Tigray Defense Force Losses Suggest Return to Guerrilla Warfare

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 October 2022 a commentary titled "Tigray's Resistance Will Grow in the Face of Adversity" by Yonas Nigussie, a political economist.

The author argues that the recent loss of towns to the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies may strengthen Tigrayan resistance as they return to guerrilla tactics.  The Tigray Defense Force strategy is to buy time and gradually weaken Ethiopian and Eritrean forces.

Is Ethiopia Stuck in a Guerrilla War in Tigray Region?

 The Guardian published on 4 April 2021 an article titled "Ethiopia Is Fighting 'Difficult and Tiresome' Guerrilla War in Tigray, Says PM" by Jason Burke.

After declaring a couple of months ago a decisive victory in Ethiopia's "police action" in Tigray Region, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has now acknowledged Ethiopian central government forces are engaged in a guerrilla war that is "difficult and tiresome."

Comment:  The outcome may well depend on how long Eritrean forces are willing to commit significant numbers of troops to the conflict in support of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and whether they can maintain morale in a foreign war.

Ethiopian Refugees Bring Terrible Tales to Sudan

 The New York Times posted on 9 December 2020 an article with numerous pictures titled "Fleeing Ethiopians Tell of Ethnic Massacres in Tigray War" by Abdi Latif Dahir.  

Some 50,000 Ethiopians have fled to Sudan where they are now refugees.  The author interviewed some of these refugees in Sudan and concluded that "as the fighting in Tigray continues, it is degenerating into a guerrilla war that could unravel both Ethiopia's national fabric and the stability of the entire Horn of Africa region."  

Unrest in Ethiopia: CNN Interview

 CNN Newsroom with Paula Newton did a five minute interview with me on 1 December 2020 titled "Unrest in Ethiopia."

The focus of the interview was on the regional implications of the conflict and where the situation in Tigray goes from here.  

The Resilience of Al-Shabaab

The CTC Sentinel published on 22 April 2016 an analysis titled "The Resilience of Al-Shabaab" by Christopher Anzalone.

The author concluded that al-Shabaab has proven remarkably resilient thanks to pragmatic decision-making and skilled tactical maneuvering. The group's senior leadership continues to maintain overall unity and to ward off a strong challenge from Islamic State sympathizers.

Somalia: Why Is Al-Shabaab Still a Potent Threat?

The International Crisis Group published on 11 February 2016 a commentary titled "Somalia: Why is Al-Shabaab Still a Potent Threat?" by Abdul Khalif and Cedric Barnes.  The authors argue that al-Shabaab's rural insurgency has exposed AMISOM's territorial overstretch, which in certain areas looks more like "occupation" by outsiders.  Only a durable political settlement will end the al-Shabaab threat.