Ethiopia: Analysis of Recent Conflict in Western Oromia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2023 a paper titled "Ethiopia Conflict Trend Analysis: Western Oromia" by Damena Abebe.

The paper provides an analysis of the conflict trends in the western part of Ethiopia's Oromia regional state over the second half of 2022 and first two months of 2023.  It highlights the potential for negotiations between the regional and federal governments and the Oromo Liberation Army.  

Ethiopia: Oromo Activist Urges Reconciliation after Release from Prison

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 June 2022 a commentary titled "Jawar Mohammed: From 'la Luta Continua' to Peace Preacher" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

The government of Ethiopia released from prison early this year Jawar Mohammed, outspoken Oromo nationalist and political activist.  On the few occasions that he as spoken since his release, he has encouraged a democratic and unified Ethiopia.  He called for preserving the territorial integrity of Ethiopia, democratization of the political system, creation of an inclusive political community, and making Ethiopia a home for everyone.   

Oromia and the Southern Regions in Ethiopia's Conflict

 Foreign Policy posted on 25 January 2022 a commentary titled "How Abiy Ahmed Betrayed Oromia and Endangered Ethiopia" by Milkessa M. Gemechu, Albion College and a former official in Oromia.  

The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has sought to crush the nationalist movement in Oromia and, as a result, lost much Oromo support.  The international community has only focused on the situation in northern Ethiopia between Tigray and the central government.  Any agreement between Abiy and the TPLF-led government in Tigray region will fail to achieve peace in Ethiopia unless it takes into account the concerns of Oromia and the southern regions.  

Ethiopian Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 18 December 2019 a commentary titled "Middleman" by Mebratu Kelecha, University of Westminster.

This is a pessimistic account of political developments in Ethiopia. The author charges that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed displays a façade of rationality but uses ethno-nationalism as it suits his political purposes. Political space is closing and hopes are fading.

Ethiopia: More Political Realignment

Ethiopia Insight published on 17 December 2019 a commentary titled "Lemma's Disunity Drug" by Worku Aberra, Dawson College in Canada.

The author discusses continuing realignments in Ethiopia's political party structure.

Ethiopia's Political Transition

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 16 December 2019 a report titled "Keeping Ethiopia's Transition on the Rails."

The ICG concluded that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should move cautiously in implementing reforms, step up efforts to reduce tensions among Oromo factions and between Amhara and Tigray regional leaders, and, if necessary, consider delaying next year's parliamentary election.

Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution

The Journal of Democracy published in July 2019 an article titled "Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution" by Jon Temin and Yoseph Badwaza, both at Freedom House.

The authors concluded that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces major challenges before possible elections in 2020. He draws positive headlines around the globe, but is not always helped by his messaging at home. He and his government need to do more to lay out their vision of a comprehensive reform process with clear bench-marks and goals, and they need to set up mechanisms that can monitor progress and ensure accountability.

Ethiopia: Internal Oromo Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 7 June 2019 an analysis titled "Two Steps Forward, One Step Back for Oromia" by Ermias Tasfaye, a reporter in Ethiopia.

The analysis looks at the state of internal Oromo politics and especially the future of the Oromo Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Army.

Ethiopia: Local Elections May Show Way Forward

Ethiopia Insight posted on 29 May 2019 a commentary titled "Political Shake-up and Localism Can Edge Ethiopia Forwards" by Rene Lefort.

The ruling EPRDF is paralyzed. Local elections could mark an important step forward and possibly lead to a new political settlement in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia: Treating Transitional Trauma

Ethiopia Insight posted on 9 May 2019 a commentary titled "Treating Transitional Trauma" by Mukerrem Miftah, University of Ankara.

The author concludes that the political transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been unstable and is sending signals of state disorder.

Ethiopia: Weaving Together Multiple Plot Lines

Ethiopia Insight posted on 7 April 2019 a commentary titled "Abiy Must Weave Together Multiple Plot Lines" by William Davison, owner and editor of Ethiopia Insight.

The author argues that a ruthless struggle among competing domestic plot lines is underway in Ethiopia. Only by successfully weaving these plot lines together will progress towards a peaceful and prosperous pluralism be achieved.

Election Challenges Facing Ethiopia

Ethiopia Insight published on 27 February 2019 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Elite Lost in Electoral Maze under Abiy's Gaze" by Rene Lefort, specialist in African affairs, and Kjetil Tronvoll, Bjorknes University College Oslo.

The authors note there is widespread concern that Ethiopia will not be ready for democratic elections in May 2020. There is a slide towards personalization and deinstitutionalization of power in the country. There is no quick fix to the predicament that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the EPRDF, and Ethiopia are in.

Ethiopia: Preventing the Pot from Boiling Over

Ethiopia Insight posted on 12 February 2019 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Uncorked" by Leake Tewele, reporter in Addis Ababa, and Kulle Kursha, Hawassa University.

Regional and ethnic conflict has displaced more than 1 million Ethiopians since 2017 and there are almost 3 million IDPs in the country. This situation poses a serious challenge to the Abiy Ahmed government.

Ethiopia: Divisions among the Oromo

Ethiopia Insight posted on 27 January 2019 a commentary titled "Oromos Must Seize Historic Opportunity" by Olaana Abbaaxiiqi, a pen name for a lawyer who lives in the United States.

The author argues that there are too many Oromo political factions serving their own interests. They now have a responsibility to work towards reconciliation and not division of the Oromo people.

Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia

Foreign Policy posted on 15 January 2019 a commentary titled "Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia" by Florian Bieber, University of Graz in Austria, and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu, Addis Ababa University.

Similar to the former Yugoslavia, Ethiopia is a federal state with nine units organized along ethnic lines. Empowering ethnic groups through territorial autonomy has been a double-edged sword. While allowing self-government has reduced tensions stemming from the dominance of a particular group, it places ethnic belonging at the center of politics, links it to territory, and therefore risks an eventual increase in ethnic tensions. The Yugoslav scenario offers a cautionary tale.

Ethiopia: Parties Struggle to Gain Political Advantage

Ethiopia Insight posted on 9 January 2018 a commentary titled "TPLF Hegemony Has Ended, But EPRDF Power Struggle Is Just Beginning" by Mastewal Dessalew, a US-based software engineer.

The author argues that the ruling EPRDF parties have lost a unifying political ideology. In the meantime, the author says the EPRDF "is a collection of factions engaged in medieval-like political intrigue in order to become the country's dominant force."

Ethiopia: Challenges Facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

World Politics Review posted on 3 January 2019 a commentary titled "In a Bold Experiment, Ethiopia's Abiy Aims to Put Citizenship Over Ethnicity" by Frida Ghitis, world affairs columnist.

The author concludes that the challenge for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his reformist allies is to strengthen Ethiopians' bonds to the state, develop credible national institutions, and craft a credible mechanism for resolving inflamed ethnic disputes while fostering a commitment to his democratic program.

Ethiopia: Inside Oromo Politics

Ethiopia Insight published on 1 January 2019 an analysis titled "Team Lemma's Choice: Power or Peace?" by Ermias Tasfaye.

This is a look at the evolving alignments in Oromo politics in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia: Power Politics in Oromia

Ethiopia Insight posted on 30 October 2018 an analysis titled "Rallies Held in Oromia Over Threat To Disarm OLF" by Ermias Tasfaye.

Oromo Liberation Army, the armed wing of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), commanders claim they were not informed by OLF leaders that there had been an agreement to demobilize following their move from Eritrea to Ethiopia. This has led to the threat of forcible disarming by the Ethiopian National Defense Force. At least three different political parties are now competing for support among Oromos, Ethiopia's most populous ethnic group.

Ethiopia Faces Political Uncertainty

Ethiopia Insight published on 21 October 2018 an analysis titled "Ethiopia: Climbing Mount Uncertainty" by Rene Lefort, who has written on African issues since the 1970s.

The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made three huge strategic errors as he announced his reform program. There are now four future scenarios, all of which are steep and tortuous as Ethiopia faces a mountain of uncertainty.