The International Crisis Group posted on 9 October 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?" with Richard Atwood and Alan Boswell.
Eritrean Defense Forces are aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front forces against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and an opposition Tigrayan contingent. The war in Tigray Region is nearing the Ethiopia-Eritrea border as ENDF troops advance and raises the possibility of extending into Eritrea.
Landlocked Ethiopia remains committed to obtaining permanent access to the Red Sea, although Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says he will seek maritime access through negotiation and not force. Does the war in Tigray change the equation?
