China-Africa Relations: The Good, the Bad, and the Future

 TurningPoint, an independent, international, online magazine, posted on 29 October 2025 a commentary titled "Shaping Tomorrow: How China and Africa Are Negotiating a Shared Future" by Gaia Guatri, an independent documentarian.  

The author takes a long look in mostly Anglophone Africa at the positive and negative role China is playing.  She concludes that "Chinese capital has brought visible transformation: new railways, ports, and digital platforms; yet it has also incurred opaque debts, scarred landscapes, and fragile dependencies.  With the world's youngest population, Africa stands at a crossroads: it can turn this engagement into a springboard for renewal or slide deeper into a cycle of extraction and imbalance."

China's Economic Influence in Africa

 The IE China Observatory and Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in collaboration with Afrobarometer and the IE Africa Program published in September 2025 a report titled "China's Economic Influence in Africa: A Data Driven Analysis."

The report is based on large-scale survey data from 27 African countries and looks at how ordinary citizens across Africa perceive Chinese economic influence. The report concludes that China's impact is neither uniform nor static.  The findings vary by country, region, demographic, and socioeconomic status.  

Africans Beware of Both Western and Chinese Development Models

The China Global South Project published on 21 February 2025 a commentary titled "Beware False Idols: The Pitfalls of Copy-Paste Development Models" by Felix Brender, project associate at LSE Ideas.   

The author concluded: "If Western economic prescriptions failed Africa, perhaps China's State-led model is the answer.  Hardly. China's rise was predicated on conditions unlikely to be replicated elsewhere: a vast, disciplined labor force, an authoritarian state able to impose sweeping economic reforms, and, crucially, an era in which globalization was expanding, not faltering." 

China's "New" Modernization Model for the Global South

 The Diplomat published on 10 October 2024 a commentary titled "China Pitches Its Model of Modernization to the Global South" by Shruti Jargad, New Delhi-based Centre for Social and Economic Progress.

The author identifies four central tenants of China's "new" modernization model for the Global South.  They are: (1) economic globalization conducted by a strong party-led state; (2) non-interference in domestic political affairs and a focus on training and sharing governance strategies; (3) mutual reinforcement of high-quality development and greater security; and (4) a focus on infrastructure combined with people centric "small and beautiful" development.  

Behind Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping

 World Politics Review published on 3 January 2024 an analysis titled "The Houthis Mean Business in the Red Sea" by Alexander Clarkson, King's College London.  

This is an excellent background piece to ongoing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.  The Houthis have demonstrated ruthless pragmatism.  At the same time, a movement that is willing to risk direct confrontation with the US and UK over a relatively distant conflict between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to prioritize economic concerns over goals that are even more directly embedded in its ideological worldview.  

Effectiveness of China's Loans to Africa

 Peking University published in October 2023 a report titled "A Study on the Effectiveness of China's Sovereign Financing in Africa."

From 2000 to 2020, China provided $160 billion in loans for 1116 projects in 49 African countries.  Based on a study of select projects from this list, Peking University concluded that China's loans have a generally positive impact on the economic growth of African nations, and improve the livelihood of the African people.  The loans have had a significant impact on education and improved the hard infrastructure of education facilities and the literacy rate.  The study also shows that loans generate a positive impact on manufacturing job creation, infrastructure development, and globalization.  However, the results indicate a negative impact on agricultural  job creation, which could be explained as the result of moving people from agriculture to industries.

The authors noted that the study was limited by the reliability of the data and discrepancy in the accuracy, time dimension, and the statistical caliber of loan data collected among institutions.

US-China-Africa Competition or Cooperation?

 The Daily Maverick published on 26 March 2021 an oped titled "US-China-Africa and the Quest for New Global Due Diligence" by Claude Kabemba, executive director of Southern Africa Resource Watch.

The author concluded that the geostrategic competition between China and the US does not foreclose economic convergence, but such cooperation will have to consider the fact that Africa is not a passive actor.  Sustainable cooperation between China and the US will have to respond to Africa's ambitions defined in strategic documents such as Agenda 2063, the Africa Mining Vision, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Panel Discussion on Forum on China-Africa Cooperation

I participated on 7 September 2018 in a one hour panel discussion on China Radio International concerning the 3-4 September Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing. The other panelists were Chen Chenchen, Renmin University, Li Lianxing, Tsinghua University, and Abdullahi Boru Halakhe, policy and security analyst. The discussion covered many of the issues discussed at FOCAC.

The Future of China's RMB in Africa

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 13 August 2018 a commentary titled "Can China Free Africa from Dependency on the Mighty Dollar?" by Peter Fabricius, ISS consultant.

Only 3 to 5 percent of all global foreign exchange transactions are now in China's RMB and about 75 percent are in dollars. The RMB will become a much more important currency in trade and foreign reserves. While Chinese currency swaps will help African and other countries reduce their dependencies on the dollar, they will not end them.

Where Does Africa Fit in Xi Jinping's Worldview?

The Chinafrica Project ran a 32-minute podcast on 21 July 2018 titled "Where Does Africa Fit in Xi Jinping's Worldview?" Hosts Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden discussed the issue with Elizabeth Economy, US Council on Foreign Relations.

Economy, who has recently returned from a visit to China, reported that the prevailing view in China is that the liberal international order is over and China wants to play a key role in shaping the new order. At the same time, Economy found that some Chinese believe China has over reached. An example of this may be the Belt and Road Initiative that now includes West Africa and the polar regions.

The Chinese Automotive Sector in Algeria and Morocco (in French)

The Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Francaise published in 2017 an analysis titled "La Chine dans la mondialisation: L'insertion de la filiere automobile Chinoise en Algerie et au Maroc" by Thierry Pairault, Centre d'etudes sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine.

The study demonstrates that the partnerships signed by Chinese companies in the Algerian and Moroccan automobile sectors are less a matter of integration than the globalization of traditional manufacturers through their Chinese partners.

Africa, China, the West and the Future

The Huffington Post published on 30 August 2017 a commentary titled "Here's How China is Changing Africa's Future" by Cobus van Staden, Witwatersrand University.

As the West, particularly the United States, pulls back from Africa, the author concludes that despite the many misgivings Africans feel about China, they are making a hard-nosed calculation that the continent can profit from a close relationship with China in a way it can't with the West.

China, Zambia and Resource Nationalism

The East Asia Forum published on 31 March 2017 an analysis titled "China and Zambia's Resource Nationalism" by Celine Wang, Public Policy Centre in Kazakhstan.

The author argues that the failure of Zambia's industrial development to deliver greater benefits for the Zambian people has resulted in resource nationalism and anti-Chinese sentiments.

How China Sees the Global Order

The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 9 March 2017 an analysis titled "Expanded Ambitions, Shrinking Achievements: How China Sees the Global Order" by Francois Godement.

The author concludes that Europe should not expect China to replace the US as a dependable bastion of a free-trading and rules-based world order. At the same time, China's political system affords opportunities for sectoral cooperation when it matches Chinese interests such as participation in peacekeeping operations in Mali and South Sudan.

China-Africa Articles in The China Monitor

The Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University published issue 3 of The China Monitor in December 2016. It contains the following articles:

--Which Lodestar to Follow? South African Public Opinion on China and Other International Partners by Floor Keuleers.

--Tanzania's All-weather Friendship with China in the Era of Multipolarity and Globalisation: Towards a Mild Hedging Strategy by Jean-Pierre Cabestan and Jean-Raphael Chaponniere.

--Chinese Investment in Africa: How the New Normal Can Leverage Agenda 2063 for Sustainable Economic Co-operation by Qiaowen Zhang and Anna Kangombe.

--The Rise of BRICS Development Finance Institutions: A Comprehensive Look into the New Development Bank and the Contingency Reserve Arrangement by Adrino Mazenda and Ronney Ncwadi.

--China's Economic Hard Landing Impact on Africa: A Scenario Analysis by Emmanuel Igbinoba and Rodney Hoaeb.

Tanzania-China Relations: Relative Decline in Ties

The Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University published in May 2016 a study titled "Tanzania-China All-Weather Friendship from Socialism to Globalization: A Case of Relative Decline" by Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Hong Kong Baptist University, and Jean-Raphael Chaponniere, Asia Centre in Paris.

The study examines Tanzanian-Chinese relations over the past half century and especially since 2005, highlighting how global political, strategic, and economic shifts have affected and reduced, in relative terms, the importance of this bilateral relationship.

China, Africa, and Industrial Parks

NexGenForum.org recently posted a summary of conference proceedings held 16-18 December 2015 at Tsinghua University in Beijing titled "Industrial Parks and Globalization: Experience Sharing between China and Africa."  It discusses the applicability of China's special economic zones for Africa. 

China in Africa: Not Neo-colonialist but Not Perfect Either

The University of Nottingham posted on 17 December 2015 a commentary titled "'Chinese Neo-Colonialism in Africa': A Bien-Pensant Political Ploy" by Barry Sautman, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Yan Hairong, Hong Kong Polytechnic University.   

The authors argue that China is not neo-colonialist in Africa but that is not to say the global system is just, that Chinese companies, like others, do not exploit African labor and resources or that all is well with Africa-China relations.  It means there should be a focus on root causes of global social and economic inequality, including how the Chinese presence in Africa best fits. 

ESAT Television Program on Democracy

The Washington-based TV station ESAT asked me to join a program focused on democracy.  Assegid Habtewold was the moderator and Getachew Metaferia, political science professor at Morgan State University, was the other participant. 

The wide ranging hour long program covered democracy, freedom, prosperity, Francis Fukuyama and the end of history, Hegel, Marx, globalization, technology, the Arab Spring, revolutionary democracy and developmental democracy in Ethiopia.

New China-Africa Assessment

The Africa Research Institute, an independent non-partisan think tank based in London, published in October 2013 a brief analysis of the current state of China-Africa relations titled "Between Extremes: China and Africa." Among its conclusions were:

• China is engaged in globalization and not colonialism in Africa.
• Aid is a modest component of China's engagement on the continent.
• The "win-win" discourse is misleading.
• China's policy of non-interference is ambiguous and evolving.
• The onus is on African policy makers to guide the China-Africa relationship.