Iranian President Revives Africa Ties

 The Stimson Center posted on 26 July 2023 an analysis titled "Raisi Goes to Africa in Search of Allies for Iran" by Eric Lob, Florida International University.  

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's foreign minister, and business leaders visited Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe in mid-July, the first Iranian presidential visit to Africa in 10 years.  The purpose is to expand Iran's economic and trade ties and explore closer political links. 

Comments to Aljazeera on Situation in Ethiopia

Aljazeera asked me to comment 15 November 2020 on the situation in Ethiopia for its news program.  The focus of the interview was the regional implications of the worsening conflict.   

China Gets in Middle of Kenya-Djibouti Fight for UN Security Council Seat

Pass Blue posted on 24 January 2020 an article titled "As Kenya and Djibouti Fight Over a UN Security Council Seat, China Pops Up" by Maurizio Guerrero.

African countries hold three rotating seats on the UN Security Council. One of the seats is up for election for the 2021-2022 period. Normally, the African Union proposes a consensus African candidate that is then agreed to by two-thirds of UN General Assembly members. Kenya was the consensus African Union candidate but Djibouti cried foul and continued to pursue the seat.

China implied publicly on different occasions that it would support both Kenya and Djibouti. It has important interests in both countries. This confusion caused concern in Kenya and Djibouti, prompting Beijing to declare neutrality in the dispute and saying it must be resolved in Africa.

US Threatens South Sudan with Sanctions

Foreign Policy published on 24 February 2015 a short piece titled "U.S. Threatens South Sudan with Sanctions . . . Again" by Colum Lynch. The US circulated a draft resolution in the UN Security Council that establishes a sanctions committee and lays the groundwork for sanctions.  Washington is pursuing an incremental approach designed to gradually ratchet up pressure on the opposing parties in South Sudan.

UN-African Union Cooperation in Peace Operations

The International Peace Institute published in  February 2015 a study titled "Saving Strangers and Neighbors: Advancing UN-AU Cooperation on Peace Operations" by Paul D. Williams, professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, and Solomon Ayele Dersso, head of the Peace and Security Council Report at the Institute for Security Studies and professor at Addis Ababa University.

The report examines how the relationship between the UN and the African Union can be improved to deliver more effective peace operations.  It draws heavily on past experience with peace operations in Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan.  It suggests that the partnership in general and both institutions in particular still face significant challenges and institutional differences that reduce their ability to deploy effective peace operations.

South Sudan: Internal US Debate on Arms Embargo

Foreign Policy published on 26 January 2015 an article titled "Mediating Mass Murder: Susan Rice Has Stalled the American Push for an Arms Embargo in South Sudan" by Colum Lynch.  The piece argues that President Obama's National Security Adviser, Susan Rice, is resisting the imposition of an arms embargo on South Sudan while U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, and U.S. ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, favor an embargo. 

How to Save South Sudan

Writing in Foreign Policy on 15 December 2014, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said in a commentary titled "How to Save South Sudan" that responsibility for preventing any new escalation and ending the tragedy in South Sudan lies squarely with President Salva Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar.

UN Security Council Resolution on Somalia

The UN Security Council adopted on 6 March 2012 a resolution on Somalia that lays out the future relationship of the international community with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).  The resolution dissolves the UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) and establishes a UN mission located in Mogadishu.  It renews the deployment of AMISOM until 6 March 2014 and demands the protection of civilians.  It lifts the arms embargo on the FGS while keeping it in force for all non-state actors and forces not under the control and jurisdiction of the FGS.  Finally, it underscores the UN's concern with the violations of the Somali and UN ban on charcoal exports.

Mohamud Uluso wrote a brief and supportive analysis of the resolution titled "UN Resolution 2093 Endorses State Building Mission for Somalia" that appeared in Pambazuka News on 13 March 2013. 

UN Security Council and Sudan Peace Process

The Enough Project released on 7 November 2012 a brief paper calling for more engagement by the UN Security Council in the Sudan peace process.

Click here to read the recommendations.

UN Report on Darfur

The UN Panel of Experts on Sudan released its most recent report on Darfur under cover of a letter dated 24 January 2012. The upbeat report concludes that "the overall situation in Darfur remains ambivalent and complex, however, there has been a clear and relatively positive change compared to the situation in the previous years." The report adds that "there has also been a relative improvement in the overall security situation."

Click here to read the entire report.

This official UN report has resulted in a controversy at UN headquarters. A second unofficial report is circulating that was written by three of the original members of the UN's Panel of Experts. These three experts (Mike Lewis of the UK, Claudio Gramizzi of Italy and Jerome Tubiana of France) resigned after the UN Under Secretary for Political Affairs declined to take their views seriously. The unofficial report argues that the Darfur crisis is worsening with new incidents of ethnic cleansing, arms deliveries and aerial bombing. It also details the role of China, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in the supply of arms. Click here to read an account by Africa Confidential that broke the story.

Click here to read the entire report of the three former experts. It is a very different account of the situation in Darfur.

China-Libya relations

The Mandarin service of the Voice of America asked me to comment on China’s current relationship with Libya.

EXPO 2010, Shanghai, China. Flickr/Dv Yang.

I explained that prior to the beginning of conflict, China had contracts for $18 billion worth of projects, mostly construction, and 36,000 workers in Libya. In addition, China has become a major importer of Libyan oil.

All of this came to a halt with the outbreak of conflict.

China evacuated its 36,000 workers and has taken significant financial losses on its contracts.

Although China abstained in the UN Security Council on the resolution that allowed NATO to establish a no-fly zone, China has been publicly critical of the way NATO has implemented the policy.

Initially, China had no contact with the Libyan rebels and maintained its embassy in Tripoli. Probably concluding that Qadhafi’s time in power is nearing an end, China initiated contact with the leader of the rebels beginning early in June. That contact continues as China prepares for the day when it may have to deal with a new government in Libya.

The report follows in Mandarin only.

Two major reports on Darfur, one by a UN panel of experts and the other by the African Union high-level panel

The Panel of Experts on Sudan established by the UN Security Council released in October 2009 its report on the situation in Darfur. You can access the report in PDF format here. Although it is highly critical of the Sudanese Armed Forces, it states that all parties to the conflict continue to fail to meet their affirmative obligations under international and human rights law. Among the armed groups opposing the government in Darfur, the Justice and Equality Movement is the most active violator of the arms embargo. The expert report singles out the government of Sudan for failing to account for its efforts to disarm and control its various auxiliary and formerly affiliated forces. The report also details the origin of military equipment equipment in the conflict, highlighting the role of China. The lengthy report makes no mention that genocide is occurring in Darfur, a charge that the U.S. government continues to allege without citing recent evidence to support the charge. The government of Sudan reacted harshly to the report in spite of the fact that it spreads blame widely. Sudan's U.N. Ambassador Abdel-Mahmoud Abdel-Haleem said Khartoum "will demand that the Security Council terminate the panel's mandate" and added that the UN experts are just "representatives of Western intelligence agencies." For an account of the Sudanese reaction see a November 9, 2009 report in the Sudan Tribune. The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council constituted the AU High-Level Panel on Darfur (AUPD) to examine peace, justice, accountability, impunity and reconciliation in Darfur. Chaired by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, this 29 October 2009 report takes a different approach than the one done by the UN panel of experts. Its scope is broader and it emphasizes the background causes of the conflict, especially competition for land and access to its resources. It discusses the polarizing impact of the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for President Omar Al-Bashir in 2009. It gives considerable attention to the need to strengthen Sudan's national legal system, to deal appropriately with the perpetrators of the violations and to make reparations to the victims inside Sudan. Much of the report is devoted to recommendations. You can access it in PDF format here.

New Heritage Foundation study on piracy

I call to your attention another useful report that deals with Somali piracy titled "Maritime Security: Fighting Piracy in the Gulf of Aden and Beyond," published by the Heritage Foundation on June 24, 2009. You can access the report (in PDF format) here. It is unfortunate that this otherwise excellent study released in mid-2009 only has statistical data through 2007. I also found a couple of the recommendations a little strange. For example, the report calls for "expanding the Navy's stated goal of raising its number of ships from 277 to 313 (the majority of the additional 36 should be nuclear powered, including additional nuclear-powered submarines) and focusing Navy operations more on sea control and assured access, less on maritime engagement and security missions." I am not sure I see much of a connection between reducing piracy and adding more nuclear-powered submarines to the U.S. fleet. On the other hand, shifting the U.S. military contribution from the Navy to the Coast Guard and expanding the Coast Guard, as the report recommends, makes a lot of sense. The report correctly urges that the international community focus on helping Somalis to reestablish governance. On the other hand, the recommendation that the United States should support a "grassroots model" of governance in Somalia is a little too facile. The report is on target when it urges the United States to support the UN Security Council in demanding international respect for Somalia's Exclusive Economic Zone and related conventions that bar the dumping of toxic wastes.

Interview with Defense News on China in Africa

Wendell Minnick interviewed me for his piece "China Comes to Africa" in Defense News (link to article). Here are the quotes:

Perhaps the most visible controversy over China's surging role came last April, when a Chinese ship bearing small arms for Zimbabwe was refused entry to South African ports. The cargo list included ammunition for AK-47 assault rifles, 1,500 40mm rockets, and 2,500 60mm and 81mm mortar shells.. "China received a black eye on this one," said David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia. "Chinese military equipment is popular in Africa because it is usually much cheaper than Western counterpart equipment."

And later on:

"China has far more peacekeepers in Africa than any other permanent member of the U.N. Security Council," said Shinn, an Africa affairs specialist with the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, Washington. "By comparison, the U.S. had 42 military personnel assigned to U.N. peacekeeping operations in Africa as of November 2008." ..."China has a long history of providing military assistance, selling arms and offering military training to African countries" going back to the 1960s, Shinn said. "In recent years, Chinese arms sales and grants have been higher than those of the U.S." to Africa.

Three recent interviews on U.S. policy in Africa and Somali pirates

Over the last few days, I was interviewed several times by Voice of America and BBC radio on issues relating to Africa, particularly Somalia. On December 15, I spoke with VOA's Joe de Capua and took a look ahead to the Obama Administration's policies on Africa and what might be carried over from the Bush Administration. I suggested there will be an approach to countering terrorism that relies more on solving root causes and less on a military response. I am told the interview will appear after New Years Day. I also spoke with BBC on the 16th and with VOA radio yesterday on the situation in Somalia. In both cases, I emphasized that the piracy problem will not be completely solved until there is a national government in Somalia that is widely accepted by the Somali people. I expressed doubt that much use will be made of the UN Security Council resolution that permits the international community to pursue pirates on land and suggested some tougher measures for dealing with pirates in the open seas. I also noted that it is important to end illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping in Somali waters by western and Asian ships. UPDATE: The interview with VOA's William Eagle appears here under the heading "Analyst Doubts Effectiveness of UN Crack Down on Somali Pirates."