Is France Upping Its Game in the Horn of Africa?

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 17 February 2025 an analysis titled "Macron in Djibouti and Ethiopia: Is There Anything New in France's Approach to the Horn of Africa?"

As France struggles in West and Central Africa, it is trying to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa as witnessed by Emmanuel Macron's recent visit to Ethiopia and Djibouti.  So far, there is no clear indication of a major shift in France's approach to the Horn, where Paris focuses on security and economic engagement.  

Will Russia Replace France in Africa?

 The Hill published on 23 October 2023 a commentary titled "As France Pulls Out of Africa, Will Russia Step In?" by Eliot Wilson.

A spate to military coups in Africa is forcing France to pull troops from the continent--1,500 by the end of the year from Niger, 5,000 out of Mali last summer, and 400 special forces from Burkina Faso this February.  These countries will look for new allies to keep jihadis at bay and Russia's mercenary Wagner Group may be the organization of choice.  

Africa's Ukraine Dilemma

 Foreign Affairs posted on 5 September 2022 a commentary titled "Africa's Ukraine Dilemma: Why the Continent Is Caught Between Russia and the West" by Nanjala Nyabola, a Kenya-based political analyst.

Only a handful of African countries have taken a strong stance on Putin's war against Ukraine, and even those have focused primarily on denouncing aggression more broadly.  There is skepticism in African capitals about taking the Western side in a faraway war in Europe, a skepticism which is also rooted in a power imbalance between the West and African countries.  

There are also practical reasons for failing to take Ukraine's side such as Russian disinformation in Africa, significant Russian arms sales to African countries, Soviet support for earlier African liberation movements, and the current influence of Russian mercenaries in several African countries. The predominant African position is to avoid taking sides and to encourage peace and diplomacy.  

Russia's Invasion of the Ukraine Has Revived Echos of the Cold War in Africa

 Aljazeera published on 17 August 2022 an article titled "Russia, West Vie for Influence Amid African Caution on Ukraine War" by Chris Muronzi.

The article views efforts by Russia, France, and the US to sway opinion in Africa following Putin's invasion of Ukraine.  A surprising number of African countries seem little concerned about the violation of another state's territorial integrity.  

Russia in Africa: Old Ties Open Doors but Ukraine Is a Negative Factor

 The BBC posted on 28 July 2022 an article titled "Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Lavrov Shows Diplomatic Clout in Africa" by Catharine Byaruhanga.  

Most African countries voted in the UN General Assembly to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but a significant minority, including South Africa, abstained.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has just completed a four-country tour in Africa to build support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  French President Emmanuel Macron and senior U.S. officials are also travelling in Africa and making counter arguments.

French President Warns about China in Africa

Reuters published on 11 March 2019 an article titled "Macron Warns of Chinese Risk to African Sovereignty" by John Irish.

French President Emmanuel Macron on a recent visit to Djibouti cautioned that conditions attached to Chinese loans to African states could be dangerous in the long term.