HAL Open Science recently published an upcoming journal article titled "L'Afrique, la Chine et le tarif zero" by Thierry Pairault.
This article analyses the actual as opposed to theoretical effects of China's zero tariff policy on African exports. It demonstrates that the spectacular growth in Chinese imports from Africa is driven by extractive commodities that have already entered China duty-free before expanding the policy.
Measurable effects appear only in a few specific agricultural commodities and exclusively in countries with adequate logistical capacity. Landlocked countries, the stated beneficiaries of the policy, benefit the least. Chinese zero tariffs, in their current form, are a necessary but insufficient condition for African industrialization or significant increases in exports to China.
