China's Economic Transition and Relations with Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in May 2024 an analysis titled "How Is China 's Economic Transition Affecting Its Relations with Africa?" by Zainab Usman and Tang Xiaoyang.

The analysis considers the impact of China's slowing economic growth on its trade, investment, monetary, loan, and soft power ties with Africa.  It also takes into account the actions of Africa's other partners, especially the United States.  

Protests in Sudan Play into Growing Regional Tensions

World Politics Review published on 31 January 2018 an analysis titled "Is Bashir Finally Facing a Moment of Reckoning in Sudan?" by Richard Downie, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The author suggests that following decades of economic misrule in Sudan, a moment of reckoning appears to be approaching. A convergence of social, economic and diplomatic unrest has sent Sudan into a state of anxiety, straining and raising the prospect of new domestic turmoil. This situation is occurring as there is growing regional tension involving Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Turkey, and the Gulf States.

African Economic Outlook 2018

The African Development Bank has just released its "African Economic Outlook 2018."

Real output growth in Africa is estimated to have reached 3.6 percent in 2017, up from 2.2 percent in 2016, and to accelerate to 4.1 percent in 2018 and 2019. The recovery in growth has been faster than envisaged, especially among non-resource-intensive economies. Debt levels for most countries have not yet breached the traditional threshold indicators. They have actually declined in nine African countries. But Africa's solid growth rates have not been accompanied by high job growth rates. The lack of job growth has retarded poverty reduction. A priority for African governments is to encourage a shift toward labor-absorbing growth paths, especially modernizing the agricultural sector, which employs most of the population and is typically the main step toward industrialization.

The study includes the following sections:

--Africa's macroeconomic performance and prospects.
--Growth, jobs, and poverty in Africa.
--Africa's infrastructure: great potential but little impact on inclusive growth.
--Financing Africa's infrastructure: new strategies, mechanisms, and instruments.

World Bank Economic Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa

The World Bank published in January 2018 its "Global Economic Prospects: Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long?"

The section on Sub-Saharan Africa reports that growth rebounded to 2.4 percent in 2017 after slipping to 1.3 percent in 2016. Growth in the region is projected to rise to 3.2 percent in 2018 and to 3.5 percent in 2019, on the back of firming commodity prices and gradually strengthening domestic demand. Major oil/mineral economies in Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa will experience modest improvement. Non-resource intensive countries are expected to expand at a solid pace, helped by robust investment growth. Cote d'Ivoire is forecast to expand by 7.2 percent, Senegal by 6.9 percent, Ethiopia by 8.2 percent, and Tanzania by 6.8 percent.

Growth Outlook for Africa Down but Fine for Some

Ernst and Young published in December 2016 its Africa Attractiveness Year End Update. 2016 has been the worst year for average economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa in over 20 years, mainly due to challenging conditions in the three largest economies: Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa. A number of other economies, however, including Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and Egypt have done well and are expected to sustain high growth rates over the next five years.

IMF Report on Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook

The International Monetary Fund published on 16 October 2016 its regional economic outlook titled "Sub-Saharan Africa Multispeed Growth."

Lower commodity prices and a less supportive global economic environment are expected to reduce average economic growth in 2016 for Sub-Saharan Africa to one and one-half percent, well below the population growth rate and sharply below the high growth rates of the past 15 years. The IMF projects a modest recovery in 2017 of nearly 3 percent GDP growth.

Most of the non-resource-intensive countries continue to perform well as they benefit from lower oil import prices, an improved business environment, and strong infrastructure investment. In contrast, commodity exporters such as Angola, Nigeria, South Africa, DRC, Ghana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are under severe economic strain.

Rise of China's Renminbi in Africa

The Centre for Chinese Studies (CCS) at Stellenbosch University published on 19 September 2016 a commentary titled "The Internationalisation of Renminbi in an African Context" by Yi Ren Thng, visiting scholar at CCS.

The RMB has become increasingly important in African trade settlements with China, but the author suggests there are challenges for the RMB to move beyond trade settlement.

IMF Evaluates Economy of Sub-Saharan Africa

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in April 2016 its "Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa: Time for a Policy Reset."

It concludes that economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has weakened markedly, but, as usual, with a large variation in country circumstances. Growth for the region as a whole fell to 3 and one-half percent in 2015, the lowest level in 15 years, and is set to decelerate further in 2016 to 3 percent. The IMF believes that the medium-term growth prospects for SSA remain favorable. However, to realize this potential, a substantial policy reset is critical in many areas.

China's Engagement with Africa: From Natural Resources to Human Resources

Brookings just published and put on-line a book titled "China's Engagement with Africa: From Natural Resources to Human Resources" by David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The book contains chapters on trade between China and Africa, China's direct investment in Africa, China's role in funding African infrastructure, and Chinese workers and labor issues in Africa.

China and the World

The Forum for discussing international affairs and economics published a complete issue in the summer of 2012 titled "China: Worldview and Ambitions, Security Policy, The Exchange Rate Conundrum." It contains the piece I did on "China's Security Policy in Africa and the Western Indian Ocean" posted under 7 June below.

The special issues includes a number of articles that may interest you such as "The Growing Potency of the Sino-Indian Rivalry" by Harsh Pant; "Chinese Foreign Policy - Interpreting the Recent War of Words" by Carla P. Freeman; and "The Challenge of US-China Relations" by Ali Wyne.

Click here to access the entire issue.