South Africa's Institute for Security Studies published on 26 June 2024 an analysis titled "Russia's Growing Influence in Africa Calls for More Balanced Partnerships" by Denys Reva.
Russia's efforts to expand its influence in Africa have fallen short for 3 reasons. First, its trade volume with Africa and especially its imports from Africa remain minimal. Second, Ukraine's success in ending Russia's naval blockade in the Black Sea eased export restrictions on grain in 2023. Third, the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit resulted in most African states opting for non-alignment. Russia's greatest success in Africa comes from its bilateral security agreements, including training and arms transfers.
