The CTC Sentinel published in April 2024 an article titled "The Somali National Army Versus Al-Shabaab: A Net Assessment" by Paul D. Williams, George Washington University.
This article addresses whether the departure of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) would leave the Somali National Army (SNA) or al-Shabaab stronger militarily. The author conducted a net assessment across seven factors: size, material resources, external support, force employment, cohesion, psychological operations, and morale. He concluded the SNA would retain an advantage in terms of size, material resources, and external support but performs poorly on non-material dimensions and would remain dependent upon external finance and security assistance. Overall, al-Shabaab would be slightly militarily stronger.
