The International Crisis Group posted on 25 January 2024 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia's Push for Sea Access" with Christopher Clapham, University of Cambridge, and Alan Boswell.
Clapham discusses the history of Ethiopia's effort to obtain an outlet to the Red Sea and the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland. Current conflict over access to the Red Sea could extend throughout the Horn of Africa, which is a region always subject to a catastrophic war. The situation in Ethiopia is very worrying.
Addis Ababa today looks like a relatively stable bubble surrounded by instability in the regions. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is not immediately threatened but is running an idiosyncratic administration with no obvious basis of support. He is making a series of tactical alliances but losing trust in the process. The concept of manifest destiny runs strong in both Ethiopia and Somalia. Clapton concluded that the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal will eventually fall apart.
