Africa and China: Industrialization, Agricultural Reform or Export of Natural Resources?

The Washington Post Monkey Cage published on 24 July 2018 an article titled "Xi Jinping Is Visiting Africa This Week. Here's Why China Is Such a Popular Development Partner" by Deborah Brautigam, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Commenting on Xi Jinping's recent visit to Rwanda, Senegal, and Mauritius, the author explains that China is gaining popularity in Africa by supporting industrialization, which is the top priority of many African leaders.

The East African published on 1 August 2018 an interview with Holger A. Kray, agricultural economist at the World Bank, titled "Is East African Agriculture at Risk of Playing Second Fiddle to Oil Wealth?"

While the interview does not deal with China or industrialization, it makes the point that in several East African countries the economic policy focus should be on commercialization of agriculture rather than a reliance on the export of oil. The key challenge for Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan, says Kray, is how to support the agricultural sector to take advantage of the shift in consumer behavior and consumer demand globally towards higher quality agricultural products.

My point is that there is no single prescription for economic success in Africa's 54 countries. Some combination of industrialization, agricultural reform, resource extraction, and enhancement of the service sector is required. My concern is that the current emphasis by many African leaders, supported by China, to focus on industrialization will have disappointing results. A small number of African countries may be ready to shift significantly into industrialization; most are not. Most would be well advised at this stage of development to focus their energy on the improvement of agriculture, including policy reform.