Analysis of Situation in Mali and Algeria

Krechba gas plant, Algeria/Flickr

Anouar Boukhars, a non-resident scholar in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, published on 23 January 2013 a good analysis titled What's Next for Mali and Algeria?

He concluded that the message from the attack on the gas field at In Amenas in Algeria was clear.  Algeria will be firm in dealing with terrorists, but its counterterrorism units are not trained for rescue missions that require precision and utmost care to minimize civilian casualties.  The hostage crisis demonstrated the limits of Algeria's approach to fighting violent extremism.  Algeria only succeeded in internationalizing its war with the Islamists.

Boukhars added that the ruling class in Bamako seems more interested in recapturing the north of Mali and "restoring an intolerable status quo ante than in facilitating national reconciliation, recovery, and reconstruction."

Boko Haram and Links to Al-Shabaab

Jacob Zenn, an analyst with The Jamestown Foundation in Washington wrote a good piece on Boko Haram in the 14 January 2013 issue of the CTC Sentinel.  While it focuses primarily on Nigeria and Boko Haram links in the Sahel region, it provides some evidence of cooperation between Boko Haram and al-Shabaab.  Zenn argues in Boko Haram's International Connections that Boko Haram received training in Somalia from al-Shabaab, which led to the suicide bombing of the Federal Police headquarters and the UN headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria.