Sudan's 2019 Protests Bring Back Memories of 1985 Government Fall

The Washington Post published on 5 February 2019 a commentary titled "What Sudan's Uprisings Says about the Nation's Past--and the Arab World's Future" by David B. Ottaway, Woodrow Wilson Center.

Harking back to the overthrow in 1985 of President Jafaar Nimeri following street protests in Khartoum, the author says the circumstances surrounding his downfall and those threatening President Omar al-Bashir with the same fate are quite similar.

I was in Khartoum during the fall of Nimeri and agree that the circumstances today are surprisingly similar to those in 1985. There is, however, at least one important difference. Al-Bashir learned from the events in 1985 and has made a much greater effort to ensure the loyalty of the security services. Unless and until there are cracks in the security apparatus, he may be able to hold on.

Realizing the Potential of Africa's Economies

The McKinsey Global Institute has just published a comprehensive report titled "Realizing the Potential of Africa's Economies."

It contains the following sections:

--Africa's growth paths have diverged, but long-term fundamentals remain strong.
--Serving Africa's markets: a $5.6 trillion opportunity.
--Unleashing an African industrial revolution.
--The rise of corporate Africa.
--Sustaining momentum--imperatives for government.

Violent Islamist Extremism and Terror in Africa

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in October 2015 a study titled "Violent Islamist Extremism and Terror in Africa" by Jakkie Cilliers, executive director of ISS in Pretoria.  The paper presents on overview of large-scale violence by Islamist extremists in key African countries, especially Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, and Somalia. 

ISS published in October 2015 a companion piece by Cilliers titled "Future (Im)perfect? Mapping Conflict, Violence and Extremism in Africa."  It examines the high levels of non-state conflict in the Middle East and Africa compared to the rest of the world and the systemic imbalances that drive instability.

ESAT Television Program on Democracy

The Washington-based TV station ESAT asked me to join a program focused on democracy.  Assegid Habtewold was the moderator and Getachew Metaferia, political science professor at Morgan State University, was the other participant. 

The wide ranging hour long program covered democracy, freedom, prosperity, Francis Fukuyama and the end of history, Hegel, Marx, globalization, technology, the Arab Spring, revolutionary democracy and developmental democracy in Ethiopia.

Q & A on China-Africa and Ethiopia

A crowdsourced consulting company, Wikistrat, asked me to respond to several questions concerning China-Africa relations and the stability of Ethiopia.  The three China-Africa questions deal with special economic zones in Africa, a possible African backlash to China's growing presence in Africa, and possible Chinese military intervention in Africa related to post-Arab Spring security threats. 

Sudan and the Arab Spring

The Small Wars Journal published on 29 March 2013 a brief analysis titled "Sudan: African Sequel to the Arab Spring?" by Jason B. Nicholson, a US Army Africa Foreign Area Officer assigned to the US embassy in Kampala, Uganda.  He explains why Sudan has so far avoided the Arab Spring but suggests the story may not have yet played out.

Sudan after the Division

The Wilson Center in Washington published in March 2012 a paper titled "United We Stand, Divided We Fall:" The Sudans after the Split. The principal contributors are Alan Goulty, former UK ambassador to Sudan and former UK special representative to Sudan, and Nureldin Satti, former Sudanese diplomat and UNESCO employee. Goulty and Satti are co-chairs of the Sudan Working Group at the Wilson Center. Click here to read the report.

Goulty and Satti focus on recent developments in the aftermath of a messy divorce of Sudan and South Sudan. They discuss the conflicts in Abyei, South Kordofan and the Nuba Mountains, the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, North and South differences on oil revenue, internal political rivalry and governance issues, and the mindsets, beliefs and biases of the leadership in Sudan and South Sudan.