Quad Calls for Sudan Cease Fire and Cites Harm of External Military Aid

 The U.S. State Department posted on 12 September 2025 a "Joint Statement on Restoring Peace and Security in Sudan."

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States called on all disputing parties in Sudan to accept a humanitarian three-month truce followed immediately by a permanent cease fire.  They added that an end to external military support is essential to ending the conflict.

Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia

 The Atlantic Council published on 19 September 2024 an analysis titled "Egypt Is Cozying Up to Somalia to Thwart Ethiopia" by Shahira Amin.

In August, Egypt sent two C-130 planes with weapons and ammunition to Mogadishu to improve relations with Somalia and send a message to Ethiopia.  Egypt has long opposed Addis Ababa's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  It grew increasingly concerned following Ethiopia's memorandum of understanding with Somaliland that includes a possible Ethiopian naval base on the Somaliland coast.  

Derailed Political Transition Responsible for War in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 29 October 2023 a commentary titled "The War in Sudan Is a Consequence of a Derailed Transition" by Dirdeiry M. Ahmed, briefly a former foreign minister in Sudan and now at the University of Khartoum.  

The author lays most of the blame for the ongoing war in Sudan on the derailed political transition and actions of the international community following the toppling of the Omar al-Bashir government.  He argues that the top priority of the international community has been the sidelining of the Islamists while the focus should have been economic recovery and elections.  

Sudan Is Disintegrating

 The International Crisis Group posted on 13 October 2023 a 42 minute podcast titled "After Six Months of War, Sudan Is Disintegrating" with Suliman Baldo, Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker.

This is an insightful discussion of the current internal situation in Sudan.  Six months of fighting has destroyed much of the Khartoum region and parts of Darfur.  Sudan faces the prospect of state disintegration.  Although eastern and northern Sudan have been minimally affected by the fighting except for the arrival of IDPs, there is no sign of a functioning Sudanese state today.  The police force, for example, is no longer operating as a normal organization.

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) is relying on its air power and artillery shelling throughout the capital region.  It is in bad shape, outgunned and outmanned by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  The SAF is on the defensive but still controls the military garrisons.  It relies on volunteers from like-minded ethnic groups.  Baldo does not see how the SAF can gain a military advantage under the current circumstances.  

The RSF is ravaging private homes and businesses in the Khartoum region.  Its support is also based on ethnic groups.  RSF foot soldiers are following the command of individual commanders and not the leadership of the organization as there has been a serious degradation of the chain of command.  The RSF is seeking to take control of all of Darfur.

Three different mediation initiatives have made almost no progress and there is minimal coordination among them.  They not only need to improve coordination but to pay more attention to the situation in Darfur, which has received inadequate consideration so far.   

Somalia: Comparing Assistance from Turkey and the UAE

 The Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Air University (Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama) published on 1 June 2022 a study titled "Middle-Power Aid Rivalry in the Horn of Africa: A Comparative Study of Emirati and Turkish Foreign Aid Policy in Somalia" by Fabio van Loon.  

The article demonstrates the radically different approaches to aid in Somalia by Turkey and the UAE.  Turkey is spreading a Turkish form of political Islam that has sparked competition with the UAE, which seeks to contain the spread of political Islam.  

Turkey-Africa Relations

 African Business published on 19 October 2021 an article titled "Erdogan Eyes Deals at Turkey-Africa Summit" by Shoshana Kedem. 

Increased trade and investment in Africa represent a huge success story for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has massive problems at home with an economy that is not doing well.   

Gulf State Interaction with the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 March 2021 a 25 minute podcast titled "The Horn: What Does Reconciliation among Gulf States Mean for Africa?" with Alan Boswell and Elham Fakhro, the Crisis Group's senior analyst for Gulf States.

The January 2021 al-Ula declaration ends the blockade of Qatar and promises an end to the rift between them.  The question is whether it will lead to a de-escalation of their rivalries in the Horn of Africa and elsewhere.  Fakhro suggests the agreement does not resolve the underlying disagreements among the Gulf States but will help restore the mechanisms for resolving disputes.  

Gulf State Competition Plays Out in Horn of Africa

The International Crisis Group published on 19 September 2019 a report titled "Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa's Horn: Lessening the Impact."

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey are competing to set the rules for a Red Sea region long in turmoil. Two overlapping rivalries drive and define this engagement: a split withing the Gulf pitting Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt against Qatar and Turkey and competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In both of these divisions, the main rivals see Africa as a new arena for competition and building alliances. They also see China as the emerging dominant force in the Horn, and hence one with which they will need to ally, as U.S. and European influence recedes.

Sudan: Role of Foreign Powers

World Politics Review published on 6 August 2019 an analysis titled "From the Gulf to Egypt, Foreign Powers Are Playing with Fire in Sudan" by Richard Downie, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The author concludes that foreign powers should recognize that their attempts to promote a stable future in Sudan could instead help tip the country into civil war.

UAE Behind Removal of Former Sudanese President?

Reuters published an in-depth account on 3 July 2019 titled "Abandoned by the UAE, Sudan's Bashir Was Destined To Fall" by Khalid Abdelaziz, Michael Georgy, and Maha El Dahan.

The authors argue that former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir mishandled a critical relationship with the United Arab Emirates and at the end of 2018, as Sudan's economy imploded and protesters took to the streets, Bashir found himself without this powerful and wealthy friend.

Politics in the Horn of Africa: A Shuffled Deck

The Africa at LSE blog posted a commentary titled "Transformation Euphoria in the Horn of Africa" by Abukar Arman, a former Somali diplomat.

The author evaluates the new complexities of relationships in the Horn of Africa and the impact of Gulf State interests in the region. Increasingly, politics in the Horn of Africa is looking like a card game of 52 pick up.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan

The International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard published in September 2017 a study titled "The Muslim Brotherhood Movement in the Arab Winter" by Stig Jarle Hansen, Mohamed Husein Gaas, and Ida Bary.

The study maps the three most important Brotherhood-influenced organizations in Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan. It concludes that the Muslim Brotherhood is diverse and fragmented but its ideology will remain a significant political force.

The Islamic Movement in Sudan

The May 2017 issue of Prism includes an article titled "Islam from the Cold: A Muslim Brother's Reflections on the Past, Present, and Future of the Islamic Movement in the Sudan" by Marie Besancon, Portland State University.

Following the death of Hassan al-Turabi, Sayyed Ahmed Abdul Rahman Mohamed Ahmed has emerged as the elder statesman of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan. This article assesses the Muslim Brothers in Sudan as it emerges from the Hassan al-Turabi period.

Sudan-Egypt Ties: Not All Is Well

Al-Monitor posed on 31 March 2017 an article titled "Despite Talk of Good Relations, Security Concerns Darken Egypt-Sudan Ties" by Ayah Aman.

The article identifies a series of security issues that complicate Sudan-Egypt relations and suggests that Sudan is moving closer to the Gulf States and Ethiopia on several important regional matters such as countering terrorism and the Nile waters.

Sudan: Hassan Al-Turabi Makes Another U-Turn?

Asharq Al-Awsat published on 13 February 2015 an opinion piece titled "The Mystery That Is Hassan Al-Turabi" by Osman Mirghani, former deputy editor of Asharq Al-Awsat.  Turabi is now 83, has been the leader of Sudan's Muslim Brotherhood faction for most of his adult life, and has been in and out of jail over that same period.

Mirghani focuses on a speech al-Turabi recently gave in the presence of President Omar al-Bashir.  Al-Turbi urged a return to dialogue with the al-Bashir government after a falling out in 1999.  Mirghani says al-Turabi's recent actions may mark a U-turn whereby he wants his followers to reach an accord with the government.  Others see a new conspiracy by Sudan's Islamists.  Whatever the goal, Omar al-Bashir seems certain to prevail in office this year for another five year term. 

Interview on Nile Water

EthiopiaFirst.com asked me to respond to several questions concerning the Nile water issue.  The website published the interview on 14 June 2013 titled "Discussion with Amb. David H. Shinn on the Issue of Nile Water."

Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nile Water

The Egyptian private daily newspaper, Youm 7, asked me to respond to a series of questions concerning Egypt's relations with Ethiopia and the impact of Ethiopia's new Renaissance Dam on Egypt.  I submitted my responses on 1 June 2013, before the Egyptian public relations debacle on this issue noted in a posting below dated 5 June 2013.  Youm 7 published the interview translated into Arabic on 6 June 2013.  You can also read the original English version titled "Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nile Water."

Analysis of Power Structure in Sudan

Ahmed Kodouda, a senior program associate for East and the Horn of Africa Program at Freedom House, posted 22 July 2012 on Aljazeera a useful analysis of the current structure of power in Sudan. Kodouda divides the power base into three parts: the Sudanese Armed Forces, the Islamic Movement or Sudan's counterpart to the Muslim Brotherhood, and the leadership of the National Congress Party. He looks at this structure in light on the ongoing street protests in Sudan.

Click here to read the commentary.

Islamism and Politics in Somalia

Abdurahman M. Abdullahi, director of al-Islah's political office and a Somali presidential candidate, spoke at Chatham House in London on 12 June 2012. He focused on the role of Islam in Somali politics. Al-Islah developed in 1978 as the Somali branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Click here to read a summary of Abdullahi's comments.

More on the Muslim Brotherhood

Because of the important role Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has had on the political situation in Sudan and Somalia, I am including another commentary on it.

This one is by Nathan Brown, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

His brief analysis, titled “The Brotherhood’s Coming-Out Party” and dated March 24, 2011, appeared on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace web site.