New Problems for Somalia's Jubaland

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Nairobi published on 11 July 2013 a brief analysis titled "A New Solution that Brings New Problems for Somalia's Jubaland" by Emmanuel Kisiangani, senior researcher, and Hawa Noor, research intern, at ISS.

Somalia: Another View on Jubaland

The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies (HIPS), a Mogadishu-based independent, non-partisan, non-profit policy research and analysis organization, has just published a paper titled "The Kismaayo Crisis: Options for Compromise."

The paper argues that the growing crisis in Jubaland has the potential to undermine the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and threatens to bring Somalia back to the brink of civil war.  On 15 May 2013, the Kenyan-backed Ras Kamboni group declared the formation of Jubaland by incorporating Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions.  But al-Shabaab still controls Middle Juba and the SFG recently established a local administration in Gedo.   HIPS concludes the viability of Jubaland state is tenuous.

A window of opportunity remains for an amicable settlement of the crisis.  Compromise is the only way forward.  All key players have legitimate concerns but their hardline positions are counterproductive.  HIPS lays out a series of steps for dealing with the crisis. 

Shinn Commentary on Somalia

The web site e-International Relations asked me to comment on the situation in Somalia. My commentary titled "Somalia: Security, AMISOM, Governance, Al-Shabaab and the Future" ran on 26 September 2012, although it was written several days earlier. Among other comments, I said that the "Somali government, Kenyan forces and Ras Kamboni faction will almost certainly take Kismayu in the coming weeks."

Click here to read the commentary.