War on the Rocks published on 17 February 2023 a commentary titled "Mercenary Shocks: What the War in Ukraine Will Eventually Mean for Africa" by Raphael Parens, independent researcher living in Republic of Congo.
Africa, particularly the Sahel region, is acutely vulnerable to mercenary interventions because of a lack of trust in government. The length and severity of the war in Ukraine will determine the volume of the mercenary influx of Russia's Wagner Group and others into Africa. There may be as many as 50,000 Wagner Group mercenaries looking for new contracts when the war ends in Ukraine. Russia will likely want to deploy more of them to Africa.
