total).  Nigeria alone accounted for $24.6 billion in construction projects and the Republic of the Congo for another $23.1 billion.  

USAID Dismantlement Causes Painful Cuts in Humanitarian Aid

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 10 December 2025 a report titled "The Painful, Seismic Shift in Humanitarian Aid -- And What's Next" by Allison Lombardo and Stewart Patrick.  

For decades the United States was by far the world's largest humanitarian aid donor.  In 2024, it provided 38 percent of total emergency assistance tracked by the United Nations.  The dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development by the Trump administration changed all of this.

The Trump administration's proposed FY2026 budget cuts funding for humanitarian aid by 70 percent.  It cut funding for the World Food Program by more than 90 percent and made huge cuts in funding for UNICEF and the International Organization for migration.  

Africa is the biggest loser in these US cutbacks.  The continent accounts for 10 of the 13 hardest hit countries.  

The US Can Outcompete China in Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute published on 26 November 2025 a commentary titled "The U.S. Can Outcompete China in Africa" by Liam Karr and Yale Ford.

AEI argues that American companies have a better track record than Chinese companies on issues such as protecting the environment, worker safety, and labor standards.  US companies are less likely to make some of the mistakes made recently in Africa by Chinese companies.  Consequently, African countries should be attracting more US investment, and US companies should win more construction contracts than Chinese companies.

Comment:  In theory, this is a valid argument, but it overlooks financing advantages often offered by Chinese state banks and state-owned companies, a larger on the ground presence in Africa by important sectors such as Chinese construction and IT companies, a willingness by Chinese companies to take higher risks, a greater willingness by Chinese companies to engage in corrupt practices that are all too common in Africa, fewer governmental incentives available to American companies, and just less interest in Africa by American companies.  There is no indication this situation will change anytime soon.  

Interview on Multipolarity and US Africa Policy

 The international press agency Pressenza published on 15 November 2025 my interview titled "Obama, Biden and Trump: Changing U.S. Policy towards Africa" moderated by Kester Kenn Klomegah.  

The interview focused on the impact in Africa of a multipolar world and the approach towards Africa of President Obama, Biden, and Trump.  

Modern Diplomacy posted the same interview on 16 November 2025.

China-Sierra Leone Trade/Investment Cooperation

 The Calabash Newspaper published on 24 October 2025 an article titled "To Boost Sierra Leone-China Trade Relations . . . Vice President Hails Inauguration of 5th Chinese Chamber of Commerce" by Alvin Lansana Kargbo.

China is Sierra Leone's largest trading partner ($1.8 billion in 2024) and biggest source of foreign direct investment, which has surpassed $2 billion.  The two countries recently inaugurated the 5th Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Sierra Leone, which brings together 17 Chinese companies.

Sierra Leone's vice president commented at the inauguration of the Chamber of Commerce that when development aid to Africa is declining, private sector investment becomes critical for Sierra Leone's economic resilience.  

Comment: The vice president's comment is a lightly veiled reference to the dismantlement of USAID and cutbacks in development assistance by some European countries.  The question now is whether Western private companies will actually step up investment in countries like Sierra Leone.   

Chinese Companies Make Big Investment in Nigerian Lithium

 The Guardian published on 26 October 2025 an article titled "Chinese Firms Invest $1.3b in Nigeria's Lithium Sector--Alake" by Ernest Nzor.  

A number of Chinese companies have invested over $1.3 billion in Nigeria's lithium processing sector since September 2023.  

Strong Growth Rate in Ethiopia

 Finance in Africa posted on 12 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia's GDP Accelerates as Exports Hit Record $8.3bn" by Amarachi Orjiude-Ndibe. 

Ethiopia's economy expanded 8.8 percent in fiscal year 2024/25, which ended on 8 July.  Ethiopia expects to achieve 9 percent growth for the current fiscal year.  Annual inflation remains a concern at almost 14 percent last fiscal year.  

China-EU Competition in Africa

 Courthouse News Service published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "EU Woos Mineral-rich Africa as China Tightens Resource Grip" by Yuval Molina Obedman.  

The European Union pledged $440 Billion through 2027 in infrastructure investment in Africa as it competes for influence with China. The EU program emphasizes private sector investment and blended finance using grants, loans, and guarantees.  

Chinese Companies Are Changing the Way They Operate in Africa

 The Conversation published on 7 October 2025 a commentary titled "Chinese Companies Are Changing the Way They Operate in Africa: Here's How" by Elisa Gambino and Costanza Franceschini.  

China's state loans once powered the ability of Chinese companies to win construction contracts in Africa.  But the loans have declined significantly.  Since 2019, Chinese lenders have committed only $6 billion for the development of African infrastructure.  Yet, Chinese companies continue to expand their construction of infrastructure projects in Africa.  This article explains how.  

Sudan: Business Connections between Rapid Support Forces and UAE

 The Sentry published in October 2025 a report titled "The RSF's Business Network in the UAE."

The report details the extensive business connections between Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and private companies in the UAE.