Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West

 Foreign Policy published on 10 November 2021 a commentary titled "Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West" by Seifudein Adem, Doshisha University in Japan.

The author concludes that it appears Ethiopia is reaching a stage where it cannot save itself and only the West has the willingness and capacity to rescue the Ethiopian state from devouring its own citizens--and eventually itself.  US efforts to help Ethiopia have led to anti-Americanism in Ethiopia that is not ideological and is, therefore, a short-term phenomenon.  It is connected with what the United States is perceived to be doing rather than what the United States is.  At such a perilous moment, it is important for ordinary Ethiopians to understand why they should trust the West.

The underlying frame of reference of the conflict in Tigray region is the contrasting visions of two groups--Amhara and Tigrayan elites--about the future direction of Ethiopia.  Tigrayan elites want to keep ethnic federalism while Amhara elites want to abolish ethnic federalism because it undermines Ethiopia's unity.  

Ethiopia's Western friends can help the country as it tries to heal itself.  If Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wants to keep Ethiopia together, he will be better off embracing Western efforts rather than shunning them. 

Comment:  A great deal of ink has been spilled in recent months on the humanitarian crisis and civil war in Ethiopia.  The comments by Seifudein Adem are among the most rational and constructive that I have seen.  

Trump Ratchets Up Pressure on Ethiopia Over Blue Nile Dam

 The Washington Post published on 24 October 2020 an Associated Press article titled "Ethiopia Blasts Trump Remark that Egypt Will 'Blow Up' Dam" by Elias Meseret.  

The Trump administration has been pressuring Ethiopia for weeks to accept an agreement the US Treasury Secretary proposed to Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  The agreement seems to favor Egypt; Ethiopia rejected the agreement and requested that discussions about filling the reservoir behind the dam and subsequent release of water from the dam be moved to the African Union, which has occurred.

The Trump administration announced in late September it is withholding some US assistance to Ethiopia until it accepts the US agreement.  President Trump dialed up the pressure on Ethiopia on 23 October when he said Egypt "will end up blowing up the dam." He added: "And I said it and I say it loud and clear . . . they'll blow up that dam. And they have to do something." 

Why the US president is pouring gasoline on this fire escapes me.  The African Union is dealing with the problem; the US should stay out of it.  Sudan is undergoing some of its worst flooding in recent history because of record rains in the Nile Basin.  By holding back some water on the Blue Nile, the Ethiopian dam is actually ameliorating the flooding in Sudan.  Blowing up the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam worsens the flooding in Sudan and could well start a war in Northeast Africa.

While Trump's statement may improve US ties with Egypt's leaders and encourage them to do something really stupid, it significantly worsens ties with Ethiopia and leaves Sudan's leaders scratching their heads.  

Ethiopia: Challenges Facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

World Politics Review posted on 3 January 2019 a commentary titled "In a Bold Experiment, Ethiopia's Abiy Aims to Put Citizenship Over Ethnicity" by Frida Ghitis, world affairs columnist.

The author concludes that the challenge for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his reformist allies is to strengthen Ethiopians' bonds to the state, develop credible national institutions, and craft a credible mechanism for resolving inflamed ethnic disputes while fostering a commitment to his democratic program.