Berouk Mesfin, senior researcher, Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division of the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, published a brief analysis titled "Where Is Eritrea Heading?" He reviews the 21 January 2013 mutiny in Asmara and then looks to the future.
He concludes that political chance in Eritrea "will most likely come in the form of an extended and bitter internal struggle within the military, which is the only organised entity in Eritrea" and added "the most likely outcome will be a new authoritarian strongman."
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China-Africa Relations
- Syllabus for China-Africa Graduate Course (23 August 2024)
- China-Africa Bibliography (June 1, 2024)
- China's Security in Red Sea Region (MEI, 18 May 2021)
- Covid-19 and Chinese Soft Power in Africa (10 May 2020)
- China in Africa Testimony (8 May 2020)
- Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Meets the Belt and Road (East Asia Forum - 18 October 2018)
- China's Just another Great Power in Africa (East Asia Forum, 17 May 2018)
- Deciphering Chinese Investment in Nigeria (US-China Focus 6 October 2017)
- China's Power Projection in the Western Indian Ocean (China Brief, 20 April 2017)
- Protection of American Nationals and Interests in Africa (Paper delivered at a conference in Beijing on 9 March 2017)
- Comparing American and Chinese Business Models in Africa (Remarks made at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. on 15 November 2016)
- Africa as China's Laboratory for Third World Security Cooperation (China Brief, 6 July 2016)
- The Environmental Impact of China's FDI in Africa (Winter 2016 issue of Cornell International Law Journal)
- China's Growing Security Relationship with Africa (Remarks at Michigan State University on 28 January 2016)
- China's Investment in Africa: Environmental Implications and the Law (Remarks at Washington and Lee University School of Law in Lexington, Virginia on 23 October 2015)
- The Evolving China-Africa Security Relationship (Remarks made on 26 August 2015 at a conference in Cape Town hosted by the Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University)
- China-Africa Infrastructure Financing (Remarks at Center for Strategic and International Studies on 29 July 2015)
- China, Africa and Food Security (Remarks at Yale University on 8 July 2015)
- Environmental Impact of China's Investment in Africa (Remarks at Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies on 4 April 2015)
- China's Interest in and Strategy towards Africa (English-language original of article published in Italian-language Italianieuropei in March 2015)
- China and the United States in Africa: Cooperation or Competition? (Remarks at the University of Illinois on 16 February 2015)
- Ethiopia and China (Paper presented at the 13th International Conference of Africanists in Moscow, 27-30 May 2014)
- China Confronts Terrorism in Africa (China-US Focus, Nov. 18, 2013)
- China's Response to the Islamist Threat in Mali (Published in 21 June 2013 issue of China-US Focus)
- China and Africa: Challenges and Predictions (Speech to the Cosmopolitan Club in New York on 8 April 2013)
- China and Africa in the Xi Jinping Era (Published in The Diplomat on 25 March 2013)
- China and Africa: The Next Decade (Keynote address on 1 February 2013 during a conference on China in Africa at the the University of Denver)
- China and Africa: What Do We Know? How Do We Know It (Remarks during panel discussion at the African Studies Association conference in Philadelphia on 29 November 2012)
- China's Investments in Africa (Published in China-US Focus on 1 November 2012)
- China and Security Issues in Africa (Remarks at conference on China, Canada and Africa in Ottawa on 20 September 2012)
- China, Sudan and South Sudan (19 September 2012 comment for The Diplomat)
- China and Mozambique (Remarks in Washington on 30 July 2012)
- China, Africa and Implications for the US (Commentary posted on China-US Focus website on 12 July 2012)
- Transcript on China-Africa Business Links (Carnegie Council in New York on 15 June 2012)
- Podcast on China-Africa Business Links (Carnegie Council in New York on 15 June 2012)
- China's Security Policy in Africa and the Western Indian Ocean (International Affairs Forum - 15 May 2012)
- Emerging Powers in Africa (Remarks on 4 May 2012 at the National Defense University in Washington)
- China-Africa Testimony (House Africa Subcommittee, 29 March 2012)
- The United States Reassesses the China-Africa Relationship (French translation appeared in issue 30 of Outre-Terre, published in January 2012.)
- China-Africa Relations: The Big Picture (2011 Achebe Colloquium, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, 4 December 2011)
- China and the Horn of Africa (Middle East Studies Association, Washington, D.C., Dec. 2, 2011)
- United States and China in Africa: Advancing the Diplomatic Agenda (Remarks originally made at Virginia Military Institute 4 November 2011 and then carried in International Policy Digest on 14 November 2011)
- China's Growing Role in Africa: Implications for U.S. Policy (Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs, Dirksen Senate Office Building, 1 Nov., 2011)
- United States-China Collaboration on Health and Agricultutrre in Africa (Center for Sategic and International Studies [D.C.] and China Institute of International Studies [Beijing], Beijing, May 24, 2011)
- The Impact of China's Growing Influence in Africa (European Financial Review, April-May, 2011)
- North African Revolutions and Protests Challenge Chinese Diplomacy (China Brief, Vol. 11, No. 6, April 8, 2011)
- The Role of China in Africa: Trade, Investment and Aid (Social Investment Forum International Working Group, Washington, D.C., May 18, 2010)
- China and the Conflict in Darfur (The Brown Journal of World Affairs, fall/winter 2009)
- Africa: The United States and China Court the Continent (Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer 2009)
- China’s Involvement in African Conflict Zones (Jamestown Foundation, National Press Club, May 20, 2009)
- Chinese Involvement in African Conflict Zones (China Brief, April 2009)
- Africa at the Crossroads (chapter in Crossroads Africa: Perspectives on U.S.-China-Africa Security Affairs, CENSA, June 2009)
- Comparing Engagement with Africa by China and the United States (Indiana University, March 6 - 7, 2009)
- China's Engagement in Africa (chapter in the CSIS Africa Program report: Africa Policy in the George W. Bush Years: Recommendations for the Obama Administration, January 2009)
- Responding to China in Africa (American Foreign Policy Council, June 2008)
- China's Relations with Zimbabwe, Sudan and the DRC ( Remarks at the New England School of Law, 15 March 2008)
- An Opportunistic Ally ( Harvard International Review, Summer 2007)
- Africa, China, the United States, and Oil (CSIS Africa Policy Forum, May 2007)
- Africa, China and Health Care (PDF, Inside AISA, nos. 3 & 4, Oct./Dec., 2006, pp. 14-16)
- The China Factor in African Ethics (Policy Innovations, Dec. 2006)
- Africa and China’s Global Activism (NDU, June 20, 2006)
- Dueling Priorities For Beijing in the Horn of Africa (China Brief, Oct. 2005)
- China's Approach to East, North and the Horn of Africa (U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, July 2005)
East Africa and the Horn
- Outside Powers Vie for Influence in Red Sea Region (27 November 2020)
- Red Sea Security (May 2020 podcast)
- Competition in the Red Sea: Perspectives from the African Side (Remarks on 7 March 2019)
- Red Sea Region and U.S. Interests (USIP interview 19 December 2018)
- The Political Crisis in Ethopia (Remarks by David Shinn at panel during African Studies Association conference in Washington on 3 December 2016)
- Challenges to US Diplomacy: Dealing with Terrorism and Instability in the Horn of Africa (Remarks at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute in Annandale, Virginia on 13 October 2015)
- Neither Desperate Nor Stronger: The Adaptation of Al Shabaab (E-International Relations 3 July 2015)
- Somalia, Al-Shabaab, the Region and U.S. Policy (Remarks at William and Mary in Williamsburg, VA on 8 April 2015)
- US Policy in the Horn of Africa (Remarks at GWU Institute for Global and International Studies in October 2014)
- U.S.Policy in the Horn of Africa (Paper delivered in Moscow in May 2014 at 13th International Conference of Africanists)
- Ethiopia: Muslim-Christian Relations (Remarks at Bolling Air Force Base on 16 January 2014)
- Time to Bring Eritrea in from the Cold (posted on African Arguments on 13 January 2014)
- Somalia: Origin, Development and Future of AMISOM (University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota on 19 October 2013)
- Al-Shabaab in the Aftermath of the Attack on Nairobi's Westgate Mall (Published by eInternationalRelations on 10 October 2013)
- eInternationalRelations on 10 October 2013) U.S. Security Policy in East Africa and the Horn (Published in World Politics Review on 20 February 2013)
- People to People and Ethiopian Healthcare (Remarks made at symposium hosted by People to People at the University of Kentucky on 27 November 2012)
- Somalia: Security, AMISOM, Governance, Al-Shabaab and the Future (Commentary on e-International Relations 26 September 2012)
- Somalia, Somaliland and the US Dual Track Policy (18 May 2012 Somaliland Conference at Hilton Dulles Hotel in Virginia)
- International Efforts to Counter Al-Shabaab (e-International Relations website, 20 February 2012)
- Al-Shabaab and Somalia in the 21st Century (Jan. 2012, New York City)
- East Africa and the Horn (Chapter 4 of Al-Qaida after Ten Years of War published by Marine Corps University Press in 2011)
- Republic of South Sudan: Statehood and the Challenges Ahead (PowerPoint presentation delivered in Italy, Oct. 27, 2011
- Somali Youth radicalization (French and English versions, Royal Canadian Mounted Police Gazette, Vol. 73, No. 2, 2011)
- U.S. Policy towards the Horn of Africa (Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan, Sept. 30, 2011)
- A Proposed US Regional Strategy towards the Horn of Africa: Conflict Resolution at Local and Regional Levels (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C., 7 September, 2011)
- Water and Security in Africa (Hosted by U.S. State Department, AFRICOM, Arlington, Va., July 21-22, 2011)
- Challenges Facing Somalia (House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Human Rights and the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade, July 7, 2011)
- Sudan - Rule of Law Deployments (Hosted by Walker Institute, University of South Carolina, Coumbia, S.C., 1 July, 2011)
- Revolutionary Winds from North to South of the Sahara: Wishful Thinking? (University Club, Washington, D.C., 10 June, 2011)
- Al Shabaab's Foreign Threat to Somalia (Orbis, Vol. 55, Issue 2, 2011, pages 203-215)
- Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab and Somalia (Selfridge Air National Guard, Mount Clemens, Mich., Feb. 15, 2011)
- Somalia: Promoting Peace and Preventing Youth Radicalization (Canadian Friends of Somalia conference, Ottawa, Dec. 6-7, 2010)
- Interview (Awramba Times, Dec. 1, 2010)
- Al-Shabaab tries to take control in Somalia (Foreign Policy Research Institute, Nov., 2010)
- Libyan policy in the Horn of Africa (Center for Naval Analyses, Oct. 25, 2010)
- Remarks to Somali Transitional Federal Government Members of Parliament (Mayflower Renaissance Hotel, June 24, Washington, D.C.)
- Somalia and the International Community: Facing Reality (9th Horn of Africa Conference Focus on Somalia, June 4, Lund, Sweden)
- United States-Somali Relations: Local, National and International Dimensions (Center for African Studies, Ohio State University, April 26, 2010)
- A Vision for the Horn of Africa (Advocacy for Ethiopia, Ethiopian National Priorities Consultative Process, Virginia, April 9, 2010)
- Challenges to Peace and Stability in the Horn of Africa (World Affairs Council of N. California, March 12, 2010)
- Ways to Contribute to the Future of Ethiopia (Ethiopian American Youth Initiative, Ethiopian Embassy, Washington, D.C., Jan. 2, 2010)
- The Intensity, Spread and Economics of Somali Piracy (Controlling Maritime Piracy, Harvard Kennedy School, Dec. 10-12, 2009)
- Al-Shabaab and the Future of Somalia (Jamestown Foundation conference, National Press Club, Dec. 9, 2009)
- Ethiopian Armed Groups (The Future of Armed Groups in Africa, conference hosted by State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research and U.S. Africa Command, Germany, Nov. 13-14, 2009)
- Remarks on the Horn of Africa (Conference hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the American Academy of Diplomacy, Oct. 29, 2009, Washington, D.C.)
- Somalia: Rise of Piracy and Maritime Insecurity (Maritime Piracy Summit 2009, Virginia, Sept. 22, 2009)
- Testimony before U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (Hearing on Sudan, July 30, 2009, PDF format)
- Rise of Piracy and Other Maritime Insecurity in Somalia (Somali piracy conference hosted by the National Maritime Intelligence Center and the Office of Naval Intelligence, April 7, 2009)
- Somalia’s New Government and the Challenge of Al-Shabab (PDF file, CTC Sentinel, March 2009)
- Horn of Africa: Priorities and Recommendations (Hearing before the House Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations Committee on Appropriations, March 12, 2009)
- Implications of Terrorism and Counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa (at Horn of Africa Conference - VII, Sweden, October 2008)
- Evaluating U.S. Policy Objectives and Options on the Horn of Africa (before Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 11 March 2008)
- Ethiopia and Sudan: Conflict and Cooperation in the Nile Valley (chapter in Narrating the Nile: Politics, Identities, Cultures, 2008)
- Somalia: Prospects for Lasting Peace (Joint Summit of European Parliament and US House of Representatives, 8 July 2007)
- Al-Qaeda in East Africa and the Horn (Journal of Conflict Studies, Summer 2007)
- Exploring a Comprehensive Stabilization, Reconstruction, and Counterterrorism Strategy for Somalia (before Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 6 February 2007)
- Somalia: Regional Involvement and Implications for US Policy (Paper presented on 4 October 2006 to the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in Washington, D.C.)
- Nile Basin Relations: Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia (July 2006)
- Somalia: U.S. Government Policy and Challenges (before Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 11 July 2006)
- Avoiding a Water War in the Nile Basin (Power Point at Los Alamos National Laboratory on March 16, 2006)
- Avoiding a Water War in the Nile Basin (Presentation at Los Alamos National Laboratory on March 16, 2006)
- Somaliland: The Little Country that Could (CSIS Africa Notes, Nov. 2004)
- Fighting Terrorism in East Africa and the Horn (Foreign Service Journal, Sept. 2004)
Miscellaneous
- Non-Regional Actors in Red Sea Basin (Remarks made in Amman, Jordan, on 27 April 2019)
- Five Second Tier Non-Western External Actors in Africa (21 May 2018)
- Economic Diplomacy and Africa's Foreign Partners: Focus on the United States and China (Presentation at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, on 27 June 2017)
- The Indian Ocean and Deep Seabed Mining (Posted on Young Diplomats website 3 February 2017)
- China's WTO Compliance: The US Reaction (China Policy Institute posting on 14 November 2016)
- Poverty and Terrorism in Africa (Article in the 2016 summer/fall issue of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs)
- Turkey-Africa Relations (Remarks at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Arlington, Virginia on 31 Oct. 2016)
- Africa's Changing Partnerships over the Next Decade (Remarks at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on 7 June 2016)
- Hizmet in Africa (Presentation in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on 19 May 2016 at an international conference on the Gulen Movement)
- Turkey-Africa Relations 2016 (Remarks at the Turkish-American Cultural Center in Madison, Wisconsin on 3 March 2016)
- Turkey-Sub-Sahara Africa Relations (Paper published in September 2015 by Chatham House and presented in Istanbul)
- Africa: The Good, the Bad, and the Future (Remarks at Yakima Rotary Club on 23 July 2015)
- BRICS and Africa (Remarks made to the next generation of African security leaders on 19 March 2013)
- Les pays BRICS et l'Afrique (Remarks made to the next generation of African security leaders on 19 March 2013)
- African Union Peace Operations (Remarks at national security seminar at George Washington University on 7 December 2012)
- Tolerance or War (Commentary distributed by Project Syndicate on 7 December 2012)
- Emerging Powers in Africa Update (Remarks on 13 September 2012 at the National Defense University in Washington)
- Turkey and the Horn of Africa (Remarks at Chatham House in London on 28 June 2012)
- Ethics and Foreign Affairs (5 June 2012 Q and A with Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs)
- Emerging Powers in Africa (Remarks on 4 May 2012 at the National Defense University in Washington)
- Water Crisis in Africa (Remarks at GWU on 9 April 2012)
- Water and Security in Africa (Remarks at US State Department/AFRICOM Conference in Arlington, VA on 21-22 July 2011)
- French Translation of Emerging Powers in Africa (Remarks at National Defense University in Washington on 15 June 2011)
- Portuguese Translation of Emerging Powers in Africa (Remarks at National Defense University in Washington on 15 June 2011)
- Democracy in Africa (Q and A with Journalist on 5 December 2010)
- African Refugees and Immigrants (Remarks to Ethiopian Community Development Council on 3 May 2010)
- Palestine - Visit to Nablus and Samaritan Community (Brief account of 22 June 2010 visit)
- Palestine - Visit to Gaza (Account of 20-21 June 2010 visit to Gaza)
- Palestine - Visit to Hebron (Brief account of 13 June 2010 visit)
- US Policy Themes in Sub-Saharan Africa (Published by the Elliott School of International Affairs in 2004)
China-Africa Web Sites
- Africa Files
- African Economic Research Consortium
- Centre for Chinese Studies, Stellenbosch University
- Chatham House
- China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
- CSIS Africa Policy Forum
- Forest Trends
- Forum on China Africa Cooperation
- French-language site
- German Development Institute
- Hong Kong Center on China’s Transnational Relations
- Institute for Security Studies
- Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations
- International Rivers
- Jamestown Foundation China Brief
- Open Democracy
- Pambazuka News China-Africa Watch
- Power and Interest News Report
- South African Institute for International Affairs
- The Brenthurst Foundation
- Trade Law Centre for Southern Africa
- UCLA Globalization Research Center – Africa
- UK Department for International Development
- University of Brussels
Horn of Africa Web Sites
- Addis Standard
- Association for Higher Education and Development
- Daily Nation (Kenya)
- Ethio Forum (news)
- Ethio Media
- Ethio.com (news)
- Ethiopian Economic Association
- Ethiopian Government News Agency
- Ethiopian Institute for Non-Violence Education and Peace Studies
- Ethiopian Medhin Democratic Party (opposition party)
- Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
- Ethiopian Parliament
- Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (ruling party's Web site)
- Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (opposition party)
- Ethiopian Recycler (blog)
- Ethiopian Review
- Food Security and Nutriton Analysis Unit, Somalia
- Forum for Social Studies
- Global Policy Forum - Ethiopia and Eritrea
- Horn Affairs
- Information on Southern Ethiopia
- Jimma Times
- MediaETHIOPIA (news service)
- National Archives and Library of Ethiopia
- Nazret.com Ethiopian News Portal
- Network of Ethiopian Muslims
- Official Site of the Imperial Family of Ethiopia
- Ogaden National Liberation Front (opposition party)
- Ogaden Online (Somali and English language news with a focus on Somali issues in Ethiopia)
- Ogadeni National Liberation Front
- Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (opposition party)
- Oromo Liberation Front
- People to People
- SomaliaReport (Media MONITOR)
- Standard (Kenya)
- The Ethiopian American
- The Fistula Foundation
- The Sidama Concern
- Tigrean International Solidarity for Justice and Democracy (opposition party)
- UN Political Office (Somalia)
- UNICEF
- Walta Information Center (news service)
General Web Sites for Africa
- Accord
- Africa Intelligence
- African Development Bank
- African Union
- allAfrica.com
- Amnesty International
- Arab League
- Boston University African Studies Center
- British Broadcasting Company
- Center for Global Development
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Chiefs of state and cabinet members
- CIA World Factbook
- CNN
- Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa
- Committee to Protect Journalists
- Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
- Cornell University Africana Studies and Research Center
- Council of Foreign Relations
- East African Community
- Enough
- Export-Import Bank of the U.S.
- Famine Early Warning Systems Network
- Harvard University Committee on African Studies
- Human Rights Watch Africa
- Indiana University African Studies Program
- Institute for Security Studies
- Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) Africa
- Intergovernmental Authority on Development
- International Boundaries Research Unit
- International Crisis Group
- International Monetary Fund
- International Resources Group
- Library of Congress Country Studies series
- Life and Peace Institute Horn of Africa Bulletin
- Massive bibliography on Africa
- Michigan State University African Studies Center
- Millennium Challenge Corporation
- Mo Ibrahim Foundation
- National Defense University Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- National Endowment for Democracy
- News about Africa
- Nile Basin Initiative
- Northwestern University African Studies Program
- Organization for Social Science Research in Eastern and Southern Africa
- Organization of the Islamic Conference
- Overseas Private Investment Corporation
- Program on International Policy Attitudes
- Relief Web
- Relief Web
- The Carter Center
- The George Washington University Africa Center for Health and Human Security
- Thomsen Reuters Foundation
- Transparency International
- U.S. Agency for International Development
- U.S. government press releases
- U.S. State Department
- UCLA African Studies Center
- UN Development Programme
- UN High Commissioner for Refugees
- UN Office for the Coordinator of Humanitarian Affairs
- UNICEF
- United Nations
- University of Florida Center for African Studies
- University of Pennsylvania African Studies Center
- University of Wisconsin African Studies Program
- US Institute of Peace
- Woodrow Wilson Center
- World Bank
- World Food Programme
Africa in Washington D.C.
- Africa in Transition (Amb. John Campbell)
- Africa in Washington, D.C.
- African Arguments
- China in Africa: The Real Story (Deborah Brautigam)
- ChrisBlattman.com
- Drew Hindshaw (West Africa correspondent)
- Saxafi News
- Somewhere in Africa (Shashank Bengali, Nairobi Bureau Chief, McClatchy Newspapers)
- South of West: A Journalist Out of Africa (Rob Crilly)
- The Green Nile (Andrew Scott)
- Trend Lines (World Politics Review)