More Commentary on Secession of Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 13 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Tigray Must Rebuild Before It Considers Breaking Away" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.

The author concluded that the secession of Tigray Region "undertaken hastily, without a democratic mandate or the requisite civic institutions, cannot be regarded as an authentic realization of freedom."

Tigray Secession Movement in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 July 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Needs Democracy Before Secession" by Abrar Fitwi, St. Mary's College in Indiana.  

The author comments on the agenda of the recently created Tigrayan diaspora advocacy group called Voice of Independent Tigray (VIT) based in Maryland.  While the author does not oppose self-determination, he argues that it must be based on a democratic foundation or it will become something hollow or worse, oppressive.  

Comment:  Tigrayans need to ask themselves at least one more question.  Would a democratic and independent Tigray be economically viable or just another small, landlocked state largely dependent on foreign assistance?   

Constitutional Reform in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 5 July 2023 a commentary titled "Could Constitutional Reform End Ethiopia's Political Forever War?" by Leul Estifanos, freelance court reporter.

Some Ethiopians see ethnic federalism as the source of all its ills while others see it as the remedy.  The main political fault lines emerging in Ethiopian politics are diverging divisions among those who envisage a multinational federal or centralized state, federal or otherwise.  

There is no easy way to bridge Ethiopia's ideological divisions.  This raises the question of constitutional reform or change.  The author argues that constitutional change must be based on a broad consensus and not be rushed.  

New Political Alignment in Ethiopia Looks Toward Tigray's Secession

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 September 2021 a commentary titled "TPLF-OLA Alliance Is a Prelude to Tigray's Secession" by Marishet Mohammed Hamza, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Switzerland. 

The author argues that bringing down the federal government is the apparent motive behind the alliance between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the TPLF, but it is also aimed at preparing for the secession of Tigray Region from Ethiopia.  The idea is to support the OLA's entry into power, obtain approval from an OLA-dominated government for a referendum on secession, and then seek the independence of Tigray.  

Solving Ethiopia's Internal Border Problems

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 July 2021 a commentary titled "A Legal Solution to Ethiopia's Military Problems in and around Tigray" by an anonymous author.  

A neutral arbitral tribunal composed of international experts could potentially resolve the conflicting territorial claims in Ethiopia, especially in western Tigray.  The commentary also discusses the issue of secession and use of Article 39 of Ethiopia's constitution.  

Ethiopia: Ethnic Issues Beyond Tigray

 The International Crisis Group broadcast on 4 December 2020 a 28 minute podcast titled "As Conflicts Mount, Where Does Ethiopia Go from Here?" with Adem Kassie Abebe, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

Numerous cases of ethnic violence continue in Ethiopia that extend well beyond Tigray Region.  The author believes the overriding issue in Ethiopia today is the conflict between ethnic federalism and pan-Ethiopianism.  Abiy Ahmed, he argues, is trying to occupy the  middle ground between these two philosophies although his opponents see him in the pan-Ethiopian camp.  

Could Ethiopia Break Apart?

 The BBC News posted on 4 September 2020 a story titled "Why There Are Fears that Ethiopia Could Break Up" by Desta Gebremedhin.  

The postponement of national elections while they still go forward in Tigray Region, raising concern this may be the first step towards secession, increasing ethnic nationalism throughout the country, and the large number of political arrests by the Abiy Ahmed government, pose serious challenges to the unity of Ethiopia.

I have argued in recent months that Ethiopia has the history, experience, and the capacity to "muddle through" this crisis, but the growing challenges now suggest I could be wrong unless the "better angels" in all political factions step forward soon to preserve the unity of the nation.   

Ethiopia: An Independent Tigray?

Ethiopia Insight posted on 28 September 2019 a commentary titled "The Republic of Tigray?" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare, a human rights activist.

The author discusses the debate in Tigray where groups are arguing for and against the secession of Tigray from Ethiopia, concluding that the idea of an independent Tigray nation is premature.

Somaliland's Secession from Somalia

The Palgrave Series in African Borderland Studies published in 2019 Secessionism in African Politics with a chapter titled "Against the Grain: Somaliland's Secession from Somalia" by Markus Virgil Hoehne, University of Leipzig.

The author argues that Somaliland's secession from Somalia did not follow careful cost-benefit calculations or involve the bargaining of a minority with a majority in power or a center. Rather, the unilateral declaration of independence of Somaliland was the unforeseen result of an anti-regime struggle.

Radicalization in Kenya

The Institute for Security Studies published in September 2014 a paper titled "Radicalisation in Kenya: Recruitment to al-Shabaab and the Mombasa Republican Council" by Anneli Botha.

The goal of the paper is to determine why and how individuals join al-Shabaab and the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC).  It is based on interviews with Kenyan and Somali-Kenyan individuals associated with al-Shabaab and the MRC.  The author emphasizes that the organizations have different goals.  Al-Shabaab pursues an Islamist terrorist agenda while the MRC pursues a secessionist agenda.  He concludes that as long as Kenyans exclusively identify on an ethnic/religious basis that is perceived to be under threat, radicalization will increase. 

Movement on Kenya Coast to Secede

The Good Governance Africa website recently ran a piece on grievances along the coast of Kenya that have resulted in a movement to secede. Led by the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC), the grievances revolve around economic marginalization of the people who live permanently on the coast.

Click here to read the article.

Somalia and Somaliland

Abukar Arman, Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) special envoy to the United States, posted a provocative commentary on 13 June 2012 titled Sustainable Peace: Why Somaliland Matters.

His basic argument is that there is now more discussion, at least in the Somali diaspora, among Somalis from both Somalia and Somaliland about ways "to end the status quo and settle our differences." He added that there is even a growing willingness by cultural elders and clan leaders in Somaliland to break ranks with the official secessionist position. He remains critical of Ethiopian motives in the region and the U.S. dual track policy towards Somalia. His piece should keep the debate alive.

Click here to read the commentary.

Sudan after the Division

The Wilson Center in Washington published in March 2012 a paper titled "United We Stand, Divided We Fall:" The Sudans after the Split. The principal contributors are Alan Goulty, former UK ambassador to Sudan and former UK special representative to Sudan, and Nureldin Satti, former Sudanese diplomat and UNESCO employee. Goulty and Satti are co-chairs of the Sudan Working Group at the Wilson Center. Click here to read the report.

Goulty and Satti focus on recent developments in the aftermath of a messy divorce of Sudan and South Sudan. They discuss the conflicts in Abyei, South Kordofan and the Nuba Mountains, the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, North and South differences on oil revenue, internal political rivalry and governance issues, and the mindsets, beliefs and biases of the leadership in Sudan and South Sudan.

South Sudan and Secession in Africa

The Brenthurst Foundation in South Africa published a report in January 2012 titled The First Crack in Africa's Map? Secession and Self-Determination after South Sudan. The author, Terence McNamee, is the Deputy Director of the Brenthurst Foundation.

The discussion paper draws on extensive discussions between senior policy makers and academics at a high-level workshop convened by the Brenthurst Foundation in collaboration with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in September 2011.

The paper concludes that while there is no evidence that South Sudan's secession has made independence more likely for other would-be states in Africa, such as Somaliland or Cabinda, the idea of self-determination is not on the wane in Africa. Nevertheless, the obstacles to independent statehood appear as formidable as ever.