Impact of China's Economic Slowdown on Africa

 The Atlantic Council published in November 2025 a study titled "China's Economic Slowdown and Spillovers to Africa" by Matthew Mingey, Jeremy Smith, and Laura Gormley.  

This report investigates how different projections of China's economic growth and structure over the next five years will affect trade and financial engagement with the African continent and what outcomes will mean for decision-makers.

The best long-term outcome for Africa is likely one in which China accepts the cost of reform to implement slower, but more stable growth.  While countries could previously envision the net benefits of close trading relationships with China in 2030, trade now presents both opportunity and threat: opportunity in the form of cheap imports but complication in the form of persistent trade imbalances and overcapacity in manufacturing.  Under any growth scenario, finance from China's banks and investors will continue to decline as China's domestic financial system evolves.  

Effectiveness of China's Loans to Africa

 Peking University published in October 2023 a report titled "A Study on the Effectiveness of China's Sovereign Financing in Africa."

From 2000 to 2020, China provided $160 billion in loans for 1116 projects in 49 African countries.  Based on a study of select projects from this list, Peking University concluded that China's loans have a generally positive impact on the economic growth of African nations, and improve the livelihood of the African people.  The loans have had a significant impact on education and improved the hard infrastructure of education facilities and the literacy rate.  The study also shows that loans generate a positive impact on manufacturing job creation, infrastructure development, and globalization.  However, the results indicate a negative impact on agricultural  job creation, which could be explained as the result of moving people from agriculture to industries.

The authors noted that the study was limited by the reliability of the data and discrepancy in the accuracy, time dimension, and the statistical caliber of loan data collected among institutions.

Top Priorities for Africa in 2019

Brookings has just released its "Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for the Continent in 2019" edited by Brahima S. Coulibaly.

It contains the following chapters:

--Bolstering good governance: The imperative of inclusion and efficiency.
--Managing debt and mobilizing resources: A delicate balance to sustain economic growth.
--Harnessing Africa's youth dividend: A new approach for large-scale job creation.
--Fixing fragility: The role of the private sector and local institutions.
--Africa's untapped business potential: Countries, sectors, and strategies.
--Boosting trade and investment: A new agenda for regional and international engagement.

African Economic Outlook 2019

The African Development Bank has just released its African Economic Outlook 2019 in English, French and Portuguese.

After tepid real GDP growth of only 2.1 percent in 2016, Africa's economy recovered with 3.6 percent growth in 2017 and 3.5 percent growth in 2018. Growth is expected to accelerate to 4 percent in 2019 and 4.1 percent in 2020. In 2019, 40 percent of African economies are projected to see growth of at least 5 percent.

Five trade policy actions could potentially bring Africa's total gains in 2019 to 4.5 percent of its GDP:

--eliminating all applied bilateral tariffs in Africa;
--keeping rules of origin simple, flexible, and transparent;
--removing all nontariff barriers on goods and services;
--implementing the World Trade Organizations's Trade Facilitation Agreement to reduce cross border time and transaction costs tied to nontariff measures; and
--negotiating with other developing countries to reduce their tariffs and nontariff barriers by 50 percent.

Africa faces an urgent need to create jobs in higher productivity sectors by developing a strong manufacturing sector. This will not be achieved, however, if constraints to doing business such as poor governance, low institutional quality, and inadequate infrastructure continue to limit firm survival and dynamism. At the current rate of labor force growth, Africa needs to create about 12 million new jobs every year to prevent unemployment from rising.

Will China-style State-led Growth Work in Africa?

CNBC ran a story on 21 May 2018 titled "China-style State-led Growth Won't Work in Africa, Former Nigeria Finance Minister Warns" by Justina Crabtree.

While the lead to the article is somewhat misleading, the former Nigerian finance minister did state that most African countries, especially ones like Nigeria with a strong private sector, have not found success with pure state-led growth. The article goes on to say, however, that China-style economic management seems to be working in countries such as Ethiopia and may work in Mozambique and Rwanda where power is highly centralized.

Why Africa Matters to US National Security

The Atlantic Council published in May 2017 a report titled "Why Africa Matters to US National Security" by Grant T. Harris, CEO of Harris Africa Partners LLC and senior director for Africa in the National Security Council during the Obama administration.

Harris argues that underinvesting in Africa poses a threat to U.S. national security. First, transnational threats from Africa are persistent and real. Second, economic and political needs inevitably draw the United States to Africa. Three, incidences of conflict, humanitarian crisis, and mass atrocities in Africa put significant pressure on the United States to act, in fulfillment of the nation's historic global leadership role.

Ethiopia: Rapid Economic Growth but Poor Access to Basic Services

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 4 May 2017 a policy brief titled "Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's Growth to 2030" by authors from ISS and the Frederick S. Pardee Center at the University of Denver.

The study notes that few African countries have developed as rapidly as Ethiopia over the past 25 years and that economic growth has also been paired with a sizeable expansion of service delivery. Nonetheless, Ethiopians continue to suffer from some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any country in Africa.

Africa Investment Index

Quantum Global published on 7 April 2017 the "Africa Investment Index" that ranks all 54 countries in Africa.

The five highest ranked countries in order are Botswana, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, and Zambia. The five lowest ranked countries from worst to better are Somalia, Eritrea, Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Sierra Leone. Other countries in East Africa and the Horn were ranked as follows: Tanzania (8), Uganda (12), Kenya (15), Ethiopia (21), Sudan (25), and Djibouti (31).

Gold Mining in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Agence Francaise de Developpement and the World Bank published in 2017 a major study titled "Mining in Africa: Are Local Communities Better Off?" by Punam Chuhan-Pole, Andrew L. Dabalen, and Bryan Christopher Land.

The focus of the study is the impact on local communities of gold mining. Most of the research is based on Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Burkina Faso.

China and US Cooperation in Africa

Foreign Affairs published on 3 March 2017 a commentary titled "Where Beijing, Washington, and African Governments Can Work Together from Competition to Cooperation" by Mohamed Ibn Chambas, special representative of the UN Secretary General for West Africa and the Sahel, Princeton N. Lyman, special advisor to the president of USIP, Jianhua Zhong, former Chinese special representative for Africa, and John Goodman, Carter Center.

The commentary focuses on security issues in Africa where the United States and China can cooperate most effectively to the benefit of Africa. You can access the entire article by registering.

Mombasa: A City of Fragile Potential

The Brenthurst Foundation published in 2017 a study titled "Mombasa: A City of Fragile Potential" by Wanjiku Mungai and Saul Musker, both fellows at the Brenthurst Foundation.

The authors conclude that Mombasa faces a range of imposing challenges such as an infrastructure system that is insufficient to meet the demands of a growing population, an unskilled and uneducated workforce and high levels of youth unemployment, the threat of local extremist groups, drug-related violence, and ever-present social tension. While Mombasa's challenges are profound, they are not insurmountable and the city has the potential to drive Kenya's economic growth.

Djibouti's Business Climate (English and French)

The Oxford Business Group published on 15 February 2017 a brief article titled "Djibouti Moves To Improve Business Climate." While noting that Djibouti ranks low on the World Bank's annual business climate index, the article suggests Djibouti is taking steps to improve the situation.

Is Africa the Next Big Economic Success Story?

The National Interest published on 2 February 2017 a commentary titled "Is Africa the Next Big Economic Success Story?" by Eliot Pence, a director at McLarty Associates.

The author argues that Africa is rising and unraveling at the same time, depending on issue and location. Its economic growth is not linear or always positive. He concludes that "whether the continent falls back, or leapfrogs forward, will largely be defined by how well existing institutions develop to harness the ongoing and far reaching changes in demographics, technology, urbanization and political development."

IMF Report on Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook

The International Monetary Fund published on 16 October 2016 its regional economic outlook titled "Sub-Saharan Africa Multispeed Growth."

Lower commodity prices and a less supportive global economic environment are expected to reduce average economic growth in 2016 for Sub-Saharan Africa to one and one-half percent, well below the population growth rate and sharply below the high growth rates of the past 15 years. The IMF projects a modest recovery in 2017 of nearly 3 percent GDP growth.

Most of the non-resource-intensive countries continue to perform well as they benefit from lower oil import prices, an improved business environment, and strong infrastructure investment. In contrast, commodity exporters such as Angola, Nigeria, South Africa, DRC, Ghana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are under severe economic strain.

The Future of Democracy in Africa

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in October 2016 a study titled "The Future of Democracy in Africa" by Jakkie Cilliers, ISS.

Cilliers argues that democracy in much of Africa is constrained from delivering on its development potential for three reasons. First, governance capacity is lacking. Second, the quality of electoral democracy is thin. Third, neopatrimonialism undermines electoral democracy in Africa.

Projections for African Economies in 2016

This is Africa published on 17 October 2016 an article titled "Star Economies Shine Amid Gloomy Africa Outlook: IMF" by Rachel Woods and James Patterson.

Conflict and low commodity prices in 2016 have slowed growth significantly across much of Africa, yet several countries are projected to have a healthy GDP growth rate according to the International Monetary Fund. Leading the list of strong growth is Cote d'Ivoire followed by Tanzania, Senegal, Djibouti, and Ethiopia. The worst performers are projected to be South Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Nigeria, and Chad.

External Risks to Africa's Growth

Brookings published on 27 May 2016 a roundtable summary titled "External Risks to Africa's Growth: Falling Commodity Prices, China's Economic Slowdown, and Rising External Debt" by Amy Copley. As the title indicates, the discussion focused on these three challenges to Africa's growth and concluded that the "Africa rising" narrative is not uniform.

Top Priorities for Africa in 2016

The Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings has just published its "Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for the Continent in 2016" edited by Amadou Sy.  It contains a wealth of charts and graphs and includes the following sections:

--Managing Economic Shocks: African Prospects in the Evolving External Environment
--Sustaining Domestic Growth: Structural Transformation Depends on Jobs, Industry, and SME's
--Supporting Human Development: Triumphs and Challenges on the Continent
--Capitalizing on Urbanization: The Importance of Planning, Infrastructure, and Finance for Africa's Growing Cities
--Maintaining Governance Gains: The National and Regional Agendas
--Expanding African Trade: Creating a Comparative Advantage and Strengthening Regional Partnerships

Economic Growth Declining in Sub-Saharan Africa

The World Bank published in October 2015 Africa's Pulse: An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future.  The World Bank predicts economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably fall from 4.6 percent in 2014 to 3.7 percent in 2015.  The largest single factor in this decline is the fall in African commodity prices, much of which is a result of reduced demand in China following its economic slow down. 

Ethiopia: Positive Report on Economic Growth

This is Africa published on 9 October 2015 an article titled "Ethiopia: Agriculture Investment Curbs Inequality Rises" by Krishnan Nair.  It provides a generally positive account of economic development in Ethiopia.