Ethiopia's Afar Ploy

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 November 2025 an analysis titled "Pawn on the Red Sea: Ethiopia's Afar Gambit" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is turning to Afar nationalism as a ploy to gain access to the Red Sea.  Landlocked Ethiopia is invoking Afar victimhood under Isaias Afwerki in Eritrea and positioning Addis Ababa as a patron of Afar self-determination.  How this eventually achieves access to the sea for Ethiopia is not clear.

In the meantime, Eritrea is deploying military forces along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border and arming proxy groups inside Ethiopia.  Abiy's ploy also raises concerns in Djibouti, which has a minority Afar population.

Djibouti's Presidential Transition in April 2026

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 November 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti at a Crossroads: The Presidential Transition Crisis Ahead of April 2026 Elections."

President Ismail Omar Guelleh is considering amending the constitution to pursue a sixth term.  Three scenarios now face Djibouti's political future: (1) a constitutional amendment allowing Guelleh to remain president for a sixth term; (2) a controlled and negotiated transfer of power; or (3) elections that result in an alternative candidate from the Issa clan assuming office.  

Djibouti: Interview with President Guelleh (in French)

Jeune Afrique published on 4 April 2017 a long and fascinating interview titled "Ismail Omar Guelleh: Personne d'autre que les Chinois n'offre an partenariat a long terme a Djibouti" that covers relations with key countries and internal developments.

France, the US, Japan and now China all have military bases in Djibouti. President Guelleh discusses the challenges these bases pose for Djiboutian relations with these and other countries. The president is especially positive about Djiboutian relations with China, commenting that "the reality is that no one but the Chinese offers a long-term partnership in Djibouti."