Great Power Competition in Djibouti

 The Mashariki Research and Policy Centre published on 16 September 2025 a paper titled "Future Trajectories of Great Power Competition in Djibouti: A Case Study of Military Bases and Maritime Strategy" by Salim Salim, former secretary general of the Organization of African Unity, now the African Union.

Djibouti has attracted a number of military bases, including facilities from France, the United States, and China.  The author concluded that Djibouti gains from the competition but risks being caught in great power rivalries that could destabilize its delicate balancing act. Djibouti demonstrates how a small, strategically located state, can exert influence far beyond its borders while generating vulnerabilities: dependence on foreign rents, exposure to external shocks, and the risk of entanglement in great power rivalries.  

India Unveils Submarine Base as Counter to China

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 April 2025 an article titled "India's New Submarine Base Targets China's Growing Sea Power" by Junaid Kathju.

India has unveiled a new state-of-the-art submarine base near Rambilli in the state of Andhra Pradesh in the Bay of Bengal.  It coincides with the introduction later this year of India's third nuclear-powered submarine.  These developments are occurring against the backdrop of escalating competition between New Delhi and Beijing for strategic influence in the Indian Ocean and broader Indo-Pacific region.

Will China and Russia Save U.S. AFRICOM?

 The China Global South Project published on 2 April 2025 a commentary titled "U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) on the Chopping Block: Can China Save It Again?" by Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu.

Some officials in the Trump administration do not believe Africa warrants a separate military command and want to put it back under the European Command.  Others argue this will only create new openings for adversaries like Russia and China.  The latter argument saved AFRICOM in the first Trump administration.  Will it do so again?

China's Strategic Port Development in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 10 March 2025 an analysis titled "Mapping China's Strategic Port Development in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

Chinese firms are present in about one-quarter of Africa's 231 commercial ports.  In some cases, Chinese firms dominate the entire port development effort from finance to construction, operations, and share ownership.  This increases access opportunities for the People's Liberation Army Navy vessels.  

An Update on the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 6 March 2024 a Q & A titled "The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal."

The Q and A with ICG experts covers a wide range of issues.  The one new significant fact to come out of the discussion is that the proposed Ethiopian naval base on Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast is expected to constitute 20 square kilometers of land and sea at an undetermined location rather than the earlier stated 20 kilometers of coastline.  This makes more sense as the 20 kilometers of coastline never specified how deep it would go into Somaliland or how much water area it would occupy.   

Where Will China Locate Future Naval Bases?

 AidData, a research lab at William & Mary, published in July 2023 a study titled "Harboring Global Ambitions: China's Ports Footprint and Implications for Future Overseas Naval Bases" by Alexander Wooley, Sheng Zhang, Rory Fedorochko, and Sarina Patterson.  

At the moment, China's only naval base outside China is located in Djibouti.  The study provides a shortlist of the most likely basing options in the order in which they might be prioritized by Beijing.  Four of the eight ports on the short list are located in Africa.

The eight prospects in priority order are:

--Hambantota, Sri Lanka

--Bata, Equatorial Guinea

--Gwadar, Pakistan

--Kribi, Cameroon

--Ream, Cambodia

--Luganville, Vanuatu

--Nacala Mozambique

--Nouakchott, Mauritania

Chinese Port Construction and Overseas Naval Bases

 AidData, a research lab at William & Mary, published on 25 July 2023 a study titled "Harboring Global Ambitions: China's Ports Footprint and Implications for Future Overseas Naval Bases" by Alexander Wooley, Sheng Zhang, Rory Fedorochko, and Sarina Patterson.  

The authors suggest a list of port locations--where China has invested significant resources and maintains relationships with local elites--that may be favorable locations for future Chinese naval bases.

Where Is China Looking for Its Next Overseas Naval Base?

Foreign Policy published on 27 July 2023 a commentary titled "Beijing Is Going Places--and Building Naval Bases" by Alexander Wooley and Sheng Zhang.

Based on new AidData information, the authors offer the following short list for likely future PLA Navy bases outside China: Hambantota, Sri Lanka; Bata, Equatorial Guinea; Gwadar, Pakistan; Kribi, Cameroon; Ream, Cambodia; Luganville, Vanuatu; Nacala, Mozambique; and Nouakchott, Mauritania.  

China's Indian Ocean Strategy

 The South Asia Journal published on 6 May 2023 an analysis titled "China's Strategic Objectives and Capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region" by Komal Khan, Strategic Vision Institute in Islamabad.

The author argues that China is focusing on exerting influence, mitigating its vulnerabilities, and securing its maritime trade in the Indian Ocean region.  To do so, Beijing has enhanced its economic and naval cooperation with Indian Ocean regional states by investing in new ports and pursuing long-term leases to ports in friendly countries along strategic waterways.  

Russian Naval Strategy in the Indian Ocean

 Abu Dhabi-based TRENDS Research and Advisory published on 14 May 2023 an analysis titled "The Indian Ocean: Moscow's New Naval Priority" by Stephen Blank, senior fellow Foreign Policy Research Institute.  

The study analyzes  Russia's naval strategy in the Indian Ocean.  Russian naval deployments in the Indian Ocean will, according to Moscow, allow it to deter Western missile strikes on its territory originating in the Indian Ocean and give Russia leverage over extensive trade passing through these waters.

Russian Naval Base in Sudan Stymied for Now

 Foreign Policy published on 15 July 2022 an article titled "Russia's Dreams of a Red Sea Naval Base Are Scuttled--for Now" by Amy Mackinnon, Robbie Gramer, and Jack Detsch. 

Russia's efforts over the last several years to establish a naval base at Port Sudan in the Red Sea have reportedly run afoul of internal dynamics within Sudan's military leadership, at least for the time being.  

Is Landlocked Ethiopia Planning to Build Naval Bases in the Red Sea?

 Al-Monitor published on 9 June 2021 an article titled "Ethiopia's Plan to Build Red Sea Military Bases Fuels Tension with Egypt" by Ahmed Gomaa.

Ethiopian spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dina Mufti, said on 2 June 2021 that landlocked Ethiopia is determined to build military bases in the Red Sea. 

If this is the intention of Ethiopia, it is not clear where the bases would be built.  Possibly Ethiopia's current alliance with Eritrea would provide an opportunity.  Djibouti is another possibility.  The bigger question is what is the point. 

US Senator Says China Pursuing Naval Base on Africa's Atlantic Coast

 U.S. Senator James Inhofe (Republican of Oklahoma) on 29 April 2021 asked the Director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency about the Chinese presence in Africa during a session of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  

In his question, Senator Inhofe said China "is aggressively pursuing a naval base on the west coast of Africa that would give China an enduring military presence in the Atlantic."  In his response, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency said China will "place military forces where they see they need that kind of capability" but suggested this is a long-term program.

Comment:  The Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency sidestepped any reference to a Chinese naval base on Africa's west coast.  It is not clear if Senator Inhofe was referring to a specific location or just commenting generally about the future possibility of a Chinese naval base on the west coast.   

Russia to Build Naval Base in Sudan

 The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor published on 19 November 2020 an article titled "Russia to Build Naval Base in Sudan" by Pavel Felgenhauer.  

Sudan has signed an agreement with Russia that will result in the establishment of a Russian "naval supply station" at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.  The 25-year basing agreement permits Russia to berth up to four warships, including nuclear-powered vessels.  Russia will not pay any rent, but will build the base and provide Sudan free of charge with an undetermined amount of military equipment agreed upon in a separate agreement.  

China-India Competition for Military Facilities in Indian Ocean

The Hindu published on 23 December 2015 an article titled "Seychelles Committed to Indian Naval Base" by Kallol Bhattacherjee.  The article quotes Seychelles President James Michel as stating that India and the Seychelles are moving forward with a joint naval facility on Assumption Island.  This announcement comes in the wake of China's acknowledgement that it is negotiating with Djibouti for a military facility.