The International Crisis Group posted on 13 October 2023 a 42 minute podcast titled "After Six Months of War, Sudan Is Disintegrating" with Suliman Baldo, Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker.
This is an insightful discussion of the current internal situation in Sudan. Six months of fighting has destroyed much of the Khartoum region and parts of Darfur. Sudan faces the prospect of state disintegration. Although eastern and northern Sudan have been minimally affected by the fighting except for the arrival of IDPs, there is no sign of a functioning Sudanese state today. The police force, for example, is no longer operating as a normal organization.
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) is relying on its air power and artillery shelling throughout the capital region. It is in bad shape, outgunned and outmanned by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The SAF is on the defensive but still controls the military garrisons. It relies on volunteers from like-minded ethnic groups. Baldo does not see how the SAF can gain a military advantage under the current circumstances.
The RSF is ravaging private homes and businesses in the Khartoum region. Its support is also based on ethnic groups. RSF foot soldiers are following the command of individual commanders and not the leadership of the organization as there has been a serious degradation of the chain of command. The RSF is seeking to take control of all of Darfur.
Three different mediation initiatives have made almost no progress and there is minimal coordination among them. They not only need to improve coordination but to pay more attention to the situation in Darfur, which has received inadequate consideration so far.
