Mali: French Forces Pushed Out and Russian Forces Struggling

 Foreign Policy published on 10 September 2024 an article titled "How Foreign Intervention Failed Mali" by John A. Lechner, Sergey Eledinov, and Adam Sandor.  

The article explains how first the French and now the Russian mercenary force in Mali failed to defeat Tuareg separatists.

The Evolution of Africa's Militant Islamic Groups

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 9 August 2022 an analysis titled "Sahel and Somalia Drive Rise in Africa's Militant Islamist Group Violence."

This study provides an infomap that identifies the location of attacks in Africa by militant Islamist groups from 2013 through 2022.  In 2021 and 2022, most of the attacks occurred in Somalia, Kenya, Mozambique, Chad, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Cote d'Ivoire.  

Interview with Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command Africa

The February 2020 edition of the CTC Sentinel has an interview with Brigadier General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command Africa.

The interview covers competition with China and Russia, counterterrorism in Somalia, West Africa, the Sahel, Mozambique, Central African Republic, and U.S. partners in counterterrorism.

Beyond Counterterrorism: Defeating the Salafi-Jihadi Movement

The American Enterprise Institute published in October 2019 a study titled "Beyond Counterterrorism: Defeating the Salafi-Jihadi Movement" by Katherine Zimmerman.

This detailed study includes two especially useful maps on pages 47-48 that identify the global networks across Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia of both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Poverty and Terrorism in Africa

The summer/fall 2016 issue of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published my article titled "Poverty and Terrorism in Africa: The Debate Continues." It is only available by subscription or through a library.

My bottom line conclusion is that poverty is not and never has been the cause of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, it is one of a dozen or more factors that have contributed to an environment that has enabled terrorist organizations such as al-Shabaab and Boko Haram to draw support.

China Faces Terrorism in Africa

The OCP Policy Center, a Moroccan think tank, published on 16 March 2016 a study titled "China Faced with the Proliferation of the Terrorist Phenomenon in Africa" by Abdelhak Bassou.

The study summarizes the terrorist threat in Africa, the impact it has had on China, and what China is likely to do to counter the threat.

Violent Extremism in Africa

Afrobarometer published in June 2016 a study titled "Violent Extremism in Africa: Public Opinion from the Sahel, Lake Chad, and the Horn" by Stephen Buchanan-Clarke and Rorisang Lekalake.

The paper analyzes new opinion data from three of Sub-Saharan Africa's regional hotspots of terrorist and extremist activity: Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin; Ansar Dine, AQIM, and Mourabitoun in the Sahel; and al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa. The study contains useful public opinion data on a variety of related issues.

VOA Encounter Interview on African Issues

Voice of America's Encounter program with Carol Castiel ran on 3 June 2016 a half hour program on current issues in Africa. The guests were Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council and myself. The primary issues discussed were South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia, Boko Haram, and the conviction of former Chadian President Hissene Habre.

Chinese Peacekeeper Killed in Mali Attack

The Diplomat published on 2 June 2016 a report titled "Chinese Peacekeeper Killed in Mali Attack" by Shannon Tiezzi. One Chinese peacekeeper was killed and four were injured during an attack, presumably by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in Gao, Mali at the camp of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSMA). Sixty peacekeepers attached to MINUSMA have been killed, more than any other UN peacekeeping mission.

US Special Operations Command Africa

The May 2016 issue of the CTC Sentinel contains an interview with Brigadier General Donald C. Bolduc, Commander, Special Operations Command Africa, titled "A View from the CT Foxhole." Bolduc sets forth a common sense US approach for assisting African countries with their counterterrorism challenges.

Violent Islamist Extremism and Terror in Africa

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in October 2015 a study titled "Violent Islamist Extremism and Terror in Africa" by Jakkie Cilliers, executive director of ISS in Pretoria.  The paper presents on overview of large-scale violence by Islamist extremists in key African countries, especially Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, and Somalia. 

ISS published in October 2015 a companion piece by Cilliers titled "Future (Im)perfect? Mapping Conflict, Violence and Extremism in Africa."  It examines the high levels of non-state conflict in the Middle East and Africa compared to the rest of the world and the systemic imbalances that drive instability.

China-US Cooperation on Counterterrorism in Africa?

Brookings in Washington published on 10 September 2014 a commentary titled "China and the Rising Terrorist Threats in Africa: Time for U.S.-China Cooperation?" by Yun Sun, visiting fellow at the Washington-based Africa Growth Initiative.

The author noted the two countries held in July 2014 a U.S.-China Counter-Terrorism Sub-Dialogue.  She concluded that China believes the U.S. war against terrorism gives Washington tremendous technical, intelligence, and operational advantages on counterterrorism issues that are increasingly relevant for China.  Consequently, China seeks U.S. cooperation for addressing Chinese security threats, but not necessarily those in Africa that are low on China's agenda.  The possibility for U.S.-China counterterrorism cooperation in Africa exists, but only under certain circumstances. 

Understanding Terrorism and the Islamist Challenge in the Maghreb

The Marine Corps University Journal published in its summer 2013 edition an article titled "Understanding Terrorism and the Islamist Challenge in the Maghreb" by Valentina Bartolucci, a lecturer in the politics of terrorism at the University of Pisa in Italy.  This article (pages 54-79) is a nice summary of the current terrorist threat facing Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco. 

China Confronts Terrorism in Africa

China-US Focus published on 18 November 2013 a brief commentary I wrote titled "China Confronts Terrorism in Africa."  It assesses China's current approach to dealing with the challenge of terrorism in Africa. 

Panel Discussion of Somalia and Al-Shabaab

China Radio International on 14 October 2013 ran an hour-long, wide-ranging panel discussion about recent developments in Somalia, the Westgate Mall bombing in Kenya, and al-Shabaab.  The panelists were He Wenping, African studies expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Joyce Njogu, TV producer with the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation; and myself. 

AQIM's Strategy in Tunisia

While I normally do not cover North Africa in this blog except as it relates directly to East Africa and the Horn, I call your attention to a particularly good article titled "Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb's Tunisia Strategy" in the 23 July 2013 issue of West Point's CTC Sentinel.

CTC Sentinel

The authors are Aaron Y. Zelin, a fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Andrew Lebovich, a Washington-based analyst for North Africa and the Sahel.

The article analyzes how al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), viewing events in Tunisia through its strategic lens, has responded to that country's revolution. It concludes that AQIM has tried to insert itself into Ansar al-Shari'a in Tunisia's (AST) relationship with the Tunisian state. AQIM has urged AST to be patient to prevent the Tunisian government from cracking down on its activities. At the same time, AQIM's rhetoric toward the Tunisian state has become sharper, opening the possibility of an increase in AQIM-related violence in Tunisia.

China's Response to the Islamist Threat in Mali

China-US focus published on 21 June 2013 my brief piece on "China's Response to the Islamist Threat in Mali."  China's handling of the extremist threat in Mali suggests that it may be prepared to take a more active approach to countering extremism in Africa in the future. 

Suicide Attacks in Africa

Anneli Botha recently wrote a lengthy and well documented "Practical Guide to Understanding and Preventing Suicide Operations in Africa" for the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies.  After describing the problem and misperceptions concerning suicide attacks, Botha provides a history of attacks in Kenya, Tanzania, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Somalia.  Botha discusses al-Shabaab suicide attacks in Somalia, AQIM attacks in the Maghreb and the situation in Nigeria.  The study also offers comments on preventing future suicide attacks. 

Countering Extremism in Africa

The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute published a useful reminder on 6 March 2013 titled "Pardon the Pivot, What about Africa? African Lessons for Avoiding Myopic National Security."  The authors are Frank Cilluffo, Joseph Clark and Clinton Watts. 

The analysis offers a good summary of the security threats that exist in Africa, especially the Sahel region, and suggests a number of questions that need better answers.  In my view, the most important question is what are the political, economic, environmental, social, religious and cultural issues that create a safe haven for extremist groups in Africa.  In other words, what are the root causes of extremism?  Once an answer to this question is agreed upon, it might be possible to make some real progress in combating extremism in the region.

China Radio International Panel Discussion on African Sahel

China Radio International asked me to participate on 31 January 2013 in an hour long panel discussion of recent developments in the Sahel region of Africa.  The other panelists were Ayo Johnson, director of Viewpoint Africa in London, and Antoine Lokongo, a researcher at the Center for African Studies at Peking University in Beijing.  The discussion focused on efforts by African countries, France and the United States to counter terrorism in the region.

Click here to access a recording of the discussion.