China and African Debt Repayment

 Panda Paw Dragon Claw posted on 11 January 2021 an analysis titled "Debt Repayment Issues in Highly-indebted BRI Countries: Risks and Opportunities in the New Year" by Christoph Nedopil and Mengdi Yue.  

China has become the world's largest bilateral creditor.  China still lacks a published strategy to deal with the debt issue holistically and together with other creditors.  This analysis identifies ten countries that have become especially vulnerable because they must pay 25 percent to 75 percent of their total debt service to China between 2021 and 2024.  Four of the ten are in Africa: Djibouti, Republic of Congo, Angola, and Comoros.  

China, Djibouti, Sri Lanka and Debt Equity Swaps

China Brief published on 13 April 2020 an article titled "Mind the Trap: What Basing Rights in Djibouti and Sri Lanka Reveal about the Limitations of Debt as a Tool of Chinese Military Expansion" by Scott Wingo, PhD candidate at the University of Pennsylvania.

The author looks at China's debt equity swap with Sri Lanka for a 99 year lease over the Hambantota Port and suggests it will not necessarily lead to guaranteed naval access by China. He describes China's position in Djibouti as not a "debt trap" but a voluntary exchange of bank credit for Chinese naval access.