Ethiopia Insight posted on 18 January 2021 a commentary titled "Is Ethiopia Coming Together or Falling Apart?" by Ahmed Hassen, a development worker in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
The author suggests that Ethiopia faces three most likely scenarios: (1) Abiy's government holds elections on 5 June 2021, manages internal rivalries, and mitigates external pressures; (2) the shift of political power from the north to the south pushes Ethiopia towards civil war; and (3) an internal power struggle with external pressures from Sudan and Egypt results in a wider regional war and another state of emergency.
