Risks to stability in Sudan and Ethiopia

The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington released two studies in June 2011 that deal with assessing risk in Sudan and Ethiopia.

The one on Sudan (PDF) is authored by Richard Downie and Brian Kennedy.The key stress points are:

• Sudan’s long term stability depends on whether the country’s North and South can reach and fully implement equitable agreements on the terms of their separation in July 2011.
• North Sudan faces a highly volatile period during the next decade. The ruling National Congress Party will face growing calls for political change, an economic slump, and the possibility of armed challenges from within. There is the added risk of contagion from the uprisings seen elsewhere in North Africa. The regime will most likely use violence to confront these challenges. The prospect of civil war cannot be ruled out.
• South Sudan faces the enormous challenge of the need to establish a functioning state with few resources in the face of serious security challenges. Its stability will depend on establishing its legitimacy as a state, which will mean being able to provide services to its citizens and keeping them safe. The next decade is likely to see slow progress checked by frequent reversals.

The one on Ethiopia (PDF) is authored by Terence Lyons. The key stress points are:

• In the short to medium terms, Ethiopia is likely to remain stable but brittle. The authoritarian ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), has consolidated power across all levels of government and society, efficiently suppressing political opposition.
• The choice of a long-term successor to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is likely to expose tensions within the ruling EPRDF and its ethnically defined sub-parties, and exacerbate friction between some of Ethiopia’s most volatile regions.
• Ethiopia faces multiple security threats, which taken alone can be contained by the military but if combined would threaten to overwhelm the state, triggering serious instability and violence. Constant vigilance is required by Ethiopia to prevent its enemies in Eritrea and Somalia from linking up with internal armed groups such as the Oromo Liberation Front and the Ogaden National Liberation Front.

U.S.-China collaboration in Africa

I am attaching the text of a paper that I delivered in Beijing on 24 May, 2011, at a joint conference hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington and the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) in Beijing.

The paper emphasizes the challenges facing U.S.-China collaboration in Africa, but suggests cooperation in health and agriculture should be possible and also benefit Africans.

This is a draft of a paper commissioned by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The final version will be published by CSIS later in 2011.

United States-China Collaboration on Health and Agriculture in Africa

African conflicts and choices for U.S. diplomacy

The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the American Academy of Diplomacy co-hosted a conference on October 29, 2009, to examine the role of diplomacy in U.S. relations with Africa. The final report titled "African Conflicts and U.S. Diplomacy: Roles and Choices" (PDF file) appeared in January 2010. I made the presentation at the conference concerning the Horn of Africa. The participants concluded that the United States faces a far more competitive environment in Africa than in previous decades, with emerging powers — most notably China, India, Brazil and a number of smaller Asian states — making major political and economic plays, and with regional organizations, transnational influences and African civil societies asserting themselves more and more in national affairs. As a result, the United States will need to identify how best to use its influence in Africa, which policy areas and places it should prioritize and how to balance effectively the use of diplomatic, military, and developmental tools. The report picks out the major topics to emerge from the conference and presents a collage of the main opinions and the points of consensus that emerged. Click here to listen to a recording of the conference.

Book launch tomorrow

I will be making a presentation at tomorrow's launch for the book "U.S. Africa Policy beyond the Bush Years: Critical Challenges for the Obama Administration," edited by Jennifer Cooke and J. Stephen Morrison. I am a contributor to the book, along with Joel Barkan, William Bellamy, Timothy Carney, Chester Crocker, Michelle Gavin, David Goldwyn, Princeton Lyman, and Phillip Nieburg. Below are some more details about the program tomorrow, which is sponsored by the CSIS Africa Program, and which will be at the Basement Level Conference Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. (map). Opening remarks by Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, U.S. Department of State 5 - 5:30 p.m. - Cocktail Reception 5:30 - 6:30 p.m. - Opening Remarks and Roundtable Discussion with Chapter Authors A new report from the CSIS Africa Program offers a comprehensive assessment of U.S. Africa policy during the Bush years and provides recommendations in several key areas to the new Obama administration. At the event, a cocktail reception will be held to honor U.S. Africa policymakers from the previous and current administrations. The reception will be followed by a roundtable discussion with contributors to the report on how Africa will compete as a U.S. foreign policy priority in this current era. Copies of the publication will be on-hand for distribution. Please RSVP to the CSIS Africa Program at Africa@csis.org to attend.

Audio for interview with Center for Strategic and International Studies

Click below to hear my five-minute interview with CSIS's David Henek on China’s Engagement in Africa. My paper is accessible for download in PDF format here.

My chapter is forthcoming in a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Africa Program

My chapter "China's Engagement in Africa" (PDF) is forthcoming in CSIS' report Africa Policy in the George W. Bush Years: Recommendations for the Obama Administration. The publication will be available soon in hard copy. Here's the synopsis of my chapter:

The end of Cold War interests in Africa and more recently a predominant U.S. focus on counterterrorism and humanitarian assistance have led to a decline in U.S. influence on the continent. At the same time, the dramatic expansion of China’s economy in recent decades has resulted in a huge increase of imported raw materials, especially oil, from Africa and a more vigorous and complex engagement between Beijing and various African capitals. China’s policy has changed since the 1960s from ideological support for liberation groups and revolutionary governments to a pragmatic, comprehensive, political and economic relationship with most states on the continent. While China is not the only emerging power expanding its ties with Africa, the speed and scale of China’s expansion in the last decade warrant special attention from U.S. policymakers, both in seeking areas of potential collaboration and in mitigating potential tensions and differences.