The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.
They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region. They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war. They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.
