Nature Communications published on 16 October 2020 an excellent study titled "Understanding and Managing New Risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" by Kevin G. Wheeler, University of Oxford, Marc Jeuland, Sanford and Duke, Jim W. Hall, University of Oxford, Edith Zagona, University of Colorado, and Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina and University of Manchester.
The authors looked at the potential risks and opportunities for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia by simulating the filling period of the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, a new normal after the reservoir fills, and a severe multi-year drought after the filling. Their analysis illustrates how during filling the Aswan High Dam reservoir in Egypt could fall to levels not seen in recent decades, although the risk of water shortage in Egypt is relatively low. The new normal (the period after the initial filling of the GERD reservoir) will benefit Ethiopia and Sudan without significantly affecting water users in Egypt. Management of multi-year droughts will require careful coordination if risks of harmful impacts are to be minimized.
Anyone suggesting the solution to this disagreement may be the bombing of the GERD should read this analysis. But alas!
