Impact of China's Economic Slowdown on Africa

 The Atlantic Council published in November 2025 a study titled "China's Economic Slowdown and Spillovers to Africa" by Matthew Mingey, Jeremy Smith, and Laura Gormley.  

This report investigates how different projections of China's economic growth and structure over the next five years will affect trade and financial engagement with the African continent and what outcomes will mean for decision-makers.

The best long-term outcome for Africa is likely one in which China accepts the cost of reform to implement slower, but more stable growth.  While countries could previously envision the net benefits of close trading relationships with China in 2030, trade now presents both opportunity and threat: opportunity in the form of cheap imports but complication in the form of persistent trade imbalances and overcapacity in manufacturing.  Under any growth scenario, finance from China's banks and investors will continue to decline as China's domestic financial system evolves.  

The Upcoming China-Africa Summit and State of Economic Relations

 The South China Morning Post published on 18 May 2024 an article titled "Africa Keen for More Development Finance, Despite Economically Bumpy Road Towards FOCAC Summit" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

African and Chinese officials are developing the agenda for the upcoming Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit in Beijing.  The Summit is occurring at a time when China-Africa economic relations are undergoing change.  China's loans to African countries are down sharply while it tries to make up the reduction with foreign direct investment and trade.  

China-Africa Trade, Loans, and FDI 2000-2022

 Boston University's Global Development Center posted on 1 April 2024 a report titled "China-Africa Economic Bulletin, 2024 Edition."

The paper provides useful summaries of China-Africa trade, loans, foreign direct investment, and debt from 2000 through 2022.  China's exports to Africa rose steadily throughout the period while Africa's exports to China peaked in 2012 and have been flat ever since, resulting in significant trade deficits for Africa with China.  

Chinese loans to Africa peaked in 2016 at $28 billion and subsequently fell to about $1 billion in 2021 and 2022.  Africa's debt to China was 13 percent of Africa's total external debt in 2022, which was about the same as debt owed to the World Bank and well under the 28 percent owed to bondholders.  

China's Global Energy Finance Database

 The Global Development Policy Center at Boston University published in November 2023 a policy brief titled "Green Horizons? China's Global Energy Finance in 2022" by Cecilia Springer, Ishana Ratan, Yudong Nathan Liu, and Jia Gu.  

From 2000-2022, the China Development Bank and China Export-Import Bank provided 331 loans totaling $225 billion for 65 public borrowers for energy projects around the world.  2022 marked the second year in a row that China's development finance institutions did not issue new loan commitments for the overseas energy sector.

Despite the decline since 2016 in loan commitments and size, the amount of energy finance China provided surpassed the energy sector lending offered to public entities by any other global lender. The largest share of existing loan commitments by China has been to exploration and extraction projects in the energy sector.  

Power generation received the second largest amount of lending commitments across energy subsectors.  In terms of energy source, fossil fuels received the most support with coal, oil, and gas representing 73 percent of the lending.  Oil was the largest energy source by amount of finance, followed by gas and liquefied natural gas.  

China's commitments to stepping up support for green and low-carbon energy have yet to emerge in the form of development finance.  

China Manages Risk in Its Belt and Road Initiative

 AIDDATA published on 6 November 2023 a commentary titled "Belt and Road Bounces Back, as Beijing Seeks to Future-proof Its Flagship Global Infrastructure Initiative" by Alex Wooley.

This is a commentary on AIDDATA's massive report on China's Belt and Road Initiative.  The report discusses the measures Beijing is taking to manage repayment risk; environmental, social, and governance risk; and reputational risk in its overseas project portfolio.  

China: Moving from Belt and Road to Global Development Initiative

 The Diplomat published on 11 July 2023 an analysis titled "China's Transition from the Belt and Road to the Global Development Initiative" by Lunting Wu, research associate at the Berlin-based Cluster of Excellence "Contestations of the Liberal Script."

The author argues that China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is being eclipsed and may eventually be replaced by the newer Global Development Initiative (GDI).  The author explains the differences between the BRI and GDI and why China has decided to emphasize the latter.  

China's Lending Institutions

 The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) published in October 2021 a publication titled "China's Lending Landscape and Approach to Debt Relief" by Marina Rudyak and Yunnan Chen.  

This is a useful guide to Chinese financial and lending institutions and their approach to debt relief.  It helps remove some of the mystery behind China's development finance program.  

China's Lending Practices in Africa

 The Center for Global Development published in March 2021 a study titled "More Problems More Money? Does China Lend More to African Countries with Higher Credit Risk Levels?" by David Landry and Gailyn Portelance.

The study examines the impact of African countries' creditworthiness levels on Chinese development finance commitments and whether it impacts the development finance they receive from China and the West differently.  It finds that a disproportionate share of Chinese government loan commitments to African countries are made to governments with high risk levels.

China's Changing Approach to Africa

Brookings published in January 2019 a study titled "Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for the Continent in 2019." Pages 105-106 contain a useful viewpoint titled "China's Changing Approach to Africa" by Yun Sun.

The author argues that China has become more focused on commercial and viable projects in Africa and moving away from "resources for infrastructure." China is showing increased interest in identifying its financial contribution as development finance, rather than development assistance. It seems to be moving toward more equity investment by a more diverse group of investors supported by state development finance.

Western and Chinese Development Finance Flows to Africa

The China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies published in November 2018 a paper titled "Comparing the Determinants of Western and Chinese Development Finance Flows to Africa" by David G. Landry.

The paper explores whether various institutional indicators among African countries impact the development finance they can secure from China and western countries. It found that China sends more development finance to countries with worse institutional outcomes than the west. It also finds that bilateral trade relations and UN voting alignment have a stronger impact on China's development finance than that of western countries.

CARI also published a policy brief on the same subject.

China and Africa: Need for Care in Reporting Debt

Africa Check posted recently an explanation of Kenya's external debt titled "China Owns 21.3 Percent of Kenya's External Debt--Not 70 Percent As Reported."

Much has been written recently about Africa's growing debt load and the percentage of that debt held by China. While China is the largest holder of debt or a significant holder in a number of African countries, there is much misinformation on this subject. The only way to analyze this issue is on a country-by-country basis for those countries that publish reliable, detailed, and up-to-date debt information. Some African countries do not make this information publicly available. Using Kenya as an example, Africa Check has done this.

Africa Check found that China holds 21.3 percent of Kenya's total external debt. This qualifies, I believe, as significant but certainly not overwhelming. At the same time, China holds 72 percent of Kenya's bilateral debt. This is an overwhelming percentage, but is not the most useful way to describe a country's debt. Bilateral debt, or state-to-state debt, is only one part of external debt. It excludes debt held by international financial institutions such as the World Bank and African Development Bank. It also excludes commercial debt held by foreign commercial enterprises and banks.

Estimating China's Foreign Aid

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute published in June 2016 a study titled "Estimating China's Foreign Aid II: 2014 Update" by Naohiro Kitano. While it does not focus on Africa, it does offer solid analysis about China's global foreign assistance program.