Somali Public Opinion on Somalia's Political Future

 The Somali Public Agenda and Somali Dialogue Platform published in July 2026 a study titled "Navigating Political Transition: Citizens' Views on Elections, Legitimacy, and Governance in Somalia."

This study addresses how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability by means of a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents.  

The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.

The findings show that citizens express strong support for democratic reform in principle, but their preferences become more complex when democratic goals are weighed against peace, stability, term limits, press freedom, and public participation.

Africa Youth Survey: Perceptions of China and US

 The Ichikowitz Family Foundation just published its massive African Youth Survey 2026.  It held face-to-face interviews with about 5,000 Africans aged 18-24 from 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

It covers many issues, but the focus here is perceptions of China and the United States.  African youth see China (79 percent) and the United States (81 percent) as the most influential foreign actors, although China's influence is seen as somewhat more positive.

The survey looked at the influence of the US, China, Brazil, EU, UK, Germany, France, India, and Russia.  The only country whose influence was seen as less positive than the United States (85 percent) was Russia (83 percent).  

About 3 in 5 youth are optimistic about Africa's future during the Trump administration, especially on military support and security.  Just under half believe the closure of USAID will negatively impact their country, with healthcare and disease prevention seen as the areas most affected.  

China and India are increasingly viewed as more favorable partners than the United States, a sentiment shaped in part by the return of the Trump administration.  

African Views of the US vis-a-vis China Fall Since Beginning of Trump Administration

 The Pew Research Center published on 15 July 2026 research results titled "People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively than the U.S." by Jonathan Schulman, Laura Silver, Laura Clancy, and William Miner.

Pew surveyed public opinion of the United States and China in 36 countries, including 4--South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana--in Africa.  Since the beginning of the Trump administration, positive perceptions of the United States in the 4 African countries vis-a-vis China have fallen, although the US still maintains a slight lead in Ghana. 

Positive views of the United States and China today are: 

South Africa: 35 percent for the US and 52 percent for China

Nigeria: 63 percent for the US and 78 percent for China

Kenya: 63 percent for the US and 76 percent for China

Ghana: 68 percent for the US and 64 percent for China

When asked if they are confident Donald Trump or Xi Jinping will do the right thing, the results were:

South Africa: 26 percent for Trump and 46 percent for Xi

Kenya: 63 percent for Trump and 73 percent for Xi

Ghana: 54 percent for Trump and 56 percent for Xi

Nigeria: 65 percent for Trump and 62 percent for Xi

  

Ghanaian Perceptions of the United States and China

 The Third World Quarterly published on 17 June 2026 a research article titled "Navigating Cooperation with Great Powers: Elite Perceptions of U.S. and Chinese Economic Engagement in Ghana in the Twenty-first Century" by Monika Rozalska, Paulina Matera, and Bartosz Kowalski.

This study is based on in-depth interviews with a limited sample--22 Ghanaian university professors, government officials, and non-governmental leaders.  It concludes that both China and the United States engage in neocolonial practices to varying degrees.  While both countries promote development, it is questionable whether their activities align with Ghanaian priorities.  Beijing and Washington emphasize access to raw materials over empowering local industrial development.  As a result, Ghana pursues a policy of balance towards the United States and China.  

Seychelles More Positive on India and China than US

 Afrobarometer posted on 1 June 2026 a news release titled "Majority of Seychellois Welcome the Influence of India and China, Favour Neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War."

Favorable perceptions of China's influence on Seychelles have increased significantly in recent years while those of the United States have fallen.  An overwhelming majority of Seychellois favor neutrality on Russia's war against Ukraine but more have a negative than positive perception of Russia's influence on Seychelles.  

African Perceptions of China, US and Russia

 Afro Barometer posted on 27 February 2026 a survey titled "Popular Perceptions of Russia Lag Even as Its Influence grows Across Africa" by Aubrey Ghambi, Alfred Kwadzo, and Carolyn Logan.  

While most of the analysis is about the position of Russia in Africa, this survey of 38 African countries found that China received the best marks on positive influence (62 percent).  The United States has fallen behind at 52 percent positive rating, the European Union at 50 percent, India 39 percent, and Russia 36 percent.  The negative perceptions were more similar with China (17 percent), US (20 percent), EU (17 percent), India (20 percent), and Russia (23 percent).  

Is China's Media Campaign in Africa Working?

 Semafor published on 2 March 2026 an article titled "China's Media Push in Africa Has Largely Failed, Analysts Say" by Jeronimo Gonzalez.   

Although Africans perceived China's influence positively in a recent Afro Barometer poll, a Nigerian analyst believes Beijing's multi-billion media campaign to attract an audience has largely failed.  African audiences still prefer news from the West.

Comment:  The fact remains that the Afro Barometer poll of 29 countries indicates Africans have a more positive perception of China's influence in Africa than of US or EU influence.  The negative perception of all three is about the same.  

South Africans View China More Favorably than United States

 The Pew Research Center published on 13 November 2025 a report titled "South Africans See Their Country's Influence Weakening Ahead of G20: China Gets Higher Ratings than the U.S." by Laura Clancy, Jordan Lippert, and Manolo Corichi.  

According to a Pew survey, 57 percent of South Africans have favorable opinions of China while 50 percent hold the same view of the United States.  This is the first time ratings of China are higher than ratings of the United States since Pew began tracking South African opinion of these countries in 2008.

In addition, more South Africans say that it is important to have strong economic ties with China (50 percent) than say the same about the United States (33 percent).

Zambian Perceptions of China, US, and Russia

 Afrobarometer published on 29 September 2025 a survey titled "Zambians Support Open Trade, Greater African Voice in International Affairs" by Edward Chibwill. 

A broader survey of Zambian public opinion includes an assessment of perceptions of China, the United States, and Russia.  Zambians expressed a 51 percent positive view of China's economic and political influence in the country versus an 8 percent negative view.  The ranking for the United States was 45 percent positive and 9 percent negative and for Russia 19 percent positive and 15 percent negative.  The remaining percentages were neutral.  

The percentage of Zambians who viewed China's influence on Zambia as positive in 2014 was 72 percent.  It declined to 61 percent in 2020 and 42 percent in 2022 before rising to 51 percent in 2024. 

China's Economic Influence in Africa

 The IE China Observatory and Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in collaboration with Afrobarometer and the IE Africa Program published in September 2025 a report titled "China's Economic Influence in Africa: A Data Driven Analysis."

The report is based on large-scale survey data from 27 African countries and looks at how ordinary citizens across Africa perceive Chinese economic influence. The report concludes that China's impact is neither uniform nor static.  The findings vary by country, region, demographic, and socioeconomic status.  

Kenya Moves Closer to China

 The Star published on 18 May 2025 an article titled "US at a Crossroads in Africa as China Rekindles Ties with Kenya" by Eliud Kibii.

Kenya's increasing engagement with China raises concerns about the future of Kenya-US relations.  Unlike China, the US also lacks a coherent, long-term strategy toward Africa.

China and the United States Have High Positive Leadership Ratings in Africa

 Penkelemesi, a newsletter dedicated to analysis of African politics, economy, and international affairs, published on 21 May 2024 an article arguing that Africa's international relations transcend the simplistic binary framework of U.S.-China relations by Chris O. Ogunmodede.  

A 2024 Gallup Rating World Leaders report found the median approval in Africa of China at 58 percent and the United States at 56 percent.  Some analysts have framed this result as the United States losing influence to China.

The author argues this is a misinterpretation of public opinion data that have consistently demonstrated positive and similar views of both China and the United States in Africa.  Most Africans want to have good relations with both countries.

African Perception of Chinese Leadership Edges Ahead of US

 Gallup published on 26 April 2024 an article titled "U.S. Loses Soft Power Edge in Africa" by Benedict Vigers.

Gallup just published the results for 2023 of approval ratings in 36 of Africa's 54 countries on leadership in the United States, China, Russia, and Germany.  In 2023, China nudged ahead of the United States by two points compared with 2022.  Both the United States and China remained well ahead of Russia, which did restore its position following a drop in the aftermath of its attack on Ukraine.  

The view of U.S. leadership improved significantly in Ghana, Mauritania, Cote d'Ivoire, and Tunisia but declined sharply in Kenya, Gambia, and Uganda.  China's position was much stronger in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Guinea, but fell sharply in Gambia and Uganda.  The approval rating for the United States, China, and Russia is down significantly from where it was in 2011.

China Manages Risk in Its Belt and Road Initiative

 AIDDATA published on 6 November 2023 a commentary titled "Belt and Road Bounces Back, as Beijing Seeks to Future-proof Its Flagship Global Infrastructure Initiative" by Alex Wooley.

This is a commentary on AIDDATA's massive report on China's Belt and Road Initiative.  The report discusses the measures Beijing is taking to manage repayment risk; environmental, social, and governance risk; and reputational risk in its overseas project portfolio.  

China Restructures Its Global Infrastructure Initiative

 AIDDATA, a research lab at William & Mary, published in November 2023 a massive 393-page study titled "Belt and Road Reboot: Beijing's Bid to De-Risk Its Global Infrastructure Initiative" by Bradley C. Parks, Ammar A. Malik, Brooke Escobar, Sheng Zhang, Rory Fedorochko, Kyra Solomon, Fei Wang, Lydia Vlasto, Katherine Walsh, and Seth Goodman.  

The study concludes that Beijing's annual international development finance commitments--mostly other official flows (OOF) and much less overseas development assistance (ODA)--have not plummeted to nearly zero as some reporting has suggested. In spite of recent declines in lending, China remains the world's single largest source of international development finance.  China's ODA and OOF commitments to low- and middle-income countries are now hovering around $80 billion a year.  

Comment: the study is not, however, organized on a geographical basis and Chinese loans only to Africa have fallen to about $1 billion annually in recent years, down from a high of $28 billion in 2016.  The drop in Chinese loans has had a much greater impact on Africa than on the rest of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.  End Comment

By comparison, due in large part to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation's financing of private sector projects, Washington now provides about $60 billion of development finance each year to low- and middle-income countries.  

In an effort to de-risk financing, China is ratcheting down its use of the policy banks--China Export Import Bank and China Development Bank--while ratcheting up its use of state-owned commercial banks, such as ICBC and Bank of China.  Beijing is putting in place increasingly stringent safeguards to shield itself from the risk of not being repaid.  Comment:  This accounts for much of the sharp drop in recent lending to countries in Africa.  

African Perceptions of the China Development Model

Megatrends Afrika published in October 2023 a paper titled "What Explains African Perceptions of China as a Model of Development?" by Oscar M. Otele, University of Nairobi. 

Using Afrobarometer survey data, this paper utilizes multivariate logit models to account for the differences in perceptions among countries.  The paper establishes that education, gender, the rural-urban divide, and respondent's perceptions of the influence of China's economic activities on the country's economy accounted for the differences.

Zimbabwean Elites Critical of China's Influence in Their Country

 The Conversation published on 28 September 2023 a commentary titled "We Asked 1,000 Zimbabweans What They Think of China's Influence on Their Country - Only 37% Viewed It Favorably" by William Natungimana and Haruka Nagao.  

Two Zimbabwean professors of political science asked 1,000 urban professionals in Zimbabwe in March 2023 their view of China's influence on their country.  Only 37 percent viewed China's influence positively.  

Perceptions of China by Nigerian University Students

 The Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research published in September 2023 an article titled "Rethinking China: Perceptions from Africa a Survey of Nigerian University Students" by Nurettin Can, Sanar Muhyaddin, Ahmet Arabaci, Ibrahim Koncak, and Ibrahim Keles.  

The article looks at the sources from which 602 students in Nigerian universities receive information about China and solicits their opinions on several issues.  The internet and social media are the primary source of information about China.  The students are generally neutral on the responsible behavior of China as a global power, positive about China as a development model, and concerned about the influx of Chinese labor in Nigeria.  

China's Unfavorable Perception Lower in Africa than Elsewhere

 The Pew Research Center published on 27 July 2023  a public opinion study titled "China's Approach to Foreign Policy Gets Largely Negative Reviews in 24-Country Survey" by Laura Silver, Christine Huang, and Laura Clancy.

A median of 67 percent of adults in 24 countries expressed UNfavorable views of China's global role while 28 percent had a favorable view in a survey conducted from 20 February to 22 May 2023.  The survey included 3 African countries (South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria) where the UNfavorable opinion of China was much lower than in most of the other 24 countries in the survey.  The UNfavorable ranking in South Africa was 40 percent, in Kenya 23 percent, and in Nigeria 15 percent. 

India Confronts China's Disinformation in Western Indian Ocean

 The Australian Strategic Policy Institute published on 3 May 2023 a commentary titled "India's Battle over Disinformation in the Indian Ocean" by Kate O'Shaughnessy.  

The commentary looks at China's role in shaping public opinion in the Western Indian Ocean and argues that countries like India and Australia need to take stronger measures to correct misinformation and disinformation.