Swaziland: Taiwan's Lone Holdout in Africa

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 31 May 2018 a commentary titled "Taiwan Has Lost All Its Friends in Africa--except eSwatini" by Peter Fabricius, ISS consultant.

Following Burkina Faso's recent recognition of China, the article concludes that Beijing's "One China" policy is seen as so clearly non-negotiable that African states have simply given in to China's increasingly muscular diplomacy.

Burkina Faso Breaks Ties with Taiwan Leaving only Swaziland in Africa

Reuters published on 24 May 2018 an article titled "Taiwan Loses Second Ally in a Month Amid China Pressure" by Thiam Ndiaga and Jess Macy Yu.

Burkina Faso announced on 24 May that it had cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan, leaving Swaziland as the only country in Africa that still recognizes Taiwan. This move is not unexpected. China's trade with Burkina Faso has been much greater than Taiwan's for many years. Burkina Faso recognized China from 1973 until 1994, when it broke relations with Beijing and recognized Taipei. The government of Burkina Faso has not yet announced recognition of China, but will almost certainly do so soon.

Burkina Faso and Swaziland: Taiwan's Last Two Partners in Africa

Bloomberg published on 24 January 2017 an article titled "Chinese Billions Fail to Sway Taiwan's Last Two Allies in Africa" by Pauline Bax, Simon Gongo, and Lungile Dlamini.

The article concludes that neither Swaziland nor Burkina Faso are looking to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China as Gambia and Sao Tome and Principe have done in the past year.

Sao Tome Switches Recognition from Taiwan to China

The New York Times published on 22 December 2016 an article titled "A Small African Nation Severs Ties with Taiwan, and Beijing Applauds" by Mike Ives.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry announced on 21 December 2016 that the West African island nation of Sao Tome and Principe had broken relations while China welcomed the switch to Beijing. This reduces the number of countries having formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan to 21. This number includes only 2 in Africa: Swaziland and Burkina Faso. Gambia broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2013 and was recognized by China in March 2016. The diplomatic truce between Taiwan and China is over and Beijing will almost certainly pursue vigorously formal relations with the other 21 countries.

China Re-establishes Diplomatic Ties with Gambia

Bloomberg Business published on 18 March 2016 an article titled "China's Gambia Move Reminds Tsai of Power to Isolate Taiwan."

China formally re-established relations with Gambia on 17 March, more than two years after the West African nation severed ties with Taiwan.  Throughout the eight-year presidency of Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan, China and Taiwan had an informal agreement not to steal diplomatic recognition from the other party.  This policy held until after the election this year in Taiwan of opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen. 

After Gambia broke relations with Taiwan in November 2013, only 22 small states, including the Holy See, maintained diplomatic relations with Taipei.  Today, only three countries in Africa have relations with Taiwan: Sao Tome and Principe, Burkina Faso, and Swaziland.  China's recognition of Gambia may portend a stepped up effort by China to obtain the recognition of these African countries and others that still recognize Taiwan. 

China's Sinohydro has already agreed to replace Gambia's aging electricity supply system, although the terms of the project are not clear.

On 18 March 2016 Taiwan strongly protested the resumption of Gambia-China diplomatic ties.

Chinese Investment in Southern Africa's Cotton Sector

The China-Africa Research Initiative at the School for Advanced International Studies in Washington published in  February 2015 a policy brief titled "Assessing the Impact of Chinese Investment on Southeast Africa's Cotton: Moving up the Value Chain?" by Tang Xiaoyang, Tsinghua University. 

By analyzing the effects of Chinese investment on the cotton sector in southern Africa, the author identifies challenges and opportunities for the future of the textile industry in Africa.  While cheap textile imports from Asia have undermined manufacturing in southern Africa, investment from Asia may provide an opportunity for growth.