Russia Steps Up Diplomatic Blitz in Africa

 Critical Threats published on 6 June 2024 an analysis titled "Russian Diplomatic Blitz Advances the Kremlin's Strategic Aims in Africa" by Liam Karr.

High-level Russian officials are meeting with Russian partners across Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin's strategic goals of projecting greater Russian influence to supplant the West and better positioning Russia for prolonged confrontation with the West.

Russia is trying to create a pro-Russian bloc that advances its military, economic, and political goals in Africa in the Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger).  It is pursuing this program with very modest economic resources and vulnerabilities that eventually risk backfiring.  

Africa Is No Longer a Major Source for Chinese Crude Oil Imports

 Worldstopexports.com recently posted an article titled "Top 15 Crude Oil Suppliers to China" by Daniel Workman.

In 2023, 15 crude exporters accounted for 89 percent of China's total crude imports.  The top supplier was Russia ($94 billion or 18.3 percent of China's imports in 2023), followed by Saudi Arabia ($55 billion or 10.7 percent), and Malaysia ($45.5 billion or 8.8 percent).  

The only African country among the top 15 was Angola at number 12 ($18.8 billion or 3.7 percent).  Even the United States surpassed Angola as a supplier of crude to China at number 9 ($22.4 billion or 4.3 percent).  Angolan exports of crude to China in 2023 slipped 18.5 percent compared with 2022.  China imported small amounts of crude from a few other African countries such as Congo Brazzaville.  This is a sharp reversal of the situation earlier this century when briefly almost one-third of China's crude oil imports originated in Africa. 

Although Iran was not included on the list of China's 15 top crude suppliers in 2023, it is estimated to have provided about 10 percent of the country's total imports.  Small independent Chinese refiners known as "teapots" purchased at deep discount about 90 percent of Iran's crude destined for China.  In order to avoid sanctions, this crude was passed off as originating in Malaysia or the UAE.  For an account of Iranian exports to China, see "Exclusive: Iran's Oil Trade with China Stalls as Tehran Demands Higher Prices." 

Comment:  This significant reduction in China's crude oil imports from Africa may tend to diminish Beijing's strategic interest in the continent, although it continues to rely heavily on the importation of certain critical minerals such as cobalt, tantalum, and manganese.  In addition, sourcing crude oil imports is a dynamic process with a history of quick movement in and out of markets.  As the global political and economic situation evolves, Africa may one day return to favor as a major source of crude for China.    

Africa and World Happiness Report 2024

 The massive World Happiness Report 2024 is now available online, published in partnership with Gallup, the Oxford Wellbeing Research Centre, The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, and the World Happiness Report's editorial board.  The six key variables in the study are GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom, generosity, and corruption.  

The overall global happiness 2021-2023 scores are based on individuals' own assessments of their lives, in particular their answers to the Cantril ladder life-evaluation question in the Gallup World Poll. They are not based on any index of the six key variables in the study.  See pages 14-17 of the report. 

Out of 143 countries in the study, the five highest ranked African countries are war-torn Libya (66)!!, Mauritius (70), South Africa (83), Algeria (85), and Congo Brazzaville (89).  The five lowest ranked African countries are Lesotho (141), Sierra Leone (140), Congo Kinshasa (139), Zimbabwe (138), and Botswana (137).  For purposes of comparison, the United States ranked 23 and China 60.

West African Crude Shifts from China and India to Other Nations

 S&P Global published on 21 April 2023 an article titled "Priced Out by Russian Oil, African Producers Find New Customers Post-war."

West African crude producers, especially Nigeria, Angola, and Congo-Brazzaville, have been forced to find new markets for their oil since the Ukraine war because China and India are now buying cheap Russian crude.  As a result, more West African crude is going to North America, Netherlands, Singapore, and the UK.  Russia has become the top crude supplier to China and India.  West African crude now accounts for only 9 percent of China's imported oil.  

Africa as a Supplier of China's Oil

 Israel Defense posted on 10 November 2020 an article titled "The African Oil Markets of the People's Republic of China and the Continuous Daily Needs for Crude Oil" by Giancarlo Elia Valori.  

In 2019, Africa supplied only 18 percent of China's imported crude oil, a sharp drop from ten years ago.  Angola supplied half of the African total, Congo Brazzaville 2 percent, Libya 2 percent, and the rest of Africa 5 percent.  The Middle East supplied 44 percent of China's imported crude.  

While Africa remains an important source of China's imported crude, it is steadily dropping in significance compared to the Middle East, Russia, and even Western Hemisphere.    

French and Chinese Business Cooperation in Africa

 The China Africa Research Initiative just published a policy brief titled "French and Chinese Business Cooperation in Africa" by Thierry Pairault.  

The author identifies projects in French-speaking Africa built by Chinese contractors and managed and supervised by French engineering firms.  He concludes that the future of Sino-Franco cooperation lies with the business sector and individual firms, not the two governments.   

Chinese Architecture Is Changing Africa

Archinect published on 18 February 2020 a feature story titled "Sino-African Architecture: A Look at the Rise of Chinese-built Projects Across the African Continent" by Hannah Wood, an architect based in Tanzania.

The author looks at the architecture of six major Chinese construction projects in Africa: African Union convention center in Ethiopia, parliament buildings in Zimbabwe and Congo-Brazzaville, international airport in Zambia, a housing project in Kenya, and the Dar es Salaam University library in Tanzania.

Coronavirus Is Beginning to Affect China's Trade with Africa

The South China Morning Post published on 5 February 2020 an article titled "From Angola to Zambia, China's African Partners Brace for Coronavirus Blow to Trade" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Chinese demand underpins the economies of resource-rich African countries such as Angola, Zambia, Congo Brazzaville and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The economic slowdown in China due to coronavirus is beginning to play out in these countries.

Chinese and Italian Companies Agree on Study to Refill Lake Chad

China's People's Daily Online published on 21 August 2017 an article titled "Chinese, Italian Firms Reach Deal to Refill Fast-shrinking Lake Chad" by Kimeng Hilton Ndukong, Cameroon Tribune.

The agreement between PowerChina and Italy's Bonifica Spa is a feasibility study to transfer 100 billion cubic meters of water annually from the Congo River in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2,500 kilometers to replenish fast-shrinking Lake Chad.

Communist Party of China Convenes with African Parties in Ethiopia

China's Global Times published on 4 February 2015 an article titled "Political Parties in Africa, China Convene Seminar to Share Development Experience."  Representatives from the Communist Party of China (CPC) met in Addis Ababa with representatives from political parties in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Namibia, Tanzania, Congo Brazzaville, DRC, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Sudan, and Uganda.  The representative of the Chinese delegation said the CPC carries out various forms of exchanges with over 80 political parties in more than 40 African countries. 

Chinese-owned Businesses in Congo Brazzaville

Scientific Research published in August 2013 a highly technical article titled "Determinants of Entrepreneurship Success: An Examination of Chinese-Owned Businesses in Congo Brazzaville" by Edwige Kamitewoko, Marien Ngouabi University in Brazzaville.

The study identified factors that enable Chinese entrepreneurs to succeed in Congo Brazzaville. The study sampled 200 respondents and modeled their responses using logistic regression. The findings showed the key factors in success to be guanxi (networking), education, and experience in trade and finance.