The Houthis Cautious Support for Iran

 AEI's Critical Threats published on 3 April 2026 an analysis titled "Houthi Escalation Calculus Following Cautious Entry into the Iran War" by Liam Karr and Brian Carter.

The Iran-backed Houthis threatened to join Iran's campaign with attacks across the region designed to coerce the United States and Israel to make concessions in negotiations with Iran and to deter further military escalation against Iran.  But the Houthis are unlikely to follow through on these threats unless the US and its allies cross certain Houthi or Iranian red lines, such as the Gulf states entering the war or ground operations against Iran, to avoid retaliation from the US and its allies that would jeopardize the groups domestic position. 

The Houthis have conducted several attacks targeting southern Israel since March 27, marking the group's first involvement in the war.  Attacks on Israel minimize the risk of entanglement with the Gulf states or the United States.  They draw retaliatory Israeli strikes on Yemen that only temporarily damage Houthi infrastructure while further rallying popular support for the group.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis Resume Attacks on Israel; Is Red Sea Next?

 The Times of Israel published on 28 March 2026 an article titled "Houthi Missile Attack on Israel Stokes Fears of Renewed Strikes on Red Sea Shipping."

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missile and drone attacks on Israel on 28 March, marking the first Houthi response since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran.  The strikes raise the specter of renewed Houthi attacks to disrupt international shipping in the Red Sea.  About 12 percent of world trade passes through the Suez Canal and Red Sea.

Why the Iran-backed Houthis Have Stayed Out of the Conflict

 Foreign Policy published on 11 March 2026 an analysis titled "Why Haven't the Houthis Fired?" by Fatima Abo Alasrar.

In 2025, Israeli airstrikes killed Iranian-backed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed el-Rahawi and other key officials.  US airstrikes significantly degraded their military capacity.  

Iran is now bombing Arab cities, resulting is less enthusiasm by the Houthis to support Tehran.  The Houthis also fear that Iranian attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia will drive them closer together, possibly recreating the original alliance against the Houthis.  While this changing political situation in the region does not guarantee the Houthis will stay out of the conflict, it has given the leadership reason to tread carefully.

Iran's Influence in Africa

 The American Foreign Policy Council published in November 2025 an in-depth study titled "Charting Iran's Influence in Africa" by Alexander Brown, Charlotte Krausz, and Rob Gioia.  

Africa is a testing ground for Iran's influence operations, a pathway for sanctions evasion, and strategic depth for its foreign policy initiatives.  After mostly ignoring Africa during Hassan Rouhani's rule (2013-2021), Ibrahim Raisi (2021-2024) reestablished engagement with the continent as a strategic priority.  Iran has sought to leverage latent anti-Western sentiment and exploit the political opening created by the departure of longtime regional players such as France.  

Do US Air Strikes Signal Game Over for the Houthis?

 Foreign Policy published on 19 March 2025 an analysis titled "Is This Game Over for the Houthis?" by Burcu Ozcelik and Baraa Shiban, both at the Royal United Services Institute.

The shift in US policy under the Trump administration from targeted air strikes to a more aggressive campaign marks a significant escalation in the attacks on the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthis see themselves as playing the role that Hezbollah once played.  

Most observers agree that a ground operation by US forces is unlikely, which means there is a clear limitation to how much the US can achieve through airstrikes alone.  The Houthis are counting on the US losing interest over the course of a protracted air campaign.  

Challenges Houthis Pose for New US Administration in Red Sea

 The Middle East Eye published on 4 November 2024 an article titled "US Elections 2024: Can the Next US President Roll Back the Houthis' Power in the Red Sea?" by Sean Mathews.  

The article provides a good analysis of the challenges facing the next US administration as it deals with the Houthi threat to international shipping in the Red Sea.

Houthi Strikes, Red Sea Shipping and Yemen's War

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 June 2024 a 47-minute podcast titled "Houthi Strikes, Red Sea Shipping and Yemen's War" with Richard Atwood and Ahmed Nagi.  

The discussion covers attacks by Houthi rebels on shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean and the prospects for an escalation of the conflict both in Yemen and the broader region.  The podcast unpacks what the Houthis are trying to achieve with the attacks, which the group has linked to the war in Gaza, and their relations with Iran and other members of the "axis of resistance".  It assesses how effective the U.S. and UK-led military response has been in deterring Houthi strikes.