The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor published on 14 November 2023 an analysis titled "Russia in the Red Sea: Converging Wars Obstruct Russian Plans for Naval Port in Sudan (Part Three)" by Andrew McGregor.
Russia was well advanced in obtaining Sudanese approval to establish a naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast before the outbreak of conflict in April 2023 between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Moscow had good relations with both the SAF and the RSF before the beginning of conflict. But Russia's mercenary Wagner Group has been one of the primary backers of the RSF, which has caused deep concern within the SAF and caused it to put on hold any approval for a Russian base.
Comment: An RSF military victory in Sudan might revive the prospects for a Russian military base, but the SAF controls the Red Sea coast for now. In any event, Sudan would almost certainly remain unstable, and Russia could spend a lot of money creating a base and then find itself in possession of a white elephant.
