Monday, December 11, 2023

Will China Help Secure Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea?

 Because of the large volume of Chinese exports and imports that pass through the Red Sea and Suez Canal and the relationship of this geostrategic territory to the success of the Belt and Road Initiative, China probably has more interest from a commercial point of view than any other country in the safety and freedom of navigation through these waters.  China is also in a position to contribute to the protection of shipping in the Red Sea.  It maintains a three-ship PLA naval task force in the Gulf of Aden/Red Sea region as a hangover from the days of Somali piracy.  It has a naval base in Djibouti at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. It has constructed and owns extensive commercial shipping infrastructure in the Suez Canal Zone, Djibouti, and along Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast.  The Gulf International Forum spelled out China's commercial and military interests in the region in a 21 July 2023 article titled "China's Dual Strategy in the Red Sea: Balancing Economic Expansion and Military Presence" by Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco.  

Recent drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Iranian-supported Houthis in Yemen, which borders the southern end of the waterway, do not appear to exempt vessels from any particular country. The United States also has naval ships in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden and is part of Combined Task Force 153, which is designed to ensure freedom of navigation in the region.  Washington is trying to expand the task force so that there are sufficient military assets in place to deter Houthi threats to maritime trade in these waters.  The Washington Post reported on this effort in an article dated 10 December 2023 titled "U.S. Seeking Partners to Safeguard Ships after Red Sea Attacks" by Dan Lamothe and Kareem Fahim.  

This raises the question what China is prepared to do to protect shipping through the Red Sea.  Although it is highly unlikely that China would participate in the American-influenced Combined Task Force 153, it is in Beijing's interest to take some kind of action.  China has leverage with Iran, which controls Yemen's Houthis.  China is now the largest purchaser of Iranian crude and early this year brokered a diplomatic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  If China is not prepared to join the international naval effort, it should, at a minimum, use its leverage with Iran to reign in the Houthis.