World Bank Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Prospects

 The World Bank Group published in April 2026 "Africa Economic Update: Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa."

The World Bank projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 will average 4.1 percent, the same as in 2025.  Downside risks, however, are emerging due in large part to disruptions caused by the war in Iran.  They include rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices together with tighter financial conditions that are likely to push inflation higher, disrupt economic activity, and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable households which spend a larger share of their income on food and energy.

Ethiopia: Risking War by Seeking Access to the Sea

 The Associated Press published on 9 December 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Embraces Big Projects but Risks Another War by Seeking Access to the Sea" by Fred Harter.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is determined to obtain access to the Red Sea for landlocked Ethiopia.  But this goal risks a miscalculation and the possibility of war with neighboring Eritrea.  

Cutting Foreign Aid Is a Costly Mistake

 The Washington Post published on 17 June 2025 a commentary titled "The Retreat from Aid Is a Costly Mistake" by Eduardo Porter.

While the Trump administration has thrown foreign aid into the woodchipper, other Western countries including the UK, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden have cut development assistance budgets.  Their cuts have not been as dramatic as the US dismantlement of USAID, but the author explains why these changes are a mistake.   

South Sudan's Economy in Severe Crisis

 The World Bank published in March 2025 a major report titled "South Sudan Economic Monitor: A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis."

South Sudan's socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks.  This dire situation is the result of: (1) nascent institutions and weak governance; (2) persistent mismanagement of the country's abundant natural capital, namely oil, and (3) recurrent community-level conflicts and violence that led to nationwide armed conflict in 2016 and localized ongoing conflict after the 2018 peace agreement.

South Sudan is now facing a severe crisis.  The economy is projected to contract by 30 percent in fiscal year 2024/2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of negative growth.  In fiscal year 2025, GDP per capita is estimated to decline to around half of the fiscal year 2020 levels.

Ethiopia: Will Monetary Reform Save the Economy?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 5 November 2024 a commentary titled "Now the Birr Floats, Will Ethiopia Sink or Swim?" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst and former advisor to the president of Somali Region.  

Last July, Ethiopia adopted a market-determined exchange rate, lifted most current account restrictions, and modernized its monetary policy framework in order to pave the way for International Monetary Fund and World Bank bailouts.

Ethiopia has regressed from two decades of economic and social progress and faces growing economic challenges.  The recent economic policy reform has witnessed a plummeting depreciation of the currency and strong inflationary pressure.  The author concludes that IMF and donor financing are unlikely to stabilize an economy plagued by conflict, poor management, and rapid currency depreciation.  

Somalia: Limitations of Social Assistance

 The Institute of Development Studies Bulletin published on 28 October 2024 a study titled "Can Social Assistance Strengthen the Social Contract in Somalia?" by Julie Lawson McDowall and Ruby D. Khan.

The study challenges the view that externally funded and designed social assistance programming in Somalia might help renew the social contract between the government and Somali nationals.  For many living outside Mogadishu, the federal government is irrelevant or predatory, and other local forms of authority are more important with existing elite bargains likely to reinforce existing societal fractures.  On the other hand, social assistance has the potential to make a small contribution if there is thoughtful design, greater inclusion, and long-term donor commitment.  

China-Africa Symposium Highlights Left-wing Cold War Terminology

 The Review of African Political Economy posted on 24 July 2024 a commentary titled "Africa and China: Counter-Hegemonic Narratives --An Introduction" by Ying Chen and Corinna Mullin.

This piece is a summary of a symposium that took place in December 2023 at The New School titled "The African Continent and China: Counter-Hegemonic Narratives."  It assesses "the reductionist, orientalist and often racist depictions that dominate mainstream media and scholarly spaces on China-Africa relations."  It attributes African underdevelopment to "policies imposed by western dominated multilateral institutions like the IMF and World Bank under the neoliberal 'Washington Consensus'."

Comment:  Much of the jargon used in the symposium took me back to my African study days in the 1960s and 1970s when Cold War terminology was the predominate rhetoric.  The summary suggests that the presentations were quick to praise China's positive activities in Africa and gloss over or even ignore the negative ones.  While it is useful to assess accurately China's limited role in Africa's debt crisis, was there any discussion of China's mercantilist trade policy toward the continent where it sells almost entirely finished goods and buys almost exclusively natural resources?  And in recent years, China has consistently had a large trade surplus!

After reading this summary, it is all smiles in Beijing, and Moscow.  

What Africa Can Learn from China's Rise

 Foreign Policy published on 12 June 2024 an analysis titled "What Africa Can Learn from China's Rise" by Howard W. French.

The author argues that much of China's rise and ability to overcome poverty is due to its focus on education and sustained investment in human infrastructure.  He urges African countries learn from this example.  

Regional Development Needed in Horn of Africa

 Brookings published on 15 November 2022 a paper titled "Tackling Fragility and Promoting Integration in the Horn of Africa through 'Development Diplomacy'" by Vijay Pillai and Miguel de Corral, both with the World Bank.  

A new development approach is needed for the Horn of Africa that focuses on regional solutions and policy reforms.  The authors discuss the merits of the Horn of Africa Initiative that tries to achieve these goals.  

South African Think Tank Says Both West and China Essential for African Development

 South Africa's Institute for Security Studies/African Futures published on 20 October 2022 a study titled "The West and China in Africa's Development Future" by Jakkie Cilliers.  

The study concludes that for Africa to develop and reduce poverty, it needs China, the EU and the US.  It cannot choose one above the other.  To avoid a new era of bipolarity, the West and China need to find a way to reset relations.  

African Economic Outlook 2022

 The African Development Bank published on 25 May 2022 its massive African Economic Outlook 2022.

This document contains a wealth of information on African economies, including the impact of COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and climate change.  

China's Anti-poverty Successes: Lessons for Africa?

 The University of Witwatersrand published on 19 April 2022 a commentary titled "China's Successes in Anti-poverty and Development Drives: Lessons for the 21st Century Sub-Saharan Africa" by Olusoji Samuel Carnegie, Obafemi Awolowo University.

The article argues that if China can eliminate extreme poverty through attainment of meaningful economic development, Africa can also achieve the same feat by drawing necessary lessons from the Chinese experience.  It examines the issues of poverty and development in the context of Africa's relationship with China.  It addresses the question of how the Chinese examples can positively influence anti-poverty efforts and assist in the accomplishment of development in the 21st century.

Putin's War Will Harm Many African Countries

 The Voice of America published on 19 March 2022 an article titled "Ukraine War to Compound Hunger, Poverty in Africa, Experts Say" by Mohammed Yusuf.

At least 25 African countries import a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine and 15 import more than half from these two countries.  Wheat prices have already risen sharply.  The UN's International Fund for Agricultural Development warns that the war will increase global hunger and poverty.

Corruption in South Sudan's Oil Sector

 The Africa Report published on 4 February 2022 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Oil Sector Needs to Become More Transparent" by Alan Boswell.  

The author argues that international donors and the International Monetary Fund need to put more pressure on South Sudan officials to account for oil revenue that they routinely siphon off for their own purposes.

Argument to Keep Ethiopia in AGOA

 Foreign Policy published on 13 October 2021 a commentary titled "Don't Remove Ethiopia's AGOA Trade Privileges" by Mamo Mihretu, senior policy adviser to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The author argues that the Biden administration should not remove Ethiopia from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act provisions as this would only worsen the condition of Ethiopians who have no connection to the Tigray conflict.

Highlighting Democracy in Somaliland

 The Royal United Services Institute published on 4 June 2021 a report titled "Spotlighting an African Rarity: A Poor but Democratic Nation" by Greg Mills, John Githongo, John Steenhuisen, Abbasali Haji, Chipokota Mwanawasa, and Tendai Biti.

The report concludes that Somaliland's progress should shame those much richer African countries where political incumbents are rolling back democracy because it threatens their power and financial privilege.  

China-US Competition in Africa

 The Foreign Policy Association as part of Great Decisions has posted a 26 minute podcast dated 20 January 2021 titled "Competing Interests: The U.S. and China in Africa."

This is a wide ranging account of U.S. and China policy in Africa with a focus on how the two powers interacted in Africa during the final months of the Trump administration.

Africa Debt, China, and COVID-19

The World Economic Forum published on 12 May 2020 an analysis titled "How COVID-19 Will Change China and Africa's Economic Relationship" by Lauren Johnston, SOAS China Institute.

China normally renegotiates loans bilaterally and usually extends the repayment period while eschewing debt cancellation except in the case of interest free loans to the poorest countries. The author argues that debt write-off may be necessary if both China and Africa want to benefit from the post-coronavirus global economy.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia's Food Security

The Center of Excellence International Consult in Addis Ababa published in March 2020 a report titled "The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Security in Ethiopia" by Messay Mulugeta, Addis Ababa University.

Poverty and food insecurity were significant challenges in Ethiopia before COVID-19, which will only aggravate the situation unless the government and individuals take steps to mitigate the problem.

Impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia's Urban Poor

Ethiopia Insight posted on 4 May 2020 a story titled "Amid Lockdown Fears, COVID-19 Threatens Ethiopia's Urban Poor" by Yared Tsegaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter based in Addis Ababa.

Urban unemployment in Ethiopia was 19 percent before COVID-19. The author reports that the impact of COVID-19 on the urban poor will be especially devastating.