China Challenges US in Djibouti

The Washington Post published on 27 September 2018 a commentary titled "China Challenging the U.S. in the Horn of Africa--and Washington Is Silent" by Josh Rogin.

The author argues that as China builds up its military presence in Djibouti, where the United States also has a military base, the US government "so far, seems unwilling or unable to confront the problem."

China-Rwanda Relations

China's Global Times interviewed Rwanda's ambassador to China on 3 May 2017 following President Paul Kagame's March visit to Beijing.

The ambassador acknowledged the similarities between the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front and the Communist Party of China. He suggested the Chinese development model is more appropriate for Africa than the Western model because Western aid comes with political strings and Chinese aid does not.

China in Namibia: A Force for Good or Not?

The New York Times Magazine published on 2 May 2017 an extensive account focused on Namibia titled "Is China the World's New Colonial Power?" by Brook Larmer.

The author suggests that for some Namibians the flood of Chinese loans and investments doesn't look so much like freedom as it does a new form of colonialism. The new infrastructure projects have saddled the economy with debt and done little so far to alleviate the nearly 30 percent unemployment rate. Somewhere between 10,000 and 100,000 Chinese nationals now live in Namibia. Reflecting on China's image in other African countries, the author concludes that China can be seen by others, in the same instant, as a blessing and a curse.

Chinese Casino Complex for Cape Verde

The Diplomat published on 25 April 2017 an article titled "Cabo Verde's Gamble: Chinese Island-Building in the Atlantic" by Roncevert Ganan Almond, partner with the Washington-based Wicks Group.

The article describes a $275 million casino complex to be built in Cape Verde by Macau Legend Development Ltd. led by billionaire David Chow. The project calls for extensive land reclamation.

China's Power Projection in the Western Indian Ocean

The Jamestown Foundation's China Brief published on 20 April 2017 my analysis titled "China's Power Projection in the Western Indian Ocean."

It looks at the growth of the Chinese naval presence in the Western Indian Ocean, explains the reasons behind this interest, and comments on the reaction of other major naval players in the Indian Ocean: the United States, India, and France.

China in Africa

The Council on Foreign Relations published on 17 April 2017 a nice overview titled "China in Africa" by Eleanor Albert that briefly covers most aspects of the China-Africa relationship.

China, Africa, US Engagement: What Is the Connection?

The Confucius Institute US Center posted on 18 April 2017 a 42 minute video titled "China, Africa, US Engagement: What Is the Connection?" with the following panelists: John Paden, George Mason University, Stephen O'Connell, Swarthmore College, and myself.

The topics covered included trade, Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, investment, education, diplomacy, security, anti-piracy, counterterrorism, peacekeeping, health, agriculture, soft power, special economic zones, and technology transfer. There were specific references to Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Mauritius.

Chinese Investors in Ethiopia

Two think tanks, Moroccan-based OCP Policy Center, and French-based IFRI, published in March 2017 a study titled "Chinese Investors in Ethiopia: The Perfect Match?" by Francoise Nicolas, director of IFRI's Center for Asian Studies.

The author concluded the impact of Chinese investment in Ethiopia is mixed. Although China has played a useful role by setting up industrial zones, financing infrastructure, and encouraging Chinese firms to move some manufacturing production to Ethiopia, its transformative power remains limited. Skill transfer has been disappointing and local labor inputs do not always reach the standard expected by the Chinese companies.

Egypt, China, and One Belt, One Road

World Politics Review published on 6 April 2017 an interview with Kyle Haddad-Fonda, an expert on China's relations with the Arab word, titled "How China Uses One Belt, One Road to Foreground Longstanding Egypt Ties."

The author links One Belt, One Road with China's willingness to provide financing, investment, and currency swaps for Egypt. On the other hand, one of the two Chinese state-owned companies committed to the first two phases of construction of a new capital city has pulled out of the project.

China Expands Marine Corps to Deploy in Locations Such as Djibouti

The South China Morning Post published on 13 March 2017 an article titled "As Overseas Ambitions Expand, China Plans 400 Per Cent Increase to Marine Corps Numbers, Sources Say" by Minnie Chan.

The article says China plans to increase the size of its Marine Corps from about 20,000 to 100,000 personnel to protect the nation's maritime lifelines and its growing interests overseas. Some of these personnel will be stationed at ports China will operate in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa and Gwadar in southwest Pakistan. One analyst suggests these forces could help maintain security for China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

The Power of Ports: China's Maritime March

The Diplomat published on 8 March 2017 an interview with Sam Beatson, King's College London, titled "The Power of Ports: China's Maritime March" by Mercy A. Kuo.

Beatson concluded there is projection of power in the way China has built up and deployed port, merchant shipping, and naval assets, in addition to the economic logic of doing so. A recognition of the need to deal with Chinese vulnerability, particularly in respect of protecting the flow of commodity imports, especially energy, forms a part of the practical basis of the expansion.

Will Djibouti Become the Singapore of Africa?

The Sino-Africa Centre of Excellence (SACE) published on 31 January 2017 a commentary titled "Will Djibouti Become the Singapore of Africa?" by Arting Luo.

The author concluded that Djibouti has the potential, especially with investment from China, to become the future Singapore but needs to learn from Singapore's success. While I would be much more suspect in reaching this conclusion, the piece makes for an interesting read. SACE is an "applied think tank" based in Nairobi, Kenya, that seems to be focused primarily on increasing trade and business between China and Africa, especially Kenya.

Djibouti-Addis Ababa Railway and Role of China

The New York Times published on 7 February 2017 an article titled "Joyous Africans Take to the Rails, with China's Help" by Andrew Jacobs.

The article credits China for its financing and building a new railway between Djibouti and Addis Ababa, noting that the United States did not have the vision to take on the project. Actually, the problem in the United States is less about vision and more about lack of financing.

China's One Belt One Road and Africa

The South Asia Monitor published on 5 February 2017 an article titled "China Pushes for Africa On Board OBOR Bandwagon - Analysis" by Narayani Basu, a freelance journalist.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi completed his five-country visit to Africa in January. The author argues that China's plan for strengthening One Belt One Road in Africa comes at an opportune time: post-Brexit and at the beginning of a Trump administration that has barely mentioned policy towards Africa. He concludes: "There is no doubt that a rich geopolitical opportunity is up for grabs, as far as both Beijing and sub-Saharan Africa are concerned."

Ethiopia: Maiden Issue of Discourse Magazine

The Ethiopian Foreign Relations Strategic Studies Institute (EFRSSI) published last month the maiden issue of its new magazine, Discourse. EFRSSI is the successor organization to the Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and Development (EIIPD), which was essentially the Foreign Ministry's think tank. EFRSSI describes itself as an autonomous strategic studies institution established under a regulation promulgated by the Ethiopian Federal Council of Ministers. It has received funding over the next three years from the Netherland's government in an agreement signed with the Institute of International Relations Clingendael Academy.

The first issue (January-March 2017) contains the following contributions:

--Ethiopia and Eritrea: The Waiting Game by Yosief Ghebrehiwet
--New Challenges for the Horn of Africa by Alex de Waal
--Horn of Africa and the Gulf States by David H. Shinn
--The UAE and Its Relations with the HoA by Mehari Taddele Maru
--Bridge Over Mereb and Other Rivers by Saleh Johar
--Federalism, Diversity & Development in Ethiopia by Asefa Fisseha
--Revamping Ethiopia's Foreign Policy Strategy by Goitom Gebreluel
--In Search of an Enduring Direction by Dade Desta and Medhane Tadesse
--Conversations with Peter Pham on Africa
--America: Time to Learn a New Vocabulary by Getachew Reda
--Saving South Sudan by Michael Minassie
--The OBOR: What Is in There for Africa? by Melaku Mulualem
--My Encounter with President Barak Obama by Zeresenay Alem Seged
--Refined Diplomatic Power of Ancient Ethiopia by Ayele Bekerie
--Reimagining the Aksumite Obelisk by Chester Higgins and Betsy Kissam

Discourse is currently only available by subscription.

A Changing World Order: China's Rise in Africa

The American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) at Johns Hopkins University published on 29 December 2016 an essay titled "A Changing World Order: China's Rise in Africa" by Anna Stahl, most recently a research fellow at AICGS.

The author comments that while Europe and the United States have been Africa's traditional partners, China is starting to challenge their influence on the continent. The essay compares how Europe and the U.S. have responded to China's growing influence in Africa. It argues that in the current context of global uncertainty, transatlantic policy coordination on China is needed to contribute to a more stable and predictable international environment and to avoid that the rise of new powers and the ongoing power transition will lead to confrontation.

A New Stage in China-Egypt Relations

The Middle East Review of International Affairs published in its Winter 2016 edition a study titled "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: A New State in China-Egypt Relations" by Mordechai Chaziza, Ashkelon Academic College in Israel.

The author argues that since 2014 China has entered a closer political and economic relationship with Egypt. While economic interests are the primary consideration, the strategic potential of Egypt's geographic location and the size of its economic market make it a promising partner for China's wider ambitions in the region.

How Donald Trump Could Give China a Real Boost in Africa

The China Africa Project did a half hour podcast on 7 January 2017 titled "How Donald Trump Could Give China a Real Boost in Africa" with Janet Eom, research manager at the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.

The podcast with Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden covered a range of issues that included trade, Power Africa, Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, human rights, and LGBT issues.

China's Security Interests in the Indian Ocean

The University of Adelaide Law School Research Unit on Military Law and Ethics published in 2016 a short paper titled "National Security Interests and India [sic] Ocean: China's Perspective" by Senior Colonel Xu Qiyu, deputy director at the Institute for Strategic Studies of China's National Defense University.

Almost 40 percent of China's foreign trade and 80 percent of its imported oil passes through the Indian Ocean coming from Africa and the Middle East. The author emphasizes the growing security importance of the Indian Ocean for China and the need to determine how to protect its security interests without falling into the trap of strategic rivalry with other major powers such as India, the United States, and Australia. Xu Qiyu offers a surprisingly frank analysis of Chinese interests and the possibilities for competition and cooperation with India and the United States.

Chinese Foreign Direct Investment Flowing to Africa

The South China Morning Post published on 18 October 2016 an article titled "Soaring Costs Force More Chinese Firms to Look Overseas, As Latest Figures Show ODI Surges 53.7pc in Year to Date" by Xie Yu.

The article reports that Chinese firms are increasingly eyeing opportunities outside China with Africa becoming a favored destination rather than locations in Asia. The article reaches this conclusion by drawing primarily on anecdotal accounts of new Chinese investment in Ethiopia and Tanzania.